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I find the logic in the article pretty funny. > [T]he best way to make it is you collect as much data as you can, you immerse yourself in that data, but then [

I find the logic in the article pretty funny. > [T]he best way to make it is you collect as much data as you can, you immerse yourself in that data, but then [throw all that data away and decide based on personal whim]

sudhirj 8y ago
That’s sounds worse than it is. I think a better phrasing would be “read as much information as you can, and then sleep on it and go with the first option your subconscious tells you to go with”. Or gut, or instinct or ‘feel’. Informed intuition is a wonderful thing.
- jaggederest 8y ago
  I think that's exactly backwards. I think you review data to use your intuition to form the hypothesis or question, and then look for empirical data to try to falsify it. Putting intuition at the end of the decision making process is a pretty solid way to screw the entire thing up.
  - sudhirj 8y ago
    Falsification is part of the data review - the first step is always to eliminate solutions that obviously ie provably won’t work. The decision making process, both for Amazon HQ is inherently subjective / has too many dimensions to make an objective decision. i.e. the process is for selecting out of the final 20, that have been fully vetted and feasibility established. Or for deciding among three finalist engineers who’ve passed all interviews and tests and you can only hire one. Or schools or colleges or whatever.
    - jaggederest 8y ago
      That's how you end up making unconsconably biased decisions though. Oops, accidently hired the candidate who looks the most like me AGAIN, darn the luck
matchagaucho 8y ago
"Go with your gut" is code word for "which HQ2 city offered the greatest tax exemptions" ;-) Oregon gave Intel a 30 year property tax exemption, worth $2B, to establish their their HQ2 fabs near Hillsboro. Wouldn't be surprised if Amazon is asking for similar. https://www.oregonlive.com/silicon-forest/index.ssf/2014/08/intels_tax_break_compare_it_to.html https://www.oregonlive.com/silicon-forest/index.ssf/2014/08/...
- lucas_membrane 8y ago
  That would be quaint. The standard price for big investment now is a 50-year tax break.
thucydides 8y ago
If that's the process Bezos generally uses to make decisions, it seems to have worked fairly well for him.
endorphone 8y ago
There was an old study that made the rounds, which I cannot find at the moment, that corporation headquarter moves overwhelming move towards the CEO's home. They do lots of studies and analysis and claims of doing what's best for the company, but in the end the primary driving force is the convenience of a single person (and everyone who reports to that person weighting and biasing to favor the desired outcome).

sudhirj 8y ago

That’s sounds worse than it is. I think a better phrasing would be “read as much information as you can, and then sleep on it and go with the first option your subconscious tells you to go with”. Or gut, or instinct or ‘feel’. Informed intuition is a wonderful thing.

jaggederest 8y ago
I think that's exactly backwards. I think you review data to use your intuition to form the hypothesis or question, and then look for empirical data to try to falsify it. Putting intuition at the end of the decision making process is a pretty solid way to screw the entire thing up.
- sudhirj 8y ago
  Falsification is part of the data review - the first step is always to eliminate solutions that obviously ie provably won’t work. The decision making process, both for Amazon HQ is inherently subjective / has too many dimensions to make an objective decision. i.e. the process is for selecting out of the final 20, that have been fully vetted and feasibility established. Or for deciding among three finalist engineers who’ve passed all interviews and tests and you can only hire one. Or schools or colleges or whatever.
  - jaggederest 8y ago
    That's how you end up making unconsconably biased decisions though. Oops, accidently hired the candidate who looks the most like me AGAIN, darn the luck

matchagaucho 8y ago

"Go with your gut" is code word for "which HQ2 city offered the greatest tax exemptions" ;-) Oregon gave Intel a 30 year property tax exemption, worth $2B, to establish their their HQ2 fabs near Hillsboro. Wouldn't be surprised if Amazon is asking for similar. https://www.oregonlive.com/silicon-forest/index.ssf/2014/08/intels_tax_break_compare_it_to.html https://www.oregonlive.com/silicon-forest/index.ssf/2014/08/...

lucas_membrane 8y ago
That would be quaint. The standard price for big investment now is a 50-year tax break.

thucydides 8y ago

If that's the process Bezos generally uses to make decisions, it seems to have worked fairly well for him.

endorphone 8y ago

There was an old study that made the rounds, which I cannot find at the moment, that corporation headquarter moves overwhelming move towards the CEO's home. They do lots of studies and analysis and claims of doing what's best for the company, but in the end the primary driving force is the convenience of a single person (and everyone who reports to that person weighting and biasing to favor the desired outcome).