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There are a lot of "has not been done before" going on right now in the satellite industry. Musk is the only one getting press, though. And keep in mind that th

There are a lot of "has not been done before" going on right now in the satellite industry. Musk is the only one getting press, though. And keep in mind that the cpe cost hasn't been justified anywhere I've seen. Phased array is still far from $700, so it's not clear how they plan to recoup that.

walrus01 8y ago
Yes I am also highly skeptical of what the CPE cost will be. Starlink has been over hyped in the non-satellite-industry technology press as if it will be a panacea for residential, rural internet access and for small business. But I'm thinking the rooftop terminal cost might be more like $3000-5000 of hardware, not totally outside the realm of possibility to recoup the cost for on 36 month contracts, but not something that's going to allow for $90/month residential broadband. More like a small-medium business product. Or $250-300/month. If they can't do it economically and with enough gain, SNR and low noise factor using phased array (questionable), the rooftop CPE is going to have to look like an identical pair of motorized, two axis tracking 50cm compact cassegrain dishes, each with its own BUC+SSPA and Rx RF chain. Basically miniaturized o3b. Again not cheap.
- nickik 8y ago
  > $3000-5000 of hardware How do you get to that? The will mass produce these themselves seems highly unlikely that they would be so expensive.
  - walrus01 8y ago
    I'm basing it on my knowledge of all comparable two way satellite antennas, Rx/tx rf chains and modems. But there really is nothing comparable. The cost may end up being opaque and hidden to the end user wrapped up in 24, 36, 60 month service contracts. Sort of like how you can get a $950 phone for "$0" with contract. Current phased array two way satellite stuff that is small, and intended for geostationary purposes, is manufactured in such small quantities that it is hard to compare.
  - shaklee3 8y ago
    If it is cost-effective for SpaceX with 0 customers so far, do you think DirecTV, dish, etc, with millions of subscribers for more than a decade wouldn't do it? I would be good money they've spent their fair share of r&d on this, and the good ol ~70cm parabolic dish wins out. And they don't even have to solve the problem of the satellites moving.
    - walrus01 8y ago
      DirecTV and others' Rx only geostationary market is 50x larger than small two way vsat, because most of the USA doesn't need vsat service. They're all based on standard cheap geostationary rx only tech. A DirecTV dish and feed + lnb are super simple and cheap to manufacture.

walrus01 8y ago

Yes I am also highly skeptical of what the CPE cost will be. Starlink has been over hyped in the non-satellite-industry technology press as if it will be a panacea for residential, rural internet access and for small business. But I'm thinking the rooftop terminal cost might be more like $3000-5000 of hardware, not totally outside the realm of possibility to recoup the cost for on 36 month contracts, but not something that's going to allow for $90/month residential broadband. More like a small-medium business product. Or $250-300/month. If they can't do it economically and with enough gain, SNR and low noise factor using phased array (questionable), the rooftop CPE is going to have to look like an identical pair of motorized, two axis tracking 50cm compact cassegrain dishes, each with its own BUC+SSPA and Rx RF chain. Basically miniaturized o3b. Again not cheap.

nickik 8y ago
> $3000-5000 of hardware How do you get to that? The will mass produce these themselves seems highly unlikely that they would be so expensive.
- walrus01 8y ago
  I'm basing it on my knowledge of all comparable two way satellite antennas, Rx/tx rf chains and modems. But there really is nothing comparable. The cost may end up being opaque and hidden to the end user wrapped up in 24, 36, 60 month service contracts. Sort of like how you can get a $950 phone for "$0" with contract. Current phased array two way satellite stuff that is small, and intended for geostationary purposes, is manufactured in such small quantities that it is hard to compare.
- shaklee3 8y ago
  If it is cost-effective for SpaceX with 0 customers so far, do you think DirecTV, dish, etc, with millions of subscribers for more than a decade wouldn't do it? I would be good money they've spent their fair share of r&d on this, and the good ol ~70cm parabolic dish wins out. And they don't even have to solve the problem of the satellites moving.
  - walrus01 8y ago
    DirecTV and others' Rx only geostationary market is 50x larger than small two way vsat, because most of the USA doesn't need vsat service. They're all based on standard cheap geostationary rx only tech. A DirecTV dish and feed + lnb are super simple and cheap to manufacture.