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Lottery tickets are sort of interesting. Yes they are a bad deal, but they're the highest variance "investment" you can get by a long shot. If you're very poo

by habosa 8y ago

Lottery tickets are sort of interesting. Yes they are a bad deal, but they're the highest variance "investment" you can get by a long shot. If you're very poor and stuck in a bad situation, there could 0.0% chance you ever become a millionaire through the normal mechanisms, maybe spending $1 a week on a lottery ticket raises that to 0.00000000001% and creates a bit more hope in your mind. Again, I'd never advise anyone to buy a lottery ticket. But if it makes you hopeful, maybe it's a better treat for yourself than a chocolate bar.

erichurkman 8y ago
Want to see something scary? https://www.businessinsider.com/powerball-mega-millions-how-much-states-spend-on-lottery-tickets-2018-1 https://www.businessinsider.com/powerball-mega-millions-how-... Per capita lottery spend by state: Massachusetts @ $761/year. West Virginia @ $594/year. Georgia @ $391/year.
- JoeAltmaier 8y ago
  And for me : about $2 per year
- hellogoodbyeeee 8y ago
  Is $800 a year a lot? Invested for 30 years with a 8% return it will be $100k or maybe $300/month in safe withdrawals. Im not trying to beg a question here... Really is that a lot of money? $300 isn't enough to live on but it's maybe a quarter of the poverty line? I guess that would be significant when added to social security. Is that per capital lottery spend just total sales divided by population? The more interesting statistic would be average spend by people who buy at least a ticket a month. I'm sure the $761/month is brought down by people who buy 0-5 tickets a year.
  - darpa_escapee 8y ago
    $800 buys a lot of food, pays a lot of bills and could keep a roof over your family's head for a month or two depending on where you live. Reminder that 40% of Americans can't cover a $400 emergency expense[1]. [1] https://money.cnn.com/2018/05/22/pf/emergency-expenses-household-finances/index.html https://money.cnn.com/2018/05/22/pf/emergency-expenses-house...
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
- jandrese 8y ago
  Even more crazy when you consider how many people never play the lotto. However, I think that's the gross spend. If a lotto system has a lot of little prizes it could inflate those numbers quickly. You might not win the $1.6B, but if your tickets win $1 or $2 on a regular basis then your net outlay could be quite a bit less. Effectively each ticket might only cost $0.25 instead of $1 because you get $0.75 back on average. On this chart it would look like you spent the full $1 each time because it doesn't include winnings.
- logicallee 8y ago
  Off-topic, but there's a meme on HN that startup equity should be considered "a lottery ticket" (as though you couldn't actively make it into a winner.) As a cute exercise (not too serious) based on your comment, I divided California's $23.8 billion in startup investment in 2017[1] by its population in 2017[2], which is 39.54 million, and got... $601. (Of course the entities buying these tickets are not necessarily "Californians", just thought this was an interesting take on "per-Capita" investment in a different sort of lottery ticket. It is also funding amounts, rather than opportunity costs people "invest" in these companies by working for reduced or no salary in exchanged for equity - which is the "cost" of the lottery ticket people usually talk about on HN. I just found the resulting number in this exercise really interesting and thought I'd share.) [1] https://tech.co/10-best-states-startup-funding-ranked-2017-07 https://tech.co/10-best-states-startup-funding-ranked-2017-0... [2] https://www.google.com/search?q=california+population+2017&oq=california+population+2017 https://www.google.com/search?q=california+population+2017&o...
AnIdiotOnTheNet 8y ago
There is one circumstance where I think buying a lottery ticket is worthwhile: your work colleagues have a lottery ticket pool. Not because it has a better chance of winning, but as insurance against the case that it does so you're not the one person who has to show up to work the next day.
- thecolorblue 8y ago
  There is a social part of buying a lottery ticket as a group, like splitting a meal at a restaurant.

by habosa 8y ago

erichurkman 8y ago

Want to see something scary? https://www.businessinsider.com/powerball-mega-millions-how-much-states-spend-on-lottery-tickets-2018-1 https://www.businessinsider.com/powerball-mega-millions-how-... Per capita lottery spend by state: Massachusetts @ $761/year. West Virginia @ $594/year. Georgia @ $391/year.

JoeAltmaier 8y ago
And for me : about $2 per year
hellogoodbyeeee 8y ago
Is $800 a year a lot? Invested for 30 years with a 8% return it will be $100k or maybe $300/month in safe withdrawals. Im not trying to beg a question here... Really is that a lot of money? $300 isn't enough to live on but it's maybe a quarter of the poverty line? I guess that would be significant when added to social security. Is that per capital lottery spend just total sales divided by population? The more interesting statistic would be average spend by people who buy at least a ticket a month. I'm sure the $761/month is brought down by people who buy 0-5 tickets a year.
- darpa_escapee 8y ago
  $800 buys a lot of food, pays a lot of bills and could keep a roof over your family's head for a month or two depending on where you live. Reminder that 40% of Americans can't cover a $400 emergency expense[1]. [1] https://money.cnn.com/2018/05/22/pf/emergency-expenses-household-finances/index.html https://money.cnn.com/2018/05/22/pf/emergency-expenses-house...
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
jandrese 8y ago
Even more crazy when you consider how many people never play the lotto. However, I think that's the gross spend. If a lotto system has a lot of little prizes it could inflate those numbers quickly. You might not win the $1.6B, but if your tickets win $1 or $2 on a regular basis then your net outlay could be quite a bit less. Effectively each ticket might only cost $0.25 instead of $1 because you get $0.75 back on average. On this chart it would look like you spent the full $1 each time because it doesn't include winnings.
logicallee 8y ago
Off-topic, but there's a meme on HN that startup equity should be considered "a lottery ticket" (as though you couldn't actively make it into a winner.) As a cute exercise (not too serious) based on your comment, I divided California's $23.8 billion in startup investment in 2017[1] by its population in 2017[2], which is 39.54 million, and got... $601. (Of course the entities buying these tickets are not necessarily "Californians", just thought this was an interesting take on "per-Capita" investment in a different sort of lottery ticket. It is also funding amounts, rather than opportunity costs people "invest" in these companies by working for reduced or no salary in exchanged for equity - which is the "cost" of the lottery ticket people usually talk about on HN. I just found the resulting number in this exercise really interesting and thought I'd share.) [1] https://tech.co/10-best-states-startup-funding-ranked-2017-07 https://tech.co/10-best-states-startup-funding-ranked-2017-0... [2] https://www.google.com/search?q=california+population+2017&oq=california+population+2017 https://www.google.com/search?q=california+population+2017&o...

AnIdiotOnTheNet 8y ago

There is one circumstance where I think buying a lottery ticket is worthwhile: your work colleagues have a lottery ticket pool. Not because it has a better chance of winning, but as insurance against the case that it does so you're not the one person who has to show up to work the next day.

thecolorblue 8y ago
There is a social part of buying a lottery ticket as a group, like splitting a meal at a restaurant.