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According to Alan Kay's talk less than a quarter of one percent of people are conscientious objectors when push comes to shove. That certainly limits the possib

According to Alan Kay's talk less than a quarter of one percent of people are conscientious objectors when push comes to shove. That certainly limits the possibilities of the future. Despite literacy and history being studied very few dare to be a Daniel.

drawkbox 8y ago
With any production/consumer scenario it is usually 1 to 1000 or more ratio. Content producers and people that interact rather than lurk are a 1 to 1000 or more. This here article probably thousands view it, and only a trickle comment, some participate, others mostly observe. This ratio also shows up in conversions, customer purchases and more. The fact is most of human existence is observing, studying, thinking, following, viewing existing knowledge while very few interact or create new production or are producing at one time on one subject or concentration, though we all are the 1s for something. The key is when you are that 1 to the 1000s or more is to be real, truthful, provide value, wisdom, entertainment and be interesting and that can draw in more 1s to an eventual critical mass and success or world changing paths. The trickle of small change eventually reaches critical mass but growing slowly, in similar conversion rates that start to compound. Humans are a differentiation machine, they follow along the paths of the branches of success or current realities and at a certain point differentiate themselves by forging a new path, others then weigh the pros and cons and sometimes that path becomes a main branch, but new branches take risk, dedication, resources and creativity, as well as convincing others to follow. The bright side way to look at it is, there is always a quarter of one percent of people that are conscientious objectors, speak up, make change, innovate, produce, create or more all the time.
- Hextinium 8y ago
  I find anecdotally that someone usually has something that they are the 1/1000 over. For some people it's comment threads or sharing articles with friends but somewhere they fall into a 1/1000 category where they put their creative effort. Not to say that there is a large amount of people that will read your comment and not respond. The other thing that may be the case is the overview effect which was recently brought up, it may take 40-50 seconds to read a post but if it takes everyone 10 minutes to write a post then even if everyone on HN spend a quarter of their time writing posts you would still get the 1/100 ratio. Just food for the thought.
jweir 8y ago
That stat is bogus. Maybe technically correct based upon the status when you register for selective service, but look at the number of objectors during the Vietnam era: > A total of 170,000 men received C.O. deferments; as many as 300,000 other applicants were denied deferment. Nearly 600,000 illegally evaded the draft; about 200,000 were formally accused of draft offenses. Between 30,000 and 50,000 fled to Canada; another 20,000 fled to other countries or lived underground in America. Source https://www.swarthmore.edu/library/peace/conscientiousobjection/co%20website/pages/HistoryNew.htm https://www.swarthmore.edu/library/peace/conscientiousobject...
- azeirah 8y ago
  Is "conscientious objector" a formally defined status? i.e. "you are a conscientious objector iff you object to being drafted for the US military", or is it a analogous to "this person will publicly speak out and/or rebel against horrors?" Because I had the feeling while watching Alan's talk that he wasn't talking about military drafts -- which is exclusively male anyway and he's talking about people, not men -- but rather, that he was talking about people the more informal second definition Or stated differently; people who remained passive during wars, even if they were actually against the mass murders and large scale horrors. Then again, if it's the second definition, where in the world did he get those statistics from, how would you even reliably determine who has or hasn't publicly stated their position, ... I mean, there's no reliable written historical record of this position, is there?
  - azeirah 8y ago
    Also Jesus Christ I hate writing on my phone, autocorrect manages to put words in places were I never wanted them to appear ;_;
  - jweir 8y ago
    It is formally defined. You can declare your a C.O. when you register for Selective Service. https://www.sss.gov/consobj https://www.sss.gov/consobj
    - 8y ago

drawkbox 8y ago

With any production/consumer scenario it is usually 1 to 1000 or more ratio. Content producers and people that interact rather than lurk are a 1 to 1000 or more. This here article probably thousands view it, and only a trickle comment, some participate, others mostly observe. This ratio also shows up in conversions, customer purchases and more. The fact is most of human existence is observing, studying, thinking, following, viewing existing knowledge while very few interact or create new production or are producing at one time on one subject or concentration, though we all are the 1s for something. The key is when you are that 1 to the 1000s or more is to be real, truthful, provide value, wisdom, entertainment and be interesting and that can draw in more 1s to an eventual critical mass and success or world changing paths. The trickle of small change eventually reaches critical mass but growing slowly, in similar conversion rates that start to compound. Humans are a differentiation machine, they follow along the paths of the branches of success or current realities and at a certain point differentiate themselves by forging a new path, others then weigh the pros and cons and sometimes that path becomes a main branch, but new branches take risk, dedication, resources and creativity, as well as convincing others to follow. The bright side way to look at it is, there is always a quarter of one percent of people that are conscientious objectors, speak up, make change, innovate, produce, create or more all the time.

Hextinium 8y ago
I find anecdotally that someone usually has something that they are the 1/1000 over. For some people it's comment threads or sharing articles with friends but somewhere they fall into a 1/1000 category where they put their creative effort. Not to say that there is a large amount of people that will read your comment and not respond. The other thing that may be the case is the overview effect which was recently brought up, it may take 40-50 seconds to read a post but if it takes everyone 10 minutes to write a post then even if everyone on HN spend a quarter of their time writing posts you would still get the 1/100 ratio. Just food for the thought.

jweir 8y ago

That stat is bogus. Maybe technically correct based upon the status when you register for selective service, but look at the number of objectors during the Vietnam era: > A total of 170,000 men received C.O. deferments; as many as 300,000 other applicants were denied deferment. Nearly 600,000 illegally evaded the draft; about 200,000 were formally accused of draft offenses. Between 30,000 and 50,000 fled to Canada; another 20,000 fled to other countries or lived underground in America. Source https://www.swarthmore.edu/library/peace/conscientiousobjection/co%20website/pages/HistoryNew.htm https://www.swarthmore.edu/library/peace/conscientiousobject...

azeirah 8y ago
Is "conscientious objector" a formally defined status? i.e. "you are a conscientious objector iff you object to being drafted for the US military", or is it a analogous to "this person will publicly speak out and/or rebel against horrors?" Because I had the feeling while watching Alan's talk that he wasn't talking about military drafts -- which is exclusively male anyway and he's talking about people, not men -- but rather, that he was talking about people the more informal second definition Or stated differently; people who remained passive during wars, even if they were actually against the mass murders and large scale horrors. Then again, if it's the second definition, where in the world did he get those statistics from, how would you even reliably determine who has or hasn't publicly stated their position, ... I mean, there's no reliable written historical record of this position, is there?
- azeirah 8y ago
  Also Jesus Christ I hate writing on my phone, autocorrect manages to put words in places were I never wanted them to appear ;_;
- jweir 8y ago
  It is formally defined. You can declare your a C.O. when you register for Selective Service. https://www.sss.gov/consobj https://www.sss.gov/consobj
  - 8y ago