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1) Yep, and anyone who has worked in a startup knows that these are "bet the company" moments. They had to ramp to model 3, they thought they gave themselves en

1) Yep, and anyone who has worked in a startup knows that these are "bet the company" moments. They had to ramp to model 3, they thought they gave themselves enough room. Turns out the engineering on factories were wrong - in particular Panasonic fscked up the battery assembly system and Tesla screwed up by over automating. That made it closer then they should have. 2) I've never thought that anything the street did around Tesla was rational. I just watched Mark Speigal still hold on to his position that Tesla is doomed. 3) I agree it was irresponsible - but I also disagree with your thesis that it was manipulation. Elon had access to the sales number, and the ramp. He didn't need tweet to inflate the stock - that would have happened (with a much larger market cap then today) at the end of the quarter. That just puts it back to twitter induced stupidity. Thanks for the well-reasoned response here. I think we are agreed on Tesla governance going forward. I am really praying that the Mullally runner is correct. That would make me a very happy camper.

calabin 8y ago
1) I agree that there are certain instances, especially in startup-land, where we have to bet the company. Lord knows I've had to do it with the company I'm a part of. That said, I don't think that this was one of those moments. 2) I've worked intimately with both buy and sell side clients, so I have pretty good first-hand knowledge of analysts on "the street". I can confirm to you that they are as irrational and misinformed as much of the general public. Bringing attention to themselves and their firms plays a big role in what they say/do. I agree that there has been a ton of irrational work done on Tesla, but I think that a reduction in target prices to reflect the company's financial state was reasonable. 3) I think we both just see this very differently. I agree on Mulally, that would be great. Thanks for the detailed responses and thoughtful back-and-forth.

calabin 8y ago

1) I agree that there are certain instances, especially in startup-land, where we have to bet the company. Lord knows I've had to do it with the company I'm a part of. That said, I don't think that this was one of those moments. 2) I've worked intimately with both buy and sell side clients, so I have pretty good first-hand knowledge of analysts on "the street". I can confirm to you that they are as irrational and misinformed as much of the general public. Bringing attention to themselves and their firms plays a big role in what they say/do. I agree that there has been a ton of irrational work done on Tesla, but I think that a reduction in target prices to reflect the company's financial state was reasonable. 3) I think we both just see this very differently. I agree on Mulally, that would be great. Thanks for the detailed responses and thoughtful back-and-forth.