4 ms·
Correlation does not equal causation.
by u801e 8y ago
Correlation does not equal causation.
- jsgo 8y agoNo disagreement there, but the correlation is apparently causing an increase in car insurance costs, regardless of causation.
- stickfigure 8y agothe correlation is apparently causing an increase in car insurance costs, regardless of causation This does not parse.
- timerol 8y agoInsurance companies notice a correlation, so increase rates to compensate. (Since insurance companies are in the business of spotting and correcting for correlations more than causes.) Therefore a correlation between states which legalize marijuana and increases in accidents cause an increase in car insurance costs. Marijuana doesn't need to cause accidents for this to be the case. What that analysis doesn't take into account is whether the next state to legalize marijuana will also have to deal with increased accident rates and insurance costs. This is IMO the more important question.
- coding123 8y agoI don't think correlation is even necessary to raise rates if there is a 5-6% increase in accidents. Also - in the states that went legal, there is an active population boom, but just as likely is being caused by tech startups. Population increases are more likely to cause an accident rate to increase. We just won't know (for sure) if pot or jobs are the cause for the population increases. Maybe it's pot jobs?
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- ska 8y agoThat's how insurance works.
- dschuler 8y agoI hear this so often without any other evidence to refute an argument.. Causation requires correlation. It's certainly not enough to prove causation, but it's actually a necessary starting point. Speaking of driving and marijuana, I've noticed a large increase in pot smoke coming from cars in traffic since marijuana was legalized in CA. I expect some of that to come from passengers, but people driving while high is no joke.
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- technofire 8y agoThe study incorporated many more variables than whether marijuana was legal in each state, including demographic factors, so this amounts to a controlled experiment.
- achileas 8y agoControlled experiments generally (especially in cases like these) still only show correlation.