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I don't think I had an opinion beforehand or anything. I mean I was always down with the idea. But I think the problem is that it's such a long process to get f

I don't think I had an opinion beforehand or anything. I mean I was always down with the idea. But I think the problem is that it's such a long process to get from point A to B, and then the market for putting things into orbit is pretty niche that most people just can't see the potential. And lot of people are living from paycheck to paycheck aren't really planning years down the road. It's completely out of their realm of experience or expertise in every possible way. And they would never attempt it so that's get projected onto the world as, "Anyone who attempts this is foolish." Hindsight is 20/20 after all. And vision is only lauded in hindsight. Because a vision that ends in failure gets a big "I told you so." from people who usually have none.

darawk 8y ago
Except that this isn't hindsight being 20/20...this is foresight.
ambicapter 8y ago
> And lot of people are living from paycheck to paycheck aren't really planning years down the road. The average joe had and could have had nothing to do with SpaceX's success. I think OP is referring more to people who could have had an impact, like government entities or aerospace company CEOs.
WalterBright 8y ago
> the market for putting things into orbit is pretty niche It's only niche until the price comes down, like for computers, cars, air travel, aluminum, coffee, etc.
- tialaramex 8y ago
  Two things: 1. Things can be niche because there just aren't that many people who want them, rather than because you couldn't make them cheaply if there was demand. A good quality Videodisc player for example costs far more now than it did at the height of the format, because only weird retro collectors want one so there's no reason to mass produce them. Videodisc players are niche. 2. We're talking about literal space, it can actually fill up. Some orbits are either so low that everything de-orbits soon enough anyway and needs replacing, or so high that we'd never conceivably fill them, but in between are plenty of useful orbits that are finite, so filling them up with more crap doesn't make any sense even if you could do it for free.
  - zaroth 8y ago
    It’s not so much that there’s not enough room up there, but rather if any odd piece of shit decides to disintegrate the debris field will make a large swath of orbit uninhabitable until the debris falls back to Earth. So even if getting up there gets cheap the things we put up there will still need to be expensive.
- PopeDotNinja 8y ago
  Fun fact: aluminum used to be more valuable than gold. From here... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium "As Wöhler's method could not yield great quantities of aluminium, the metal remained rare; its cost exceeded that of gold. [57] ... [57] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium#cite_note-Venetski-61" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium#cite_note-Venetski-6...

darawk 8y ago

Except that this isn't hindsight being 20/20...this is foresight.

ambicapter 8y ago

> And lot of people are living from paycheck to paycheck aren't really planning years down the road. The average joe had and could have had nothing to do with SpaceX's success. I think OP is referring more to people who could have had an impact, like government entities or aerospace company CEOs.

WalterBright 8y ago

> the market for putting things into orbit is pretty niche It's only niche until the price comes down, like for computers, cars, air travel, aluminum, coffee, etc.

tialaramex 8y ago
Two things: 1. Things can be niche because there just aren't that many people who want them, rather than because you couldn't make them cheaply if there was demand. A good quality Videodisc player for example costs far more now than it did at the height of the format, because only weird retro collectors want one so there's no reason to mass produce them. Videodisc players are niche. 2. We're talking about literal space, it can actually fill up. Some orbits are either so low that everything de-orbits soon enough anyway and needs replacing, or so high that we'd never conceivably fill them, but in between are plenty of useful orbits that are finite, so filling them up with more crap doesn't make any sense even if you could do it for free.
- zaroth 8y ago
  It’s not so much that there’s not enough room up there, but rather if any odd piece of shit decides to disintegrate the debris field will make a large swath of orbit uninhabitable until the debris falls back to Earth. So even if getting up there gets cheap the things we put up there will still need to be expensive.
PopeDotNinja 8y ago
Fun fact: aluminum used to be more valuable than gold. From here... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium "As Wöhler's method could not yield great quantities of aluminium, the metal remained rare; its cost exceeded that of gold. [57] ... [57] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium#cite_note-Venetski-61" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium#cite_note-Venetski-6...