8 ms·

I doubt he goes to the US. I feel Russia will offer asylum.

by panda427 8y ago

13415 8y ago
And how would he get from the Ecuadorian embassy in London to Russia?
- IBM 8y ago
  Apparently Russia was planning to help Assange escape [1]. Maybe they should try sticking him in a big diplomatic bag. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/21/julian-assange-russia-ecuador-embassy-london-secret-escape-plan https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/21/julian-assange...
- prolikewh0a 8y ago
  Probably in a body bag at that point. There's no way the ruling class lets Assange even step a foot out of the embassy without immediately taking him into custody.
  - smhost 8y ago
    a mass protest could cause enough distraction, but that would take a lot of organizing, and we all know how good the left is at organizing.
    - dang 8y ago
      Please keep unsubstantive comments and political flamebait off HN.
    - mohammedbin 8y ago
      Dang this is for you since I can't reply directly. There is substance to what they said- mass protest can create distraction. And saying that left is good at organizing is no kind of flamebait. Can you clarify what you're talking about?
      - dang 8y ago
        Taking right-vs.-left potshots in a throwaway remark is just way too low quality to meet the bar here. The GP comment "probably in a body bag" was almost as bad. We're trying for more thoughtful comments here.
        mohammedbin 8y ago
        Wait what was the potshot here? Was it the tone? "We all know"? Maybe but only very little. If you're going to get this triggered over smallest things than why not ban political topics altogether?
        prolikewh0a 8y ago
        >The GP comment "probably in a body bag" was almost as bad. We're trying for more thoughtful comments here. It's just the truth. A lot of people/governments/entities want him dead. It wasn't meant to incite any kind of violence, just pointing out that he's a major target.
- the_watcher 8y ago
  I'm not 100% sure on how diplomatic immunity works here, but couldn't Russia send a diplomat in an official vehicle to the Ecuadorian embassy to pick Assange up? I think official vehicles get the same diplomatic protections of an embassy, so as long as he enters and exits the car inside embassy walls, he should be ok, right? Or does diplomatic immunity end entirely at the embassy walls?
  - donohoe 8y ago
    Nope. They couldn't.
    - cheeze 8y ago
      Care to elaborate here?
  - bcOpus 8y ago
    The Russian diplomat would have immunity, the car is not a magic “immunity” force bubble for the occupants. Unless they grind him up and stick his remains in a diplomatic pouch, he’s gettable outside of an embassy. Diplomatic immunity doesn’t mean the police can’t pull you over and search you, it just means the diplomats in question can’t face criminal penalties as a result of what’s found.
    - erichurkman 8y ago
      Is there a limitation to what counts as a "diplomatic pouch"? According to the Wikipedia article, even shipping containers have been used before [0]. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diplomatic_bag#Noteworthy_shipments https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diplomatic_bag#Noteworthy_ship...
    - rsync 8y ago
      "... the car is not a magic “immunity” force bubble ..." No, but a diplomatic packet is. Just saying.
      - deleted 8y ago
- Rotdhizon 8y ago
  Doesn't the US have people waiting outside the embassy 24/7 to snatch him if he ever tries to leave? Could have sworn I read that once.
  - mexicanandre 8y ago
    Was just recently in London and walked past! I didn't see anyone just parked there, but im sure they were being more covert.
  - greglindahl 8y ago
    The UK used to have a 24x7 watch, but they got bored and left.
- dragonwriter 8y ago
  “Oops, he slipped through our fingers and got away to Russia” is arguably one of the better possible outcomes for the present US Administration if Ecuador boots him, at least if that happens before Mueller closes up shop.
  - notahacker 8y ago
    It's not a good outcome for a UK government that has to justify letting him slip through their fingers having previously spent an absolute fortune on policing.
    - dragonwriter 8y ago
      The UK government seems to have recognized he sunk cost fallacy as a fallacy when they stopped the 24×7 “grab Assange if he leaves” watch. Presuming Ecuador doesn't telegraph the timing of the ejection, I don't think there's a whole lot to justify that the UK government hasn't already clearly accepted the risk of needing to justify.
- iguy 8y ago
  > And how would he get from the Ecuadorian embassy in London to Russia? Easy! They fly 15 specialists over on a day-trip, equipped with some good music and a bone saw, and every part of him will be in Moscow the same evening.
ttul 8y ago
Perhaps he will shack up with Snowden and they can both live it large in a government apartment while having their movements tracked until they don't serve the needs of Putin's establishment. At which time they will be traded to the Americans for some behind-the-scenes consideration.
Analemma_ 8y ago
They definitely will not. Assagne is an important lesson for anyone considering becoming a voluntary pawn of statecraft operations: the CIA coined the term “terminate with extreme prejudice“ for a reason. These agencies are not known for their loyalty to assets. Once the mission (Trump’s election, in this case) has been completed, you are a liability to be disposed of. Assagne let this go to his head and apparently thought he was an invaluable partner, rather than a loose end.

I doubt he goes to the US. I feel Russia will offer asylum.

13415 8y ago

And how would he get from the Ecuadorian embassy in London to Russia?

IBM 8y ago
Apparently Russia was planning to help Assange escape [1]. Maybe they should try sticking him in a big diplomatic bag. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/21/julian-assange-russia-ecuador-embassy-london-secret-escape-plan https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/21/julian-assange...
prolikewh0a 8y ago
Probably in a body bag at that point. There's no way the ruling class lets Assange even step a foot out of the embassy without immediately taking him into custody.
- smhost 8y ago
  a mass protest could cause enough distraction, but that would take a lot of organizing, and we all know how good the left is at organizing.
  - dang 8y ago
    Please keep unsubstantive comments and political flamebait off HN.
  - mohammedbin 8y ago
    Dang this is for you since I can't reply directly. There is substance to what they said- mass protest can create distraction. And saying that left is good at organizing is no kind of flamebait. Can you clarify what you're talking about?
    - dang 8y ago
      Taking right-vs.-left potshots in a throwaway remark is just way too low quality to meet the bar here. The GP comment "probably in a body bag" was almost as bad. We're trying for more thoughtful comments here.
      - mohammedbin 8y ago
        Wait what was the potshot here? Was it the tone? "We all know"? Maybe but only very little. If you're going to get this triggered over smallest things than why not ban political topics altogether?
      - prolikewh0a 8y ago
        >The GP comment "probably in a body bag" was almost as bad. We're trying for more thoughtful comments here. It's just the truth. A lot of people/governments/entities want him dead. It wasn't meant to incite any kind of violence, just pointing out that he's a major target.
the_watcher 8y ago
I'm not 100% sure on how diplomatic immunity works here, but couldn't Russia send a diplomat in an official vehicle to the Ecuadorian embassy to pick Assange up? I think official vehicles get the same diplomatic protections of an embassy, so as long as he enters and exits the car inside embassy walls, he should be ok, right? Or does diplomatic immunity end entirely at the embassy walls?
- donohoe 8y ago
  Nope. They couldn't.
  - cheeze 8y ago
    Care to elaborate here?
- bcOpus 8y ago
  The Russian diplomat would have immunity, the car is not a magic “immunity” force bubble for the occupants. Unless they grind him up and stick his remains in a diplomatic pouch, he’s gettable outside of an embassy. Diplomatic immunity doesn’t mean the police can’t pull you over and search you, it just means the diplomats in question can’t face criminal penalties as a result of what’s found.
  - erichurkman 8y ago
    Is there a limitation to what counts as a "diplomatic pouch"? According to the Wikipedia article, even shipping containers have been used before [0]. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diplomatic_bag#Noteworthy_shipments https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diplomatic_bag#Noteworthy_ship...
  - rsync 8y ago
    "... the car is not a magic “immunity” force bubble ..." No, but a diplomatic packet is. Just saying.
    - deleted 8y ago
Rotdhizon 8y ago
Doesn't the US have people waiting outside the embassy 24/7 to snatch him if he ever tries to leave? Could have sworn I read that once.
- mexicanandre 8y ago
  Was just recently in London and walked past! I didn't see anyone just parked there, but im sure they were being more covert.
- greglindahl 8y ago
  The UK used to have a 24x7 watch, but they got bored and left.
dragonwriter 8y ago
“Oops, he slipped through our fingers and got away to Russia” is arguably one of the better possible outcomes for the present US Administration if Ecuador boots him, at least if that happens before Mueller closes up shop.
- notahacker 8y ago
  It's not a good outcome for a UK government that has to justify letting him slip through their fingers having previously spent an absolute fortune on policing.
  - dragonwriter 8y ago
    The UK government seems to have recognized he sunk cost fallacy as a fallacy when they stopped the 24×7 “grab Assange if he leaves” watch. Presuming Ecuador doesn't telegraph the timing of the ejection, I don't think there's a whole lot to justify that the UK government hasn't already clearly accepted the risk of needing to justify.
iguy 8y ago
> And how would he get from the Ecuadorian embassy in London to Russia? Easy! They fly 15 specialists over on a day-trip, equipped with some good music and a bone saw, and every part of him will be in Moscow the same evening.

ttul 8y ago

Perhaps he will shack up with Snowden and they can both live it large in a government apartment while having their movements tracked until they don't serve the needs of Putin's establishment. At which time they will be traded to the Americans for some behind-the-scenes consideration.

Analemma_ 8y ago

They definitely will not. Assagne is an important lesson for anyone considering becoming a voluntary pawn of statecraft operations: the CIA coined the term “terminate with extreme prejudice“ for a reason. These agencies are not known for their loyalty to assets. Once the mission (Trump’s election, in this case) has been completed, you are a liability to be disposed of. Assagne let this go to his head and apparently thought he was an invaluable partner, rather than a loose end.