https://www.businessinsider.com/how-long-people-wait-to-upgrade-phones-chart-2017-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/how-long-people-wait-to-upgr... The average

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-long-people-wait-to-upgrade-phones-chart-2017-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/how-long-people-wait-to-upgr... The average person has their phone less than 2 years. If we assume a normal distribution and a standard deviation of 11 months then 83% of people will keep it less than 3 years. 5 years would be 3 std deviations. That is a very small number.