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False! Robots are expensive for three reasons 1. Small scale 2. High precision and 3. Patents. By far the largest one of those is scale. If you can build a car

False! Robots are expensive for three reasons 1. Small scale 2. High precision and 3. Patents. By far the largest one of those is scale. If you can build a car for 15k you can build a humanoid robot for 15k. I'm happy to take a long bet on this.

GlenTheMachine 8y ago
Existing industrial robot arms are already built at some scale, and they go fo $50,000 and up. And that's just an arm. No tooling, no sensors. This may be that the economies of scale aren't big enough, but we're already talking about hundreds of thousands of units per year in the industry. The car industry builds 75 million or so units per year. They get away with it because of turnover. Fleet owners don't keep cars past 20,000 or 30,000 miles. High end car owners replace their cars every couple of years. They pay $30,000 to $70,000 every five years. Because cars are more than transportation, they're a lifestyle choice and in many cases a sign of conspicuous consumption. I have a hard time thinking of any other consumer item that is both owned by the vast majority of people and is also a sign of wealth, that is purchased in the high tens of millions every year and for which people happily pay more than $20,000. Cars aren't a good proxy for household robots here, I think.
- perl4ever 8y ago
  "Fleet owners don't keep cars past 20,000 or 30,000 miles. High end car owners replace their cars every couple of years. They pay $30,000 to $70,000 every five years." Cars aren't scrapped after five years. The average car on the road is over 10 years old, and they're not normally scrapped before about 15 years old.
  - GlenTheMachine 8y ago
    >Cars aren't scrapped after five years. No, of course not. But fleet owners buy new ones every five years or less. Typically the old cars are sold on the used market. Which means there is always a market for new cars, and a steady availability of used ones. But the point is: fleet owners turn their inventory over much faster than the cars wear out.

GlenTheMachine 8y ago

Existing industrial robot arms are already built at some scale, and they go fo $50,000 and up. And that's just an arm. No tooling, no sensors. This may be that the economies of scale aren't big enough, but we're already talking about hundreds of thousands of units per year in the industry. The car industry builds 75 million or so units per year. They get away with it because of turnover. Fleet owners don't keep cars past 20,000 or 30,000 miles. High end car owners replace their cars every couple of years. They pay $30,000 to $70,000 every five years. Because cars are more than transportation, they're a lifestyle choice and in many cases a sign of conspicuous consumption. I have a hard time thinking of any other consumer item that is both owned by the vast majority of people and is also a sign of wealth, that is purchased in the high tens of millions every year and for which people happily pay more than $20,000. Cars aren't a good proxy for household robots here, I think.

perl4ever 8y ago
"Fleet owners don't keep cars past 20,000 or 30,000 miles. High end car owners replace their cars every couple of years. They pay $30,000 to $70,000 every five years." Cars aren't scrapped after five years. The average car on the road is over 10 years old, and they're not normally scrapped before about 15 years old.
- GlenTheMachine 8y ago
  >Cars aren't scrapped after five years. No, of course not. But fleet owners buy new ones every five years or less. Typically the old cars are sold on the used market. Which means there is always a market for new cars, and a steady availability of used ones. But the point is: fleet owners turn their inventory over much faster than the cars wear out.