11 ms·

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having broken charging stations. There's 4 ChargePoint stations in a garage near me that have been broken and unmaintained for years, and they're out of warranty and the mall doesn't have a financial incentive to fix them. And then there's the DC fast chargers. I'm not aware of a single BEV (Volts or other PHEVs are excluded here) that can travel across the US with a reasonable route without worrying about finding chargers along the way. In fact, last time I looked, there was no physical way I could do a road trip I've been meaning to do through the western US in my i3 (my car, of course, has half the battery range of a Bolt) because of a lack of chargers. Tesla's Supercharger build out is extremely important to their future. Until other companies step up and install DCFC stations everywhere (and figure out the CCS vs CHAdeMO format war), Tesla is going to have a massive advantage. Sure, not everyone is going to want to do a multi-thousand mile road trip, but driving one of Tesla's cars might make them.

crwalker 8y ago
How long do you think the current Supercharger network will be a large competitive advantage? I agree with Benedict Evan's point that electric charging will become a commodity: https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2018/8/29/tesla-software-and-disruption https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2018/8/29/tesla-soft...
- olivermarks 8y ago
  Wouldn't it be awful if you could only buy Ford gasoline from Ford gas stations? The lock in model is attractive until you think about broader implication, I agree with Evans too that it will be a commodity race to the bottom for recharging, with cost introduced for the power
  - stephengillie 8y ago
    General Motors owns a patent on leaded gasoline. https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/gm-engineers-discover-that-leaded-gas-reduces-knock-in-auto-engines https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/gm-engineers-dis...
    - frostburg 8y ago
      Invented by the same person that invented Freon, too. Talented chemical engineer but possibly the most harmful human to have ever lived by some metrics.
      - JetSpiegel 8y ago
        The same guy who was killed by his own apparatus to get him out of bed after he caught polio. [1] 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Midgley_Jr.#Later_life_and_death https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Midgley_Jr.#Later_life_...
        burger_moon 8y ago
        His whole wiki reads like a horror story. So many people died of lead poisoning at DuPont where they were developing it. > Midgley participated in a press conference to demonstrate the apparent safety of TEL, in which he poured TEL over his hands, placed a bottle of the chemical under his nose, and inhaled its vapor for 60 seconds, declaring that he could do this every day without succumbing to any problems.
  - Mongus 8y ago
    Tesla's aren't locked into using Tesla chargers. They do have a proprietary connector on the vehicles but they come with several adapters including J1772. Superchargers are a phenomenal perk, not a lock in.
    - saagarjha 8y ago
      Are Superchargers free to use by people who have not bought Teslas?
- andrewmunsell 8y ago
  Eventually, yes, it will become a commodity. But the issue is, someone has to spend a lot of money to build out these chargers. Tesla has a big incentive to do it-- their very survival depended on early adopters willing to buy their car, which also means they need a place to charge it. Being able to go 100 miles from your house before you have to turn around was never going to work for car owners, hence Tesla's initial Supercharger build out. But other car manufacturers, for whatever reason, don't get this. They build their compliance cars with a modest investment in EVs, but honestly, they aren't very good. The Leaf has its niche-- it's a good city car with low range and low cost. The Bolt really is one of the first non-Tesla players with a decent range, yet you can't drive it from Seattle to Yosemite because the lack of chargers and GM isn't investing anything in them. The same goes for BMW. Volkswagen is forced to build chargers due to the diesel settlement, but ironically without their cheating and forced investment in EV, there would be fewer chargers out there than there are today (or in the near future). Maybe I'm wrong and hydrogen or some other form of fuel will win, but if EVs do, car manufacturers will be scrambling to catch up and invest in chargers. I don't think this will happen soon, but maybe in 5 years they'll start thinking about it. Really, if they wait until the Model Y in 2020 and Tesla starts eating their lunch in the biggest segment in the US (CUVs), it might wake them up sooner.
  - crwalker 8y ago
    Agree - Tesla had an existential incentive to build chargers, but other car makers would prefer to wait and see (and let someone else build out the commodity chargers).
  - gamblor956 8y ago
    Other carmakers don't need to build their own charging network. It's already being handled for them by thousands of businesses installing standards-compatible chargers. There are 3 new chargers on my block that were installed within the last month. Another 6 scheduled to be installed in my building's garage in the next month. That's in addition to the dozens that are already located in my part of LA. In Santa Monica, the city installed several dozen chargers in their city parking structures and lots. The Inglewood Stadium and the Dodgers are installing chargers in the off-season. Most malls have dedicated spots for charging EVs. Nearly every parking structure in Century City has EV chargers.... Meanwhile, the closest Tesla superchargers are nearly double-digit miles away, far from the freeways, so at best 30 minutes away without traffic and up to 3 hours away with traffic. And since there are so few of them, you basically cross your fingers and hope that one of them is free when you get there.
- rconti 8y ago
  I sure hope it does become a commodity! However, Tesla's network is not a disadvantage here; they can charge (just not FAST charge) from other chargers, and the fast charging can be 'bolted on' later, I'm sure, via an adapter and software update.
  - greglindahl 8y ago
    The example from the past is that Tesla eventually came out with a Chaedemo adapter that worked with all existing S/X cars: https://shop.tesla.com/ca/en/product/vehicle-accessories/model-s_x-chademo-adapter.html https://shop.tesla.com/ca/en/product/vehicle-accessories/mod...
- schiffern 8y ago
  >electric charging will become a commodity Alas, I would have thought the same for ISPs. Any reason why EV charging won't naturally evolve into a similar overpriced, regulator capturing, locale-by-locale monopoly? I'm talking about the subset of the EV owners without home charging. Currently this number is small, but as battery prices drop and EVs become the de-facto 'regular car,' there's ~60% of the population who have no "at-cost" home charging (being locked-in to whatever exclusive vendor their apartment complex chooses). In this respect EVs are very different from gasoline vehicles, and I say this as a big supporter of EVs. I can drive across town to buy gas, but I can't park my car across town overnight. The problem with competing firms is that eventually someone wins.
  - yurishimo 8y ago
    The thing is ISPs almost became a commodity until we figured out we could get higher speeds with cable infrastructure. We all remember the local phone company offering dial-up back in the 90s. In many European countries, ISPs are a commodity since the owners of the cable have to provide access to anyone at reasonable market rates. That's why the fight for net neutrality is so important.
  - Obi_Juan_Kenobi 8y ago
    The comparison to your apartment example would be pay-laundry, not ISPs. ISPs gain monopolies because of the last-mile infrastructure. Charging services are quite interchangeable as electric service is already running to buildings.
    - schiffern 8y ago
      >Charging services are quite interchangeable Not for the tenants themselves. Tenants need permission from the owner to install charging infrastructure, and the owner has little incentive to allow competition because the vendor gives them a cut of the [overpriced] charging fee. Even California's progressive tenant EV charger law[1] doesn't apply if 10% (!) of parking spots already have chargers. Your example of pay laundry is instructive. In theory laundry service remains interchangeable (after all, "water/electric service is already running to the buildings"), but in practice the owner simply forbids tenants from installing their own laundry machines (typically citing flood risk). [1] https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201320140AB2565 https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml...
- jread 8y ago
  I disagree - I've been driving EVs exclusively (Ford Focus Electric followed by Tesla MS) since 2013 in So Cal and can attest to how poor user experience is with 3rd party charge networks. First of all, there are 4+ distinct networks each requiring separate account/payment setup and RFIDs. They are often broken, fully used, overpriced or cumbersome to start. Most are L2 with 20-30A - charging at <20 MPH. Fast chargers are sparse - and this is in California where the most EVs are sold in the US. When I leave the state, charge networks become almost nonexistent in many areas. To the contrary, user experience at Tesla superchargers is great. There are enough of them, evenly distributed, that I never have range anxiety, they work, they are usually not over crowded (although getting busier), they are free or at cost, they are high powered, usually located near nice amenities, and they are simple - pull in, plug in and wait 15-45 minutes. I don't see anything on the horizon from other manufacturers that will even remotely approximate what Tesla offers today with supercharging. Partnership/expansion of for-profit networks will never get there.
  - user9995 8y ago
    >Partnership/expansion of for-profit networks will never get there. So people believe that Tesla is going to upend the entire auto industry, but can't believe that some company will figure out how to build nice charging stations? So many contradictions in the arguments here. Yes, the Supercharger network was, basically, necessary for Tesla to reach a critical acceptance level. But operating and maintaining those stations is not free. The idea that the major fuelling stations won't start adding fast chargers is incredibly naive. They already have the infrastructure and real estate. It's a no-brainer. If/when EV demand reaches those levels, it will happen.
    - ethbro 8y ago
      > The idea that the major fuelling stations won't start adding fast chargers is incredibly naive. They already have the infrastructure and real estate. Do they? I was under the impression most fueling stations had standard single-phase 200A hookups to the grid. So, at minimum, that would mean an electrical upgrade, no?
    - Robotbeat 8y ago
- maxxxxx 8y ago
  I winder if the Spuerchargers will at some point become an outdated liability once (if) other manufacturers decide on a standard. Being a first mover often can become a problem.
  - Robotbeat 8y ago
    They’ve already decided on CHAdeMO and CCS, both of which are usually much slower and have a huge, unwieldy, and expensive plug. It’s not that hard for Tesla to adapt to a new standard, too. The power electronics are the same, just a different plug and protocol. Tesla’s can connect to a CHAdeMO charger with a relatively cheap adapter.
- erikb 8y ago
  Space stations will become a commodity as well. What I mean to say is, every product that is used by almost everybody will become a commodity at some point. That is not the question. The question is a) How long can you keep it from not becoming a commodity? b) How can you build your business model as market leader around it being a commodity? E.g. gas stops can be considered a commodity at this point, but the powerhouse oil companies still own the whole thing and make hundreds of billions out of gas sales. If Tesla can use their leverage and tech-know-how to get into that position for electrical gas stations they might be in a good position to take that leadership position for a generation or two in providing electricity for the cars, making more money than with actual car sales. So for Tesla, as much as for the not-yet-existing space station business, the fact that they will become commodities at some point is more of a strategic detail than a kill factor.
deepGem 8y ago
Until other companies step up and install DCFC stations everywhere Disclaimer: I am long TSLA I hightly doubt other car companies are gonna do this in a reaonable time frame (3-4 years). They will rely on the dealer network to build out the chargers and suck up the setup cost. Now dealers can potentially finance this with debt and get this done, but I doubt GM or any car company will be able to get consensus from the dealers and roll this ouut fast.
- mediaman 8y ago
  Agreed, and locating them at dealers is often an impractical choice for drivers: they are not consistently located strategically next to highways, sometimes they put them in an area that is not physically accessible outside of business hours (e.g., fenced yard), and the incentive to maintain them is less.
- fossuser 8y ago
  The current situation with dealers sucks for non-tesla EVs, they're often inside and not accessible. They have other cars parked in the way, the people at the dealer don't care, there aren't enough chargers etc.
  - Robotbeat 8y ago
    Yeah, dealers regularly park cars in EV charging spots.
- compcoffee 8y ago
  VW is building out chargers as part of the diesel scandal settlement. https://www.electrifyamerica.com/our-plan https://www.electrifyamerica.com/our-plan
  - andrewmunsell 8y ago
    Funny enough, that's the one current huge investment outside of Tesla in charging infrastructure. If it takes a car company cheating on emissions and being forced to invest in electric, then all of them are going to be doomed to playing catch up.
romwell 8y ago
Indeed. For all the talk about "range anxiety", it is a real concern that only Tesla seems to be actively working towards eliminating. I've needed to drive across the country every year for the past 4 years, and allocating extra days to stop and charge was never an option. That's one aspect where my cheap Honda beats most electric vehicles. For EV to go truly mainstream, that should not be the case.
- taneq 8y ago
  Best is the enemy of good, and perfect is the mortal enemy of best. Just because a vehicle isn't 100% perfect for 100% of people doesn't mean it isn't the best vehicle for most people.
  - romwell 8y ago
    True, true. But in the end, a car is a car is a car. It gets me places. I'd say the ability to get to places is pretty critical for a car. It's what distinguishes it from something that's not a car, for example, a boat anchor. A long road-trip is not an edge case. It's the most affordable - and one of the most popular - ways to have a vacation[1]. National parks alone get over 300 million visits, but they're by far not the only destination. Overall, road trips account for an astonishing 39 percent of vacations[2]. As both articles note, the reasons to choose a road trip over flying include economical considerations; most people travel in their own cars. Does it mean that EV aren't good? No. But to prevail, EV need to be better than ICE cars at the same price point. And as of today, they are really not the best vehicle for most people, by far. Without the supercharger network, EV are not practical for most. See this thread[3] for examples of when Tesla owners use ICE cars. All that is to say that how good an EV is for most people is determined a lot by the available infrastructure. So good on Tesla for being way ahead of the competition here. [1]https://skift.com/2018/05/22/how-driving-defines-us-the-future-of-american-road-trips/ https://skift.com/2018/05/22/how-driving-defines-us-the-futu... [2]https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/16/travel/road-trips-in-the-united-states.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/16/travel/road-trips-in-the-... [3]https://www.quora.com/Do-Tesla-Model-S-owners-and-primary-drivers-keep-also-owning-and-driving-other-ICE-cars-day-to-day-and-trips https://www.quora.com/Do-Tesla-Model-S-owners-and-primary-dr...
dwighttk 8y ago
How competitive will it be when all these model 3 owners start clogging them up?
- moorhosj 8y ago
  This would be a great problem for Tesla to have and a signal for them to simply build more stations/partnerships. It reminds me of great the Yogi Berra quote: "Nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded."
- ddoolin 8y ago
  When? That time has already arrived for many of us in California. :) Their response is to build more, of course, and to expand the current ones. I agree with the sibling that this is a good problem for Tesla to have, particularly as new Teslas are paying into those costs.
- andrewmunsell 8y ago
  It'll be worse for the next couple years as they ramp up, but I expect with Urban Superchargers coming in more places things will get better. It's even worse right now if you have a non-Tesla EV and rely on the 1-2 DCFC stations in some random mall and can't count on them being working or not filled. I really think the problem will be significantly worse for non-Tesla cars until another manufacturer-- or maybe an investor in EVGo or ChargePoint or some charging company-- invests hundreds of millions into building out new stations with large numbers of chargers, and maintains them.
- rconti 8y ago
  That's a great question. Model 3 owners pay to use superchargers where S/X owners typically do not. That said, it's not prohibitively expensive (26c/kWh in CA where it cost me 16c/kWh to home charge, off-peak only, in tier 1 (tip: I'm not in tier 1!) Because it's not prohibitively expensive, Model 3 owners will use them fairly regularly, but not to replace home charging in a way an S/X owner might. For the most part. Right before our 3 arrived new superchargers went in within 5mi from my house; 1 in East Palo Alto and 1 in San Carlos. They're virtually everywhere around the bay area now, so they've been pretty good at quick rollout of urban superchargers, and it FEELS LIKE they can keep up with demand, here at least. When I check on the map they're busy but never full.
outworlder 8y ago
> and Blink is notorious for having broken charging stations Yeah. Only time I got stranded was because the only reachable station was a Blink one. Sometimes I wonder if the name wasn't deliberately chosen.
- EVfuture 8y ago
  Hey! Where was the Blink station located that you were trying to use?
radiorental 8y ago
I'm pretty sure every Nissan dealer that sells a leaf must operate a charging station. Granted they're not as easy to access at the supercharger network... but it exists.
- andrewmunsell 8y ago
  They do, but no one wants to go to one of the few Nissan dealers in their area to charge their car in the event they need it. Not to mention, many dealers only have 1-2 chargers total, which is not sustainable for the number of cars that are (or will be) sold. Plus, what about the Bolt, Volt, i3, Soul EV, or any number of other EVs? They wouldn't be comfortable or possibly even welcome at a Nissan dealership to charge.
  - radiorental 8y ago
    > Plus, what about the Bolt, Volt, i3, Soul EV, or any number of other EVs? Only teslas can charge on the supercharger network afaik. And, Nissan dealers will let other manufacturers car's charge if you pay, ymmv but it happens. Listen, I'm not defending Nissan's setup, I'm just countering the point that there's only the supercharger network.
    - mikeash 8y ago
      Some dealers will let any car charge. Some will only accept Nissans. Some will only accept Nissans they sold. It’s a crapshoot.
      - radiorental 8y ago
        Plugshare.com is your friend.
  - user9995 8y ago
    >They do, but no one wants to go to one of the few Nissan dealers in their area to charge their car in the event they need it. Where I live we have 2 Nissan dealers and zero Supercharging stations.
TheSmiddy 8y ago
$2 an hour is incredibly cheap for CBD parking without the added electricity, that doesn't seem expensive to me at all.
- andrewmunsell 8y ago
  In my city (Bellevue, WA), there's ChargePoint stations operated by the city in free street parking and in the park, so the cost is entirely in the operation of the EV station and electricity. It might not seem bad, but it isn't necessarily competitive with a Supercharger or home charging in terms of cost. Blink is worse, at 39c-49c per kWh, which is about $2.50 per hour at the low end.
  - extrapickles 8y ago
    That is about twice the rate for Superchargers which the going rate in WA is $0.25/kwh.
what_ever 8y ago
While superchargers are great, I don't think they as big an advantage as you are making them to be. How often do you drive more than 200 miles in a day? 3 times a year? I am not going to buy a specific car for that reason. Besides using supercharger is not free as well. As more and more cars go electric, charging stations are going to be as common as gas stations and there will be competition with pricing etc. Not sure if I want to rely on one company's charging network.
- octorian 8y ago
  > While superchargers are great, I don't think they as big an advantage as you are making them to be. How often do you drive more than 200 miles in a day? 3 times a year? I am not going to buy a specific car for that reason. So every time you go on a road trip, what do you do? Get a ride to a rental car place, initial a stack of paperwork denying a half-dozen $10-25/day charges on top of whatever base rate you agreed to, finally get the keys to a super-bare-base-model of some car that looked good from the outside, drive it back to your house, then load everything up and hope for the best? Or would you rather just load up in the car you already own, and are comfortable and familiar with driving, and not need to budget an extra hour or two on either end of the drive for rental company nonsense? > Besides using supercharger is not free as well. As more and more cars go electric, charging stations are going to be as common as gas stations and there will be competition with pricing etc. Not sure if I want to rely on one company's charging network. Tesla's supercharger network is a huge advantage precisely because no one else has anything like it. It also now has a fair amount of redundancy along major routes. It would be wonderful if competing networks actually existed, but they meaningfully don't. Tesla realizes that you actually need the network, and that having it allows a Tesla car to be your only car. Everyone else just thinks they can sell something with X miles of range, wipe their hands, and thinks spending 8 hours at a ChargePoint station in a grocery store parking lot is actually acceptable.
Brakenshire 8y ago
Tesla currently has 400 supercharger sites in Europe, by 2020 Ionity, which is a consortium of Daimler, BMW, Porsche, Ford, Audi and VW, is planning to build 400 sites, with 6 bays each, most with a 350kW charging capacity.
- gameswithgo 8y ago
  The best situation would be if Ionity and Tesla can agree to merge, or share standards so everyone can charge at all of them. But I imagine Tesla will not be interested until Ionity has parity, or nearly so, with them.
  - rohit2412 8y ago
    Ionity does not follow their own personal standards. It is the CCS standard. Tesla is the outlier who went with its own proprietary standard. And a post builtout agreement is not going to change hardware connectors on a car.
    - gameswithgo 8y ago
      just need adapters.
      - greglindahl 8y ago
        Yep -- Tesla already shipped a Chademo adapter.
    - Multiplayer 8y ago
      My understanding is that Tesla wanted to use a standard for their build out but the standards committee dragged their feet in order to stall them. In Europe they do use a standard plug.
- ranman 8y ago
  Where will TSLA be in 2020 though? Will all of that construction really be done in Europe by 2020? It’s definitely possible but it seems improbable.
pandapower2 8y ago
>One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Its electric scooters rather than electric cars but Gogoro in Taiwan has built out a network of charging stations for the vehicles they sell. 810 "gostations" according to their website. https://www.gogoro.com/smart-energy/ https://www.gogoro.com/smart-energy/
- jjgod 8y ago
  810 stations in Taiwan. While Tesla built a global network.
MrStonedOne 8y ago
As long as they try and control access to them with blacklisting and the like, this is not an advantage. As somebody who will be in the market for a EV in the coming months, I've already discounted Tesla as an option for this reason.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- wilsonchaney 8y ago
  I mean...that's admirable, but why are you assuming that most of the potential EV buyers will do the same?
- mikeash 8y ago
  Most people don’t care. You buy a car and you charge it. Blacklisting only happens if you buy a car with a salvage title and repair it, which is not something done by the vast majority of people. I understand if this drives you away on principle, but you’re not representative.
  - MrStonedOne 8y ago
    >Blacklisting only happens... Now. The fact they do it at all is cause for concern. 50 cents says there is some terms you have to agree to that gives them the ability to blacklist for any reason. Why would anybody want to buy a car where the primary and sometimes only source of filling it up can blacklist your car world wide.
ethagknight 8y ago
Surely Pilot/Loves/FlyingJ et al will begin installing chargers in the near future. They would love a bunch of captives milling around their travel centers. That’s 1000+ locations, and they could install several thousand charging stalls in a matter of months. Since the super charger network currently exists, it is a competitive advantage for sure, but it also could become a liability having to honor free supercharging for some cars and then not really providing value over a travel center.
- AnthonyMouse 8y ago
  > Since the super charger network currently exists, it is a competitive advantage for sure, but it also could become a liability having to honor free supercharging for some cars and then not really providing value over a travel center. That's assuming they don't become travel centers themselves. That's actually another advantage. If they build travel centers around their superchargers, anyone with free supercharging (which is a large fraction of the current installed base) would prefer theirs over ones they have to pay for. But then they get all the people milling around buying coffee, burgers, phone chargers, sunscreen, etc. For that matter they could go into business with the truckstop companies. Supply the charging hardware and expertise to install/operate/maintain them at the truckstops in exchange for a share of the overall take.
- jungturk 8y ago
  This will definitely happen (and has already begun). Several of the Tesla superchargers I use are at independent gas stations just opposite the gas pumps. Once store owners see the value and demand, they'll likely support infrastructure for EV clients.
tempestn 8y ago
Worth noting that although other cars can't use Tesla's supercharger stations, there is an adapter you can get for a couple hundred bucks that will allow you to charge at all of Tesla's 'destination' charging stations.
flexie 8y ago
The supercharger network is indeed a massive advantage for Tesla. For now, it's obviously necessary, since the range of the cars on the road is generally limited to 200-300 miles. But even in 3-4 years, when new Teslas likely have a range of 400 miles, or in 7-8 years when the standard range is maybe 600 miles, it will grant drivers the certainty that even if they forget to charge at home or at work for several days, or even if they wanna do a road trip that exceeds the range, there will be the fall back of the super chargers. Given that the amount of Teslas on the roads is growing exponentially these months, Tesla will probably have to grow the supercharger network too. Until recently, there were around 300,000 Teslas on the roads worldwide sharing some 11,000 charging points at 1,350 super charging stations. Soon there are twice as many Teslas on the roads. Next Christmas maybe close to 1 million Teslas in total. They will need to expand with new locations, more charging points per location and faster charging times. Also, in 3-4 years there will be millions of old Teslas with today's "short" range that still will have to be serviced by super chargers. Most importantly, many apartment dwellers, i.e. the younger buyers in the cities that will constitute a great deal of the core customer base for Model 3 and Model Y once prices drop to $35,000 or below, may find it more convenient to use super chargers in stead of charging at home. This is especially true, if charging times can be reduced a bit. Going forward, Tesla can use the charging stations for all kind of things like promoting other products (solar tiles, powerwall batteries etc.) and even selling third party products, just like regular gas stations.
- sokoloff 8y ago
  > Given that the amount of Teslas on the roads is growing exponentially these months There's nothing exponential about the rate of growth of Teslas. Fast != exponential.
  - flexie 8y ago
    You seem to confuse mathematical exponentiation with the common use of the word: https://www.dictionary.com/browse/exponential https://www.dictionary.com/browse/exponential On a side note, I doubt that you would ever find a growth rate in business or economy that truly followed a mathematical function.
Sherl 8y ago
But I do see that planning a road trip in Tesla is going to require a lot of additional stops. Last time when when I planned for a coast to coast ride, it was 14 hours additional to a regular ride because of the charging time. It's 3000 mile so 10 stops. Sure I can kill those charging times if they bring their 600 mile range roadsters.
- jungturk 8y ago
  You can mitigate the impact of charging time by charging during meals and breaks (which is why the preponderance of superchargers are located next to restaurants). If your route allows, you can also take advantage of what Tesla calls "destination chargers" - Tesla chargers at hotels that are free-to-use for patrons.
Robotbeat 8y ago
Nissan has done a good job of installing CHAdeMO DC fast chargers at all their dealerships. I own a Leaf (bought used for $10k), and this allowed me to travel significant distances in spite of the small battery. Granted, this is a huge pain because: 1) Charge rate is 50kW peak, less than half of Supercharger’s 120kW. 2) Leaf battery is small, so you need to stop like every hour or so to charge. 3) 1st gen Leaf battery has no cooling. That’s right, none. Not even air cooling. It relies on thermal mass of the battery & very slow leakage of heat through the structure of the car. This is sufficient for daily commute usage, but Quickcharging produces heat. After 2 or 3 quickcharges, the battery is hot so quickharging rate reduces to more like 15-20kW to reduce heat production (power lost to heat is proportional to current squared, so halving charge rate halves the total heat per unit energy). Teslas and Bolts don’t have this problem as their batteries are liquid cooled. So you end up only being able to travel 200-300 miles in a day even with Quickcharging. And because of the small battery, Nissan needs a lot more chargers to enable a given trip. The new Leaf is supposed to have a >200 mile battery and 100kW charger. So about where Tesla was in 2012. But the existing charger network for CHAdeMO is only 40-50kW. Not too bad for an emergency stop, but if your whole trip is that slow charging, it’s significant. BTW, Teslas can use Chademos with a $500 adapter since the CHAdeMO standard is the basis for the Supercharger standard. Also, CHAdeMO is capable of bidirectional charging, so it’s possible to do vehicle-to-grid with a Nissan Leaf. CHAdeMO is a better standard than the CCS one, but unfortunately most other EVs are using CCS. And one big advantage Tesla’s Supercharger has is the plug is much smaller (and I believe cheaper to make!). CHAdeMO and CCS plugs are huge and unwieldy. And no one seems to be seeking a more sleek design like Tesla’s. Fortunately, though, it’s not TOO expensive to provide both a CHAdeMO plug and CCS plug, since the expensive power electronics are the same, just a different protocol and plug, so many DC fast charging stations have both.

crwalker 8y ago

How long do you think the current Supercharger network will be a large competitive advantage? I agree with Benedict Evan's point that electric charging will become a commodity: https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2018/8/29/tesla-software-and-disruption https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2018/8/29/tesla-soft...

olivermarks 8y ago
Wouldn't it be awful if you could only buy Ford gasoline from Ford gas stations? The lock in model is attractive until you think about broader implication, I agree with Evans too that it will be a commodity race to the bottom for recharging, with cost introduced for the power
- stephengillie 8y ago
  General Motors owns a patent on leaded gasoline. https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/gm-engineers-discover-that-leaded-gas-reduces-knock-in-auto-engines https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/gm-engineers-dis...
  - frostburg 8y ago
    Invented by the same person that invented Freon, too. Talented chemical engineer but possibly the most harmful human to have ever lived by some metrics.
    - JetSpiegel 8y ago
      The same guy who was killed by his own apparatus to get him out of bed after he caught polio. [1] 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Midgley_Jr.#Later_life_and_death https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Midgley_Jr.#Later_life_...
      - burger_moon 8y ago
        His whole wiki reads like a horror story. So many people died of lead poisoning at DuPont where they were developing it. > Midgley participated in a press conference to demonstrate the apparent safety of TEL, in which he poured TEL over his hands, placed a bottle of the chemical under his nose, and inhaled its vapor for 60 seconds, declaring that he could do this every day without succumbing to any problems.
- Mongus 8y ago
  Tesla's aren't locked into using Tesla chargers. They do have a proprietary connector on the vehicles but they come with several adapters including J1772. Superchargers are a phenomenal perk, not a lock in.
  - saagarjha 8y ago
    Are Superchargers free to use by people who have not bought Teslas?
andrewmunsell 8y ago
Eventually, yes, it will become a commodity. But the issue is, someone has to spend a lot of money to build out these chargers. Tesla has a big incentive to do it-- their very survival depended on early adopters willing to buy their car, which also means they need a place to charge it. Being able to go 100 miles from your house before you have to turn around was never going to work for car owners, hence Tesla's initial Supercharger build out. But other car manufacturers, for whatever reason, don't get this. They build their compliance cars with a modest investment in EVs, but honestly, they aren't very good. The Leaf has its niche-- it's a good city car with low range and low cost. The Bolt really is one of the first non-Tesla players with a decent range, yet you can't drive it from Seattle to Yosemite because the lack of chargers and GM isn't investing anything in them. The same goes for BMW. Volkswagen is forced to build chargers due to the diesel settlement, but ironically without their cheating and forced investment in EV, there would be fewer chargers out there than there are today (or in the near future). Maybe I'm wrong and hydrogen or some other form of fuel will win, but if EVs do, car manufacturers will be scrambling to catch up and invest in chargers. I don't think this will happen soon, but maybe in 5 years they'll start thinking about it. Really, if they wait until the Model Y in 2020 and Tesla starts eating their lunch in the biggest segment in the US (CUVs), it might wake them up sooner.
- crwalker 8y ago
  Agree - Tesla had an existential incentive to build chargers, but other car makers would prefer to wait and see (and let someone else build out the commodity chargers).
- gamblor956 8y ago
  Other carmakers don't need to build their own charging network. It's already being handled for them by thousands of businesses installing standards-compatible chargers. There are 3 new chargers on my block that were installed within the last month. Another 6 scheduled to be installed in my building's garage in the next month. That's in addition to the dozens that are already located in my part of LA. In Santa Monica, the city installed several dozen chargers in their city parking structures and lots. The Inglewood Stadium and the Dodgers are installing chargers in the off-season. Most malls have dedicated spots for charging EVs. Nearly every parking structure in Century City has EV chargers.... Meanwhile, the closest Tesla superchargers are nearly double-digit miles away, far from the freeways, so at best 30 minutes away without traffic and up to 3 hours away with traffic. And since there are so few of them, you basically cross your fingers and hope that one of them is free when you get there.
rconti 8y ago
I sure hope it does become a commodity! However, Tesla's network is not a disadvantage here; they can charge (just not FAST charge) from other chargers, and the fast charging can be 'bolted on' later, I'm sure, via an adapter and software update.
- greglindahl 8y ago
  The example from the past is that Tesla eventually came out with a Chaedemo adapter that worked with all existing S/X cars: https://shop.tesla.com/ca/en/product/vehicle-accessories/model-s_x-chademo-adapter.html https://shop.tesla.com/ca/en/product/vehicle-accessories/mod...
schiffern 8y ago
>electric charging will become a commodity Alas, I would have thought the same for ISPs. Any reason why EV charging won't naturally evolve into a similar overpriced, regulator capturing, locale-by-locale monopoly? I'm talking about the subset of the EV owners without home charging. Currently this number is small, but as battery prices drop and EVs become the de-facto 'regular car,' there's ~60% of the population who have no "at-cost" home charging (being locked-in to whatever exclusive vendor their apartment complex chooses). In this respect EVs are very different from gasoline vehicles, and I say this as a big supporter of EVs. I can drive across town to buy gas, but I can't park my car across town overnight. The problem with competing firms is that eventually someone wins.
- yurishimo 8y ago
  The thing is ISPs almost became a commodity until we figured out we could get higher speeds with cable infrastructure. We all remember the local phone company offering dial-up back in the 90s. In many European countries, ISPs are a commodity since the owners of the cable have to provide access to anyone at reasonable market rates. That's why the fight for net neutrality is so important.
- Obi_Juan_Kenobi 8y ago
  The comparison to your apartment example would be pay-laundry, not ISPs. ISPs gain monopolies because of the last-mile infrastructure. Charging services are quite interchangeable as electric service is already running to buildings.
  - schiffern 8y ago
    >Charging services are quite interchangeable Not for the tenants themselves. Tenants need permission from the owner to install charging infrastructure, and the owner has little incentive to allow competition because the vendor gives them a cut of the [overpriced] charging fee. Even California's progressive tenant EV charger law[1] doesn't apply if 10% (!) of parking spots already have chargers. Your example of pay laundry is instructive. In theory laundry service remains interchangeable (after all, "water/electric service is already running to the buildings"), but in practice the owner simply forbids tenants from installing their own laundry machines (typically citing flood risk). [1] https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201320140AB2565 https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml...
jread 8y ago
I disagree - I've been driving EVs exclusively (Ford Focus Electric followed by Tesla MS) since 2013 in So Cal and can attest to how poor user experience is with 3rd party charge networks. First of all, there are 4+ distinct networks each requiring separate account/payment setup and RFIDs. They are often broken, fully used, overpriced or cumbersome to start. Most are L2 with 20-30A - charging at <20 MPH. Fast chargers are sparse - and this is in California where the most EVs are sold in the US. When I leave the state, charge networks become almost nonexistent in many areas. To the contrary, user experience at Tesla superchargers is great. There are enough of them, evenly distributed, that I never have range anxiety, they work, they are usually not over crowded (although getting busier), they are free or at cost, they are high powered, usually located near nice amenities, and they are simple - pull in, plug in and wait 15-45 minutes. I don't see anything on the horizon from other manufacturers that will even remotely approximate what Tesla offers today with supercharging. Partnership/expansion of for-profit networks will never get there.
- user9995 8y ago
  >Partnership/expansion of for-profit networks will never get there. So people believe that Tesla is going to upend the entire auto industry, but can't believe that some company will figure out how to build nice charging stations? So many contradictions in the arguments here. Yes, the Supercharger network was, basically, necessary for Tesla to reach a critical acceptance level. But operating and maintaining those stations is not free. The idea that the major fuelling stations won't start adding fast chargers is incredibly naive. They already have the infrastructure and real estate. It's a no-brainer. If/when EV demand reaches those levels, it will happen.
  - ethbro 8y ago
    > The idea that the major fuelling stations won't start adding fast chargers is incredibly naive. They already have the infrastructure and real estate. Do they? I was under the impression most fueling stations had standard single-phase 200A hookups to the grid. So, at minimum, that would mean an electrical upgrade, no?
  - Robotbeat 8y ago
maxxxxx 8y ago
I winder if the Spuerchargers will at some point become an outdated liability once (if) other manufacturers decide on a standard. Being a first mover often can become a problem.
- Robotbeat 8y ago
  They’ve already decided on CHAdeMO and CCS, both of which are usually much slower and have a huge, unwieldy, and expensive plug. It’s not that hard for Tesla to adapt to a new standard, too. The power electronics are the same, just a different plug and protocol. Tesla’s can connect to a CHAdeMO charger with a relatively cheap adapter.
erikb 8y ago
Space stations will become a commodity as well. What I mean to say is, every product that is used by almost everybody will become a commodity at some point. That is not the question. The question is a) How long can you keep it from not becoming a commodity? b) How can you build your business model as market leader around it being a commodity? E.g. gas stops can be considered a commodity at this point, but the powerhouse oil companies still own the whole thing and make hundreds of billions out of gas sales. If Tesla can use their leverage and tech-know-how to get into that position for electrical gas stations they might be in a good position to take that leadership position for a generation or two in providing electricity for the cars, making more money than with actual car sales. So for Tesla, as much as for the not-yet-existing space station business, the fact that they will become commodities at some point is more of a strategic detail than a kill factor.

deepGem 8y ago

Until other companies step up and install DCFC stations everywhere Disclaimer: I am long TSLA I hightly doubt other car companies are gonna do this in a reaonable time frame (3-4 years). They will rely on the dealer network to build out the chargers and suck up the setup cost. Now dealers can potentially finance this with debt and get this done, but I doubt GM or any car company will be able to get consensus from the dealers and roll this ouut fast.

mediaman 8y ago
Agreed, and locating them at dealers is often an impractical choice for drivers: they are not consistently located strategically next to highways, sometimes they put them in an area that is not physically accessible outside of business hours (e.g., fenced yard), and the incentive to maintain them is less.
fossuser 8y ago
The current situation with dealers sucks for non-tesla EVs, they're often inside and not accessible. They have other cars parked in the way, the people at the dealer don't care, there aren't enough chargers etc.
- Robotbeat 8y ago
  Yeah, dealers regularly park cars in EV charging spots.
compcoffee 8y ago
VW is building out chargers as part of the diesel scandal settlement. https://www.electrifyamerica.com/our-plan https://www.electrifyamerica.com/our-plan
- andrewmunsell 8y ago
  Funny enough, that's the one current huge investment outside of Tesla in charging infrastructure. If it takes a car company cheating on emissions and being forced to invest in electric, then all of them are going to be doomed to playing catch up.

romwell 8y ago

Indeed. For all the talk about "range anxiety", it is a real concern that only Tesla seems to be actively working towards eliminating. I've needed to drive across the country every year for the past 4 years, and allocating extra days to stop and charge was never an option. That's one aspect where my cheap Honda beats most electric vehicles. For EV to go truly mainstream, that should not be the case.

taneq 8y ago
Best is the enemy of good, and perfect is the mortal enemy of best. Just because a vehicle isn't 100% perfect for 100% of people doesn't mean it isn't the best vehicle for most people.
- romwell 8y ago
  True, true. But in the end, a car is a car is a car. It gets me places. I'd say the ability to get to places is pretty critical for a car. It's what distinguishes it from something that's not a car, for example, a boat anchor. A long road-trip is not an edge case. It's the most affordable - and one of the most popular - ways to have a vacation[1]. National parks alone get over 300 million visits, but they're by far not the only destination. Overall, road trips account for an astonishing 39 percent of vacations[2]. As both articles note, the reasons to choose a road trip over flying include economical considerations; most people travel in their own cars. Does it mean that EV aren't good? No. But to prevail, EV need to be better than ICE cars at the same price point. And as of today, they are really not the best vehicle for most people, by far. Without the supercharger network, EV are not practical for most. See this thread[3] for examples of when Tesla owners use ICE cars. All that is to say that how good an EV is for most people is determined a lot by the available infrastructure. So good on Tesla for being way ahead of the competition here. [1]https://skift.com/2018/05/22/how-driving-defines-us-the-future-of-american-road-trips/ https://skift.com/2018/05/22/how-driving-defines-us-the-futu... [2]https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/16/travel/road-trips-in-the-united-states.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/16/travel/road-trips-in-the-... [3]https://www.quora.com/Do-Tesla-Model-S-owners-and-primary-drivers-keep-also-owning-and-driving-other-ICE-cars-day-to-day-and-trips https://www.quora.com/Do-Tesla-Model-S-owners-and-primary-dr...

dwighttk 8y ago

How competitive will it be when all these model 3 owners start clogging them up?

moorhosj 8y ago
This would be a great problem for Tesla to have and a signal for them to simply build more stations/partnerships. It reminds me of great the Yogi Berra quote: "Nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded."
ddoolin 8y ago
When? That time has already arrived for many of us in California. :) Their response is to build more, of course, and to expand the current ones. I agree with the sibling that this is a good problem for Tesla to have, particularly as new Teslas are paying into those costs.
andrewmunsell 8y ago
It'll be worse for the next couple years as they ramp up, but I expect with Urban Superchargers coming in more places things will get better. It's even worse right now if you have a non-Tesla EV and rely on the 1-2 DCFC stations in some random mall and can't count on them being working or not filled. I really think the problem will be significantly worse for non-Tesla cars until another manufacturer-- or maybe an investor in EVGo or ChargePoint or some charging company-- invests hundreds of millions into building out new stations with large numbers of chargers, and maintains them.
rconti 8y ago
That's a great question. Model 3 owners pay to use superchargers where S/X owners typically do not. That said, it's not prohibitively expensive (26c/kWh in CA where it cost me 16c/kWh to home charge, off-peak only, in tier 1 (tip: I'm not in tier 1!) Because it's not prohibitively expensive, Model 3 owners will use them fairly regularly, but not to replace home charging in a way an S/X owner might. For the most part. Right before our 3 arrived new superchargers went in within 5mi from my house; 1 in East Palo Alto and 1 in San Carlos. They're virtually everywhere around the bay area now, so they've been pretty good at quick rollout of urban superchargers, and it FEELS LIKE they can keep up with demand, here at least. When I check on the map they're busy but never full.

outworlder 8y ago

> and Blink is notorious for having broken charging stations Yeah. Only time I got stranded was because the only reachable station was a Blink one. Sometimes I wonder if the name wasn't deliberately chosen.

EVfuture 8y ago
Hey! Where was the Blink station located that you were trying to use?

radiorental 8y ago

I'm pretty sure every Nissan dealer that sells a leaf must operate a charging station. Granted they're not as easy to access at the supercharger network... but it exists.

andrewmunsell 8y ago
They do, but no one wants to go to one of the few Nissan dealers in their area to charge their car in the event they need it. Not to mention, many dealers only have 1-2 chargers total, which is not sustainable for the number of cars that are (or will be) sold. Plus, what about the Bolt, Volt, i3, Soul EV, or any number of other EVs? They wouldn't be comfortable or possibly even welcome at a Nissan dealership to charge.
- radiorental 8y ago
  > Plus, what about the Bolt, Volt, i3, Soul EV, or any number of other EVs? Only teslas can charge on the supercharger network afaik. And, Nissan dealers will let other manufacturers car's charge if you pay, ymmv but it happens. Listen, I'm not defending Nissan's setup, I'm just countering the point that there's only the supercharger network.
  - mikeash 8y ago
    Some dealers will let any car charge. Some will only accept Nissans. Some will only accept Nissans they sold. It’s a crapshoot.
    - radiorental 8y ago
      Plugshare.com is your friend.
- user9995 8y ago
  >They do, but no one wants to go to one of the few Nissan dealers in their area to charge their car in the event they need it. Where I live we have 2 Nissan dealers and zero Supercharging stations.

TheSmiddy 8y ago

$2 an hour is incredibly cheap for CBD parking without the added electricity, that doesn't seem expensive to me at all.

andrewmunsell 8y ago
In my city (Bellevue, WA), there's ChargePoint stations operated by the city in free street parking and in the park, so the cost is entirely in the operation of the EV station and electricity. It might not seem bad, but it isn't necessarily competitive with a Supercharger or home charging in terms of cost. Blink is worse, at 39c-49c per kWh, which is about $2.50 per hour at the low end.
- extrapickles 8y ago
  That is about twice the rate for Superchargers which the going rate in WA is $0.25/kwh.

what_ever 8y ago

While superchargers are great, I don't think they as big an advantage as you are making them to be. How often do you drive more than 200 miles in a day? 3 times a year? I am not going to buy a specific car for that reason. Besides using supercharger is not free as well. As more and more cars go electric, charging stations are going to be as common as gas stations and there will be competition with pricing etc. Not sure if I want to rely on one company's charging network.

octorian 8y ago
> While superchargers are great, I don't think they as big an advantage as you are making them to be. How often do you drive more than 200 miles in a day? 3 times a year? I am not going to buy a specific car for that reason. So every time you go on a road trip, what do you do? Get a ride to a rental car place, initial a stack of paperwork denying a half-dozen $10-25/day charges on top of whatever base rate you agreed to, finally get the keys to a super-bare-base-model of some car that looked good from the outside, drive it back to your house, then load everything up and hope for the best? Or would you rather just load up in the car you already own, and are comfortable and familiar with driving, and not need to budget an extra hour or two on either end of the drive for rental company nonsense? > Besides using supercharger is not free as well. As more and more cars go electric, charging stations are going to be as common as gas stations and there will be competition with pricing etc. Not sure if I want to rely on one company's charging network. Tesla's supercharger network is a huge advantage precisely because no one else has anything like it. It also now has a fair amount of redundancy along major routes. It would be wonderful if competing networks actually existed, but they meaningfully don't. Tesla realizes that you actually need the network, and that having it allows a Tesla car to be your only car. Everyone else just thinks they can sell something with X miles of range, wipe their hands, and thinks spending 8 hours at a ChargePoint station in a grocery store parking lot is actually acceptable.

Brakenshire 8y ago

Tesla currently has 400 supercharger sites in Europe, by 2020 Ionity, which is a consortium of Daimler, BMW, Porsche, Ford, Audi and VW, is planning to build 400 sites, with 6 bays each, most with a 350kW charging capacity.

gameswithgo 8y ago
The best situation would be if Ionity and Tesla can agree to merge, or share standards so everyone can charge at all of them. But I imagine Tesla will not be interested until Ionity has parity, or nearly so, with them.
- rohit2412 8y ago
  Ionity does not follow their own personal standards. It is the CCS standard. Tesla is the outlier who went with its own proprietary standard. And a post builtout agreement is not going to change hardware connectors on a car.
  - gameswithgo 8y ago
    just need adapters.
    - greglindahl 8y ago
      Yep -- Tesla already shipped a Chademo adapter.
  - Multiplayer 8y ago
    My understanding is that Tesla wanted to use a standard for their build out but the standards committee dragged their feet in order to stall them. In Europe they do use a standard plug.
ranman 8y ago
Where will TSLA be in 2020 though? Will all of that construction really be done in Europe by 2020? It’s definitely possible but it seems improbable.

pandapower2 8y ago

>One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Its electric scooters rather than electric cars but Gogoro in Taiwan has built out a network of charging stations for the vehicles they sell. 810 "gostations" according to their website. https://www.gogoro.com/smart-energy/ https://www.gogoro.com/smart-energy/

jjgod 8y ago
810 stations in Taiwan. While Tesla built a global network.

MrStonedOne 8y ago

As long as they try and control access to them with blacklisting and the like, this is not an advantage. As somebody who will be in the market for a EV in the coming months, I've already discounted Tesla as an option for this reason.

deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
wilsonchaney 8y ago
I mean...that's admirable, but why are you assuming that most of the potential EV buyers will do the same?
mikeash 8y ago
Most people don’t care. You buy a car and you charge it. Blacklisting only happens if you buy a car with a salvage title and repair it, which is not something done by the vast majority of people. I understand if this drives you away on principle, but you’re not representative.
- MrStonedOne 8y ago
  >Blacklisting only happens... Now. The fact they do it at all is cause for concern. 50 cents says there is some terms you have to agree to that gives them the ability to blacklist for any reason. Why would anybody want to buy a car where the primary and sometimes only source of filling it up can blacklist your car world wide.

ethagknight 8y ago

Surely Pilot/Loves/FlyingJ et al will begin installing chargers in the near future. They would love a bunch of captives milling around their travel centers. That’s 1000+ locations, and they could install several thousand charging stalls in a matter of months. Since the super charger network currently exists, it is a competitive advantage for sure, but it also could become a liability having to honor free supercharging for some cars and then not really providing value over a travel center.

AnthonyMouse 8y ago
> Since the super charger network currently exists, it is a competitive advantage for sure, but it also could become a liability having to honor free supercharging for some cars and then not really providing value over a travel center. That's assuming they don't become travel centers themselves. That's actually another advantage. If they build travel centers around their superchargers, anyone with free supercharging (which is a large fraction of the current installed base) would prefer theirs over ones they have to pay for. But then they get all the people milling around buying coffee, burgers, phone chargers, sunscreen, etc. For that matter they could go into business with the truckstop companies. Supply the charging hardware and expertise to install/operate/maintain them at the truckstops in exchange for a share of the overall take.
jungturk 8y ago
This will definitely happen (and has already begun). Several of the Tesla superchargers I use are at independent gas stations just opposite the gas pumps. Once store owners see the value and demand, they'll likely support infrastructure for EV clients.

tempestn 8y ago

Worth noting that although other cars can't use Tesla's supercharger stations, there is an adapter you can get for a couple hundred bucks that will allow you to charge at all of Tesla's 'destination' charging stations.

flexie 8y ago

The supercharger network is indeed a massive advantage for Tesla. For now, it's obviously necessary, since the range of the cars on the road is generally limited to 200-300 miles. But even in 3-4 years, when new Teslas likely have a range of 400 miles, or in 7-8 years when the standard range is maybe 600 miles, it will grant drivers the certainty that even if they forget to charge at home or at work for several days, or even if they wanna do a road trip that exceeds the range, there will be the fall back of the super chargers. Given that the amount of Teslas on the roads is growing exponentially these months, Tesla will probably have to grow the supercharger network too. Until recently, there were around 300,000 Teslas on the roads worldwide sharing some 11,000 charging points at 1,350 super charging stations. Soon there are twice as many Teslas on the roads. Next Christmas maybe close to 1 million Teslas in total. They will need to expand with new locations, more charging points per location and faster charging times. Also, in 3-4 years there will be millions of old Teslas with today's "short" range that still will have to be serviced by super chargers. Most importantly, many apartment dwellers, i.e. the younger buyers in the cities that will constitute a great deal of the core customer base for Model 3 and Model Y once prices drop to $35,000 or below, may find it more convenient to use super chargers in stead of charging at home. This is especially true, if charging times can be reduced a bit. Going forward, Tesla can use the charging stations for all kind of things like promoting other products (solar tiles, powerwall batteries etc.) and even selling third party products, just like regular gas stations.

sokoloff 8y ago
> Given that the amount of Teslas on the roads is growing exponentially these months There's nothing exponential about the rate of growth of Teslas. Fast != exponential.
- flexie 8y ago
  You seem to confuse mathematical exponentiation with the common use of the word: https://www.dictionary.com/browse/exponential https://www.dictionary.com/browse/exponential On a side note, I doubt that you would ever find a growth rate in business or economy that truly followed a mathematical function.

Sherl 8y ago

But I do see that planning a road trip in Tesla is going to require a lot of additional stops. Last time when when I planned for a coast to coast ride, it was 14 hours additional to a regular ride because of the charging time. It's 3000 mile so 10 stops. Sure I can kill those charging times if they bring their 600 mile range roadsters.

jungturk 8y ago
You can mitigate the impact of charging time by charging during meals and breaks (which is why the preponderance of superchargers are located next to restaurants). If your route allows, you can also take advantage of what Tesla calls "destination chargers" - Tesla chargers at hotels that are free-to-use for patrons.

Robotbeat 8y ago

Nissan has done a good job of installing CHAdeMO DC fast chargers at all their dealerships. I own a Leaf (bought used for $10k), and this allowed me to travel significant distances in spite of the small battery. Granted, this is a huge pain because: 1) Charge rate is 50kW peak, less than half of Supercharger’s 120kW. 2) Leaf battery is small, so you need to stop like every hour or so to charge. 3) 1st gen Leaf battery has no cooling. That’s right, none. Not even air cooling. It relies on thermal mass of the battery & very slow leakage of heat through the structure of the car. This is sufficient for daily commute usage, but Quickcharging produces heat. After 2 or 3 quickcharges, the battery is hot so quickharging rate reduces to more like 15-20kW to reduce heat production (power lost to heat is proportional to current squared, so halving charge rate halves the total heat per unit energy). Teslas and Bolts don’t have this problem as their batteries are liquid cooled. So you end up only being able to travel 200-300 miles in a day even with Quickcharging. And because of the small battery, Nissan needs a lot more chargers to enable a given trip. The new Leaf is supposed to have a >200 mile battery and 100kW charger. So about where Tesla was in 2012. But the existing charger network for CHAdeMO is only 40-50kW. Not too bad for an emergency stop, but if your whole trip is that slow charging, it’s significant. BTW, Teslas can use Chademos with a $500 adapter since the CHAdeMO standard is the basis for the Supercharger standard. Also, CHAdeMO is capable of bidirectional charging, so it’s possible to do vehicle-to-grid with a Nissan Leaf. CHAdeMO is a better standard than the CCS one, but unfortunately most other EVs are using CCS. And one big advantage Tesla’s Supercharger has is the plug is much smaller (and I believe cheaper to make!). CHAdeMO and CCS plugs are huge and unwieldy. And no one seems to be seeking a more sleek design like Tesla’s. Fortunately, though, it’s not TOO expensive to provide both a CHAdeMO plug and CCS plug, since the expensive power electronics are the same, just a different protocol and plug, so many DC fast charging stations have both.