5 ms·

> In 10 years there will be a dozen 1 trillion dollar companies. The number of $100B companies is going to explode as well. Devil's advocate, is that actually

by dxhdr 8y ago

> In 10 years there will be a dozen 1 trillion dollar companies. The number of $100B companies is going to explode as well. Devil's advocate, is that actually a good thing? Might be good for the consumer but not great for the laborer. Working for someone else is a bummer. Increasing consolidation means increasingly more of us will be in that position.

jniedrauer 8y ago
> Might be good for the consumer I find this highly unlikely as well.
- redmaverick 8y ago
  Why not? Hypothetical situation: Healthcare/Surgery could be practically free. You slide into a machine and there is an AI running on the cloud which compares your health data with your prior states and also with billions of other records from other human beings and makes the perfect diagnosis. Then it makes the precise cut into your flesh and gives you the perfect amount of anesthesia and inserts the stent and your heart surgery is done. You don't need a radiologist, a general practitioner, a cardiologist etc.
  - JoeAltmaier 8y ago
    And if anything goes wrong, we just assume it was unavoidable and not, say, a bug. So bugs don't get found and people die and nobody cares. Just spinning another possible scenario. It could still be a net gain since vastly more people get the care they need.
    - briandear 8y ago
      There are plenty of bugs in normal, human-delivered medicine. Medical errors are a massive source of death and disability in modern medicine.
      - JoeAltmaier 8y ago
        But are they systematic and across potentially thousands of identically-programmed bots, all updated at the same time? The potential for widespread simultaneous errors is colossal.
        jacobedawson 8y ago
        As is the potential for instantaneous updating of optimised procedures, which would take years to decades with humans. In the end I'm certain they won't be infallible, but just as with autonomous vehicles they're likely to be many orders of magnitude more reliable than humans.
  - samstave 8y ago
    The only thing that WONT happen in your prediction is the "free" part. Hell, Intuitive Surgcal (makers of the Davinci) already have plenty of data to run procedures automated - but they wont do that yet... The data from recorded successful surgical procedures executed by robots but driven by human surgeons is extremely valuable data. That will be an interesting fronteir in med when you can run diffs across thousands of surgeries to smooth out the execution tailored to each particular subject.
  - antaviana 8y ago
    That already exists. I’ve seen it in Elysium or Passengers.
max76 8y ago
I think playing Devil's advocate would be to say my prediction is wrong. You are discussing the moral and ethical implications of my prediction, which is not a direction I am interesting in exploring now. The future will have it's own set of advantages and disadvantages. It's important to leverage your own position in the present to give yourself a better position in the future.
- dxhdr 8y ago
  My intent was to get at the moral and ethical implications of desiring to create a $100B company.
- ihm 8y ago
  If you're in a position to create a $100B company, don't you think you're in a position to help create the kind of future society that will benefit everyone rather than merely trying to look out for oneself in the context of a fait accompli future?
  - SuoDuanDao 8y ago
    Keep in mind the basic premise of OP's post - that success requires an accurate vision of the future and positioning oneself for it. OP probably can't imagine a plausible future that will benefit everyone, if you can... obviously it would be best to position yourself for it.
samstave 8y ago
Yeah, the future is the Dystopian-Cyberpunk-Anime future of the mega-corporation-government-states which own and control everything. People may say that is too-dystopian and cynical of a perspective, but all data-points over the last several decades are very solidly pointing in this direction.... There will certainly be lots of 10B, 50B and 100B companies - then the 1-5T companies will consume them just as the 5B companies grabbed up everything they could to build their moats over the last few years. There will be cyber-wars for privacy in the next 20 years. There will be digital outcasts who seek to hack and bring down large systems. There will be plenty of cyber-terrorism to come. Personally, I thin kthe US is sitting on its laurels way too much and will be completely unprepared for a real cyberwar when it actually happens. Anyone know of some good authors with a contemporary grasp of where we currently are with technology who is putting out some good cyberpunk fiction about the impending future?
- elorant 8y ago
  Anyone know of some good authors with a contemporary grasp of where we currently are with technology who is putting out some good cyberpunk fiction about the impending future? Gibson is the master of the genre.
  - samstave 8y ago
    Neuromancer is what made me. Cyberpunk was what i was in the late 80s through today. But I see the dystopian dark nature of it. I helped, along with everyone on HN, build this monster we have now. I tried Gibson's latest story, and I wasnt too into it...
- neuromancer2701 8y ago
  I love Daniel Suarez's pair: Daemon and FreedomTM.
- thx11389793 8y ago
  Neal Stephenson has done world building involving megacorporations that devolve into semi-feudal colonies. His style is goofier than Gibson's gritty realism but worth reading.
heurist 8y ago
I think decentralization will be a bigger theme in the next decade. Crypto nerds got a huge amount of surprise money in 2017 and the smart ones seem to be taking advantage of it. Even if only a small fraction of those are pursuing worthwhile projects I think the stage is set for a wave of "surprise" upsets 5-10 years down the line. The biggest will get bigger in that time as well, but they'll also be reaching the age where they start slowing down and turning consumers off with out-of-touch decisions.

by dxhdr 8y ago

jniedrauer 8y ago

> Might be good for the consumer I find this highly unlikely as well.

redmaverick 8y ago
Why not? Hypothetical situation: Healthcare/Surgery could be practically free. You slide into a machine and there is an AI running on the cloud which compares your health data with your prior states and also with billions of other records from other human beings and makes the perfect diagnosis. Then it makes the precise cut into your flesh and gives you the perfect amount of anesthesia and inserts the stent and your heart surgery is done. You don't need a radiologist, a general practitioner, a cardiologist etc.
- JoeAltmaier 8y ago
  And if anything goes wrong, we just assume it was unavoidable and not, say, a bug. So bugs don't get found and people die and nobody cares. Just spinning another possible scenario. It could still be a net gain since vastly more people get the care they need.
  - briandear 8y ago
    There are plenty of bugs in normal, human-delivered medicine. Medical errors are a massive source of death and disability in modern medicine.
    - JoeAltmaier 8y ago
      But are they systematic and across potentially thousands of identically-programmed bots, all updated at the same time? The potential for widespread simultaneous errors is colossal.
      - jacobedawson 8y ago
        As is the potential for instantaneous updating of optimised procedures, which would take years to decades with humans. In the end I'm certain they won't be infallible, but just as with autonomous vehicles they're likely to be many orders of magnitude more reliable than humans.
- samstave 8y ago
  The only thing that WONT happen in your prediction is the "free" part. Hell, Intuitive Surgcal (makers of the Davinci) already have plenty of data to run procedures automated - but they wont do that yet... The data from recorded successful surgical procedures executed by robots but driven by human surgeons is extremely valuable data. That will be an interesting fronteir in med when you can run diffs across thousands of surgeries to smooth out the execution tailored to each particular subject.
- antaviana 8y ago
  That already exists. I’ve seen it in Elysium or Passengers.

max76 8y ago

I think playing Devil's advocate would be to say my prediction is wrong. You are discussing the moral and ethical implications of my prediction, which is not a direction I am interesting in exploring now. The future will have it's own set of advantages and disadvantages. It's important to leverage your own position in the present to give yourself a better position in the future.

dxhdr 8y ago
My intent was to get at the moral and ethical implications of desiring to create a $100B company.
ihm 8y ago
If you're in a position to create a $100B company, don't you think you're in a position to help create the kind of future society that will benefit everyone rather than merely trying to look out for oneself in the context of a fait accompli future?
- SuoDuanDao 8y ago
  Keep in mind the basic premise of OP's post - that success requires an accurate vision of the future and positioning oneself for it. OP probably can't imagine a plausible future that will benefit everyone, if you can... obviously it would be best to position yourself for it.

samstave 8y ago

Yeah, the future is the Dystopian-Cyberpunk-Anime future of the mega-corporation-government-states which own and control everything. People may say that is too-dystopian and cynical of a perspective, but all data-points over the last several decades are very solidly pointing in this direction.... There will certainly be lots of 10B, 50B and 100B companies - then the 1-5T companies will consume them just as the 5B companies grabbed up everything they could to build their moats over the last few years. There will be cyber-wars for privacy in the next 20 years. There will be digital outcasts who seek to hack and bring down large systems. There will be plenty of cyber-terrorism to come. Personally, I thin kthe US is sitting on its laurels way too much and will be completely unprepared for a real cyberwar when it actually happens. Anyone know of some good authors with a contemporary grasp of where we currently are with technology who is putting out some good cyberpunk fiction about the impending future?

elorant 8y ago
Anyone know of some good authors with a contemporary grasp of where we currently are with technology who is putting out some good cyberpunk fiction about the impending future? Gibson is the master of the genre.
- samstave 8y ago
  Neuromancer is what made me. Cyberpunk was what i was in the late 80s through today. But I see the dystopian dark nature of it. I helped, along with everyone on HN, build this monster we have now. I tried Gibson's latest story, and I wasnt too into it...
neuromancer2701 8y ago
I love Daniel Suarez's pair: Daemon and FreedomTM.
thx11389793 8y ago
Neal Stephenson has done world building involving megacorporations that devolve into semi-feudal colonies. His style is goofier than Gibson's gritty realism but worth reading.

heurist 8y ago

I think decentralization will be a bigger theme in the next decade. Crypto nerds got a huge amount of surprise money in 2017 and the smart ones seem to be taking advantage of it. Even if only a small fraction of those are pursuing worthwhile projects I think the stage is set for a wave of "surprise" upsets 5-10 years down the line. The biggest will get bigger in that time as well, but they'll also be reaching the age where they start slowing down and turning consumers off with out-of-touch decisions.