5 ms·

Sorry couldn't help but LOL and sorry for getting off-topic. >Al Gore is an expert on Climate Change. Might need to rethink that. He's a fundraiser and tv per

Sorry couldn't help but LOL and sorry for getting off-topic. >Al Gore is an expert on Climate Change. Might need to rethink that. He's a fundraiser and tv personality. Think 'evangelist'. It's not evident that he understands complex systems or probabilities better than say, Taleb. AFAIK, so far all his historic projections have been incorrect. This is the danger of 'celebrity'. Similar with Neil DeGasse. That said, I do think it's interesting, what Taleb said about "you should go to a surgeon that doesn't look like a surgeon"...if one can be successful in a field without succumbing to stereotype-aligned but inconsequential norms, they might just know what they are saying, other wise, they'd be the first ones thrown out of the boat by colleagues. Do be careful about reinforcing your own bubble. Much of what you said would have you doing that, vis-a-vie media-based indication of what is 'an expert'.

jpttsn 8y ago
The Taleb thing (going furter off topic) seems too reliant on an “efficient market.” I bet bad surgeons harm patients at a higher rate than good surgeons throw bad suregons out of the boat. https://forbetterscience.com/2016/02/21/macchiarini-and-karolinska-the-biomedical-ethics-meltdown/ https://forbetterscience.com/2016/02/21/macchiarini-and-karo...
- rurp 8y ago
  Taleb isn't arguing that someone who doesn't look like a surgeon will necessarily be a good one, just that they are more likely to be good, relative to a surgeon who got there with fewer obstacles.
VikingCoder 8y ago
I am a human with limited time and resources. If you want me to name right now one human being that I trust to guide me in the right direction on Climate Change, it's Al Gore. Al Gore would then, as I have seen him do, put actual scientists up on a pedestal. His most important role would be to help me find the REAL, underlying authorities. I would as likely be to say, "I would likely trust any of the authors of the IPCC." And again, yes, I would trust Neil deGrasse Tyson to help me find authorities. I would have trusted Carl Sagan to help me find authorities. I would trust Bill Nye to help me find authorities. If you picture the world in some kind of N-Dimensional space of authority and ignorance, I think Al Gore, Neil deGrasse Tyson, Carl Sagan, and Bill Nye are pointed in the right direction. And I think they're aware (or were aware) that they were not themselves the sources of that authority, but merely spokespeople for it. I'd start with them. Because I don't honestly know who to REALLY listen to. After I've started on my path, I'd hope to find out the differences within the schools of thought on any given subject. And I'd hope I'd be open to having my mind changed, on anything. I am completely aware of the problem of the bubble. Another thing I want to do is to specifically find people who share ALMOST ALL of my views, but differ with me on some important subject. Because I think a discussion between me and them would be based on shared views, and would be very fruitful. I'd also like people to volunteer information about themselves (aggregated and anonymized), so that I can find out, "Out of US Citizen, Christian, college-educated people earning more than $100k per year, how many of them believe in anthropogenic climate change?" And other questions like that. Yes, huge bias, because of self-reported people, etc. But still. Being able to even sample HN or Reddit on those kinds of questions would be super interesting. And I'd desperately want to keep bots out of this, and I'd often want to filter out people who aren't KNOWN to be from the US or living in the US. Often I'd care what people in other countries think, but often I just don't.
lisper 8y ago
> It's not evident that he understands complex systems It's not evident that he understand evangelizing either. Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge fan of Al Gore. The world wold be a much better place if he had won the 2000 election. But the one image that sticks with me is the scene in "An Inconvenient Truth" where Al is being driven around in the back seat of a plush town car. A more tone-deaf image in that context is hard to imagine.
- wmeredith 8y ago
  I also found that humorous/obnoxious. He is literally a limousine liberal. (I say this as someone with a liberal streak myself.)
  - VikingCoder 8y ago
    Russell Brand, of all people, caught my attention one time. He said when he criticized the flaws of capitalism when he was poor, people called him jealous. When he criticized the flaws of capitalism when he was wealthy, people called him a hypocrite. They're all ad hominem attacks. But when he's criticized for being both too poor, and for being too rich, and his message didn't change, it's particularly obvious that people just don't want to hear his position, and will do anything to discredit him.
    - skygazer 8y ago
      I agree with your sentiment and like your example, but in fairness to "the people" criticizing him, it's probably different people in each instance of criticism. We personify groups of people, and then treat them as fungible units of a universal (if hypocritical) collective. Individuals will criticize everything, if given enough time and resources.
- VikingCoder 8y ago
  I've seen people call Gore a hypocrite for flying around. He believes in carbon offsets. He's also not opposed to capitalism. So, spending money on luxury goods, and spending money to buy carbon offsets, is entirely in line with what he's stated are his views. You're welcome to your opinion on the matter, of course, but I wanted to highlight that I don't perceive riding in a plush town car is being out of line with his message of acting on Climate Change.

jpttsn 8y ago

The Taleb thing (going furter off topic) seems too reliant on an “efficient market.” I bet bad surgeons harm patients at a higher rate than good surgeons throw bad suregons out of the boat. https://forbetterscience.com/2016/02/21/macchiarini-and-karolinska-the-biomedical-ethics-meltdown/ https://forbetterscience.com/2016/02/21/macchiarini-and-karo...

rurp 8y ago
Taleb isn't arguing that someone who doesn't look like a surgeon will necessarily be a good one, just that they are more likely to be good, relative to a surgeon who got there with fewer obstacles.

VikingCoder 8y ago

I am a human with limited time and resources. If you want me to name right now one human being that I trust to guide me in the right direction on Climate Change, it's Al Gore. Al Gore would then, as I have seen him do, put actual scientists up on a pedestal. His most important role would be to help me find the REAL, underlying authorities. I would as likely be to say, "I would likely trust any of the authors of the IPCC." And again, yes, I would trust Neil deGrasse Tyson to help me find authorities. I would have trusted Carl Sagan to help me find authorities. I would trust Bill Nye to help me find authorities. If you picture the world in some kind of N-Dimensional space of authority and ignorance, I think Al Gore, Neil deGrasse Tyson, Carl Sagan, and Bill Nye are pointed in the right direction. And I think they're aware (or were aware) that they were not themselves the sources of that authority, but merely spokespeople for it. I'd start with them. Because I don't honestly know who to REALLY listen to. After I've started on my path, I'd hope to find out the differences within the schools of thought on any given subject. And I'd hope I'd be open to having my mind changed, on anything. I am completely aware of the problem of the bubble. Another thing I want to do is to specifically find people who share ALMOST ALL of my views, but differ with me on some important subject. Because I think a discussion between me and them would be based on shared views, and would be very fruitful. I'd also like people to volunteer information about themselves (aggregated and anonymized), so that I can find out, "Out of US Citizen, Christian, college-educated people earning more than $100k per year, how many of them believe in anthropogenic climate change?" And other questions like that. Yes, huge bias, because of self-reported people, etc. But still. Being able to even sample HN or Reddit on those kinds of questions would be super interesting. And I'd desperately want to keep bots out of this, and I'd often want to filter out people who aren't KNOWN to be from the US or living in the US. Often I'd care what people in other countries think, but often I just don't.

lisper 8y ago

> It's not evident that he understands complex systems It's not evident that he understand evangelizing either. Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge fan of Al Gore. The world wold be a much better place if he had won the 2000 election. But the one image that sticks with me is the scene in "An Inconvenient Truth" where Al is being driven around in the back seat of a plush town car. A more tone-deaf image in that context is hard to imagine.

wmeredith 8y ago
I also found that humorous/obnoxious. He is literally a limousine liberal. (I say this as someone with a liberal streak myself.)
- VikingCoder 8y ago
  Russell Brand, of all people, caught my attention one time. He said when he criticized the flaws of capitalism when he was poor, people called him jealous. When he criticized the flaws of capitalism when he was wealthy, people called him a hypocrite. They're all ad hominem attacks. But when he's criticized for being both too poor, and for being too rich, and his message didn't change, it's particularly obvious that people just don't want to hear his position, and will do anything to discredit him.
  - skygazer 8y ago
    I agree with your sentiment and like your example, but in fairness to "the people" criticizing him, it's probably different people in each instance of criticism. We personify groups of people, and then treat them as fungible units of a universal (if hypocritical) collective. Individuals will criticize everything, if given enough time and resources.
VikingCoder 8y ago
I've seen people call Gore a hypocrite for flying around. He believes in carbon offsets. He's also not opposed to capitalism. So, spending money on luxury goods, and spending money to buy carbon offsets, is entirely in line with what he's stated are his views. You're welcome to your opinion on the matter, of course, but I wanted to highlight that I don't perceive riding in a plush town car is being out of line with his message of acting on Climate Change.