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And it has happened before. And it's not widespread.

by dexterdog 8y ago

williadc 8y ago
It seems like you're leading to a conclusion. Could you be specific about what that conclusion is?
- james_pm 8y ago
  It seems like you're leading to an opposite conclusion to whatever conclusion you've applied to the comment. Did you want to be specific about what your conclusion is?
rhinesj 8y ago
“This has happened in the past,” Wada tells NHK, “but I don’t remember seeing anything on this scale.”
- vonzeppelin 8y ago
  The buds that are flourishing now in Japan won’t open again in the spring, but fortunately, the proportion of blossoms that have opened in recent days is relatively small. So, Wada tells NHK, the unseasonal bloom is not likely to affect the splendor of the cherry blossoms next spring.
empath75 8y ago
Assuming that it's because of global warming, you wouldn't suddenly expect them all to start blooming in september one year. You'd gradually see it happening more and more often, to more and more trees. That we've seen it before or that it isn't widespread doesn't mean that it's not a problem or a sign of a problem.
- kbutler 8y ago
  Stress-induced-flowering is well known - for example, https://www.canr.msu.edu/news/why_are_my_apples_blooming_in_fall https://www.canr.msu.edu/news/why_are_my_apples_blooming_in_... In what appears to be the source article: https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20181018_04/ https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20181018_04/ the arborist clarifies, "this year trees have lost their leaves, stripped off by violent winds or left to wither from salt exposure." Assuming it's because of global warming simply because it's an unusual environmental occurrence seems to be a popular pattern. Several news sources extrapolate to that as well, along with references to the pattern of earlier spring blooming in DC and Kyoto (more likely attributable to the urban heat island effect, as it started well before CO2-induced warming would have been significant).
olliej 8y ago
I’m assuming you’re trying to claim this is not related to global warming (“ it has happened before”). Global warming is a large scale and long term problem, and the first thing you would expect is an increase in frequency of previously uncommon events - take warm weather: historically there may have been a few year where the temp got to X degrees, from an average of Y degrees. But now the average Temperature has increased by a small amount. That shifts the entire normal curve of temperatures up. So now instead of X degrees being the 99th percentile (say) it becomes the 90th. The wonders of normal curves and statistics ensures that as small changes accrue the current extremes will rapidly become more common - a 1% increase in average temperature (random Number here) results in a frequency shift of more than 1% for the extremes. Then we get to the localized vs global issue. Global warming in an average increase in temperature across the world. The world is big, and so there will always be area that are substantially higher or lower temperature than other places, but by virtue of the above statistics over time the high temperature pockets will become larger and more common. The high temperature pockets and the increased energy in the atmosphere increase movement of the atmosphere around the globe - so yes you may also get occasional pockets of uncommon low temperature. that is likely cause by uncommonly “high” temperatures in the cold parts of the world pushing the higher than average cold air into new locations. Over time the average temperature of the cold areas will become “warm”. Finally, many biological and physical behaviors are purely a function of very specific temperatures. A lot of the biological behaviors (in plants especially) are direct products of physical laws - gas and fluid expansion being most common. Plenty of amphibians have gender determined entirely by temperature - something like 23.4c being the exact cutoff. Water freezes/thaws at exactly 0c - it doesn’t matter how small the difference is.
- 24gttghh 8y ago
  I'm saving this comment to use later as a succinct description of all the factors that go into what truely entails global warming. Thank you.
- briandear 8y ago
  And this is 100% correct. And, it has happened before. The world has had warming and cooling cycles for as long as there has been earth. The idea that all of this is a “new” thing isn’t supported by evidence.
rdiddly 8y ago
The article is funny, it says blossoms were sighted in "an area stretching from Kyushu... to Hokkaido." Unless there's some other Kyushu that I don't know about, that's the whole country. Look at a map, Ms. Brigit Katz of Smithsonian.com. Kyushu is at one end, Hokkaido is at the other. It's like if you said "an area stretching from California to Maine." Japan's not big, but I mean this is as "widespread" as you can get while still having the word "Japan's" in the title.

And it has happened before. And it's not widespread.

williadc 8y ago

It seems like you're leading to a conclusion. Could you be specific about what that conclusion is?

james_pm 8y ago
It seems like you're leading to an opposite conclusion to whatever conclusion you've applied to the comment. Did you want to be specific about what your conclusion is?

rhinesj 8y ago

“This has happened in the past,” Wada tells NHK, “but I don’t remember seeing anything on this scale.”

vonzeppelin 8y ago
The buds that are flourishing now in Japan won’t open again in the spring, but fortunately, the proportion of blossoms that have opened in recent days is relatively small. So, Wada tells NHK, the unseasonal bloom is not likely to affect the splendor of the cherry blossoms next spring.

empath75 8y ago

Assuming that it's because of global warming, you wouldn't suddenly expect them all to start blooming in september one year. You'd gradually see it happening more and more often, to more and more trees. That we've seen it before or that it isn't widespread doesn't mean that it's not a problem or a sign of a problem.

kbutler 8y ago
Stress-induced-flowering is well known - for example, https://www.canr.msu.edu/news/why_are_my_apples_blooming_in_fall https://www.canr.msu.edu/news/why_are_my_apples_blooming_in_... In what appears to be the source article: https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20181018_04/ https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20181018_04/ the arborist clarifies, "this year trees have lost their leaves, stripped off by violent winds or left to wither from salt exposure." Assuming it's because of global warming simply because it's an unusual environmental occurrence seems to be a popular pattern. Several news sources extrapolate to that as well, along with references to the pattern of earlier spring blooming in DC and Kyoto (more likely attributable to the urban heat island effect, as it started well before CO2-induced warming would have been significant).

olliej 8y ago

I’m assuming you’re trying to claim this is not related to global warming (“ it has happened before”). Global warming is a large scale and long term problem, and the first thing you would expect is an increase in frequency of previously uncommon events - take warm weather: historically there may have been a few year where the temp got to X degrees, from an average of Y degrees. But now the average Temperature has increased by a small amount. That shifts the entire normal curve of temperatures up. So now instead of X degrees being the 99th percentile (say) it becomes the 90th. The wonders of normal curves and statistics ensures that as small changes accrue the current extremes will rapidly become more common - a 1% increase in average temperature (random Number here) results in a frequency shift of more than 1% for the extremes. Then we get to the localized vs global issue. Global warming in an average increase in temperature across the world. The world is big, and so there will always be area that are substantially higher or lower temperature than other places, but by virtue of the above statistics over time the high temperature pockets will become larger and more common. The high temperature pockets and the increased energy in the atmosphere increase movement of the atmosphere around the globe - so yes you may also get occasional pockets of uncommon low temperature. that is likely cause by uncommonly “high” temperatures in the cold parts of the world pushing the higher than average cold air into new locations. Over time the average temperature of the cold areas will become “warm”. Finally, many biological and physical behaviors are purely a function of very specific temperatures. A lot of the biological behaviors (in plants especially) are direct products of physical laws - gas and fluid expansion being most common. Plenty of amphibians have gender determined entirely by temperature - something like 23.4c being the exact cutoff. Water freezes/thaws at exactly 0c - it doesn’t matter how small the difference is.

24gttghh 8y ago
I'm saving this comment to use later as a succinct description of all the factors that go into what truely entails global warming. Thank you.
briandear 8y ago
And this is 100% correct. And, it has happened before. The world has had warming and cooling cycles for as long as there has been earth. The idea that all of this is a “new” thing isn’t supported by evidence.

rdiddly 8y ago

The article is funny, it says blossoms were sighted in "an area stretching from Kyushu... to Hokkaido." Unless there's some other Kyushu that I don't know about, that's the whole country. Look at a map, Ms. Brigit Katz of Smithsonian.com. Kyushu is at one end, Hokkaido is at the other. It's like if you said "an area stretching from California to Maine." Japan's not big, but I mean this is as "widespread" as you can get while still having the word "Japan's" in the title.