3 ms·

I agree with the point that he has a very significant chance, wouldn't even disagree that he's the favorite (wouldn't agree either, just because I don't know al

I agree with the point that he has a very significant chance, wouldn't even disagree that he's the favorite (wouldn't agree either, just because I don't know all the indicators precisely enough). However, it's worth noting that his ratings have never been above 50%, whereas all three of those presidents had honeymoon periods above 50% right after being elected, and returned to above 50% approval before being re-elected. Saying his approval ratings are comparable is technically true, but a little misleading. It would be accurate to say "some presidents had similarly bad approval numbers, but recovered and were re-elected. If his approval numbers rise, like theirs did, that would suggest he'll win."

adamrezich 8y ago
The biggest difference between 2020 and past elections is: who even stands a chance of beating Trump? His opposition party is in shambles and I can't think of a single solid candidate who would do well running against him. Sanders was the closest thing to a viable opponent for him and the Democrats nipped his then-rapidly-rising support in the bud by going with HRC instead. The Democrats have become "The F Trump Party," obstructionist in their own words... but support for Trump is basically at an all-time high, so this isn't a very effective strategy. Theoretically the right candidate could come along, powerful, charismatic, and well-versed in Trump's style of politics, and "put him in his place" ...but somehow I have a hard time seeing that happen, looking around at the potential Democrat 2020 candidates today. In fact I think there's a nontrivial chance of a third party viral literal meme candidate becoming more popular than the Democrat candidate in 2020. If anyone can name some potential candidates they see as viable I'd be interested in looking into them if I haven't already, but like I said, for the time being 2020 looks like a completely one-sided fight.
- thrower123 8y ago
  Boaty McBoatface has a better chance than the current slate of potential democratic candidates.

adamrezich 8y ago

The biggest difference between 2020 and past elections is: who even stands a chance of beating Trump? His opposition party is in shambles and I can't think of a single solid candidate who would do well running against him. Sanders was the closest thing to a viable opponent for him and the Democrats nipped his then-rapidly-rising support in the bud by going with HRC instead. The Democrats have become "The F Trump Party," obstructionist in their own words... but support for Trump is basically at an all-time high, so this isn't a very effective strategy. Theoretically the right candidate could come along, powerful, charismatic, and well-versed in Trump's style of politics, and "put him in his place" ...but somehow I have a hard time seeing that happen, looking around at the potential Democrat 2020 candidates today. In fact I think there's a nontrivial chance of a third party viral literal meme candidate becoming more popular than the Democrat candidate in 2020. If anyone can name some potential candidates they see as viable I'd be interested in looking into them if I haven't already, but like I said, for the time being 2020 looks like a completely one-sided fight.

thrower123 8y ago
Boaty McBoatface has a better chance than the current slate of potential democratic candidates.