3 ms·
The space shuttle had 135 flights, of which 2 were TPK’s. So a 1 in 68 chance of failure. And that’s on a man-rated launch system. The Russians have been having
by danielvf 8y ago
The space shuttle had 135 flights, of which 2 were TPK’s. So a 1 in 68 chance of failure. And that’s on a man-rated launch system. The Russians have been having 1 in 10 to 1 in 20 non-human rated rockets failing. So even compared to our non-Kessler Syndrome world, a 1 in 1000 risk is almost insignificant.
However, what I’m really comparing it to is the popular perception - that Kessler means hundreds of years of humanity trapped on earth - In which case 999 non-issues in 1000 is fantastic.
And that’s with a magical worst case.