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Does anyone have any guesses about what exactly the Saudi plan was when they killed Jamal Khashoggi? Surely they knew if they got blamed for the murder, it wou

by _cs2017_ 8y ago

Does anyone have any guesses about what exactly the Saudi plan was when they killed Jamal Khashoggi? Surely they knew if they got blamed for the murder, it would cost them much more in damaged relationships than it could possibly gain in eliminating a critic. And surely they knew a disappearance of a journalist seen on camera entering their consulate won't be ignored. Sorry for a slightly off topic question.

ozborn 8y ago
I'm guessing the crown prince was upset with his journalism, I don't think a deeper reason needs to be found. From inside the bubble of absolute power (when you have already killed and tortured dissidents, rivals and potential threats) adding this journalist to the kill list probably didn't seem like such a big deal. He was apparently surprised by the reaction to the whole affair. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/10/22/saudi-khashoggi-claims-fall-flat-riyadh-blindsided-bolton-in-moscow/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/10/22/saudi-khashoggi-claims-...
- _cs2017_ 8y ago
  According to that article, MBS "[...] was really shocked that there was such a big reaction to it. He feels betrayed by the West. He said he would look elsewhere and he will never forget how people turned against him before evidence was produced". Indeed at this point the evidence against MBS is only circumstantial, so that would be a reasonable point to make in a court of law. But in the world of politics, there's no presumption of innocence because common folk don't much care for that, and politicians and activists need to build upon popular emotions while the issue is hot. Is MBS so naive as to genuinely expect the population of the West to ignore the very strong circumstantial evidence? Or for the politicians to ignore the popular opinion and wait for hard evidence (which may take months, years, or decades for all we know)? Or is he just leaking this message to create an impression of innocence? Also, the two parts of the statement are somewhat in conflict. Is he shocked by reaction or is he shocked of being accused without evidence? If he is shocked by reaction, it suggests he thinks the killing isn't a big deal, which implicates him even more. If MBS wasn't involved. I can imagine two scenarios. 1. There was a general guideline to reduce regime criticism by any means necessary. Some officials decided to follow that guideline by demonstrating to the critics that can be killed at any time (note that they didn't just secretly assassinate Khashoggi making it look like an accident; they did in a way as to set an example). Wouldn't be the first time nor the last. But if that was the case, why didn't Saudi authorities quickly identify those responsible, and try and execute them? They can explain to the world they punished them because of their horrible acts. Internally, to their loyal followers, they can explain that they were executed for being total idiots who acted in a way that caused SKA irreparable harm and undermined MBS reputation in the world. 2. The powerful enemies of MBS did that to undermine MBS, and MBS cannot do anything about it because his power is limited. That would be consistent with MBS being outside the palace, and the King giving him more authority over the ingelligence services. However, if that's the case, why wouldn't MBS just say precisely that? The only downside is that he would admit weakness, but it seems like he has nothing to lose at this point, if people in his inner cirlce are basically trying to destroy him.
claytonjy 8y ago
The Saudis aren't stupid; they knew this would become an international news story, and they also knew the long-term impacts to them would be minimal. Killing a dissident this publicly is primarily a deterrent to future dissidents; if they can dismember a well-known critic this publicly with no recourse, lesser-known critics get the message.
crunchyfrog 8y ago
The latest report is that they sent out a body double in Khashoggi's clothes: https://www.apnews.com/2e7cc6f821a14c90bec0253fe9ae9527 https://www.apnews.com/2e7cc6f821a14c90bec0253fe9ae9527 It seems like they expected to throw up enough distractions that their denials would hold at least among those who wanted to believe them. I think they failed to anticipate how closely Turkey was watching their consulate or that his fiancée would be waiting outside.
- _cs2017_ 8y ago
  Hmm that is beyond understanding. I thought they wanted to make it look like a demonstration of power to all would-be critics. If they wanted to make it look like they weren't involved, aren't there much less risky ways to assassinate someone than to do it while they are visiting your consulate?

ozborn 8y ago

I'm guessing the crown prince was upset with his journalism, I don't think a deeper reason needs to be found. From inside the bubble of absolute power (when you have already killed and tortured dissidents, rivals and potential threats) adding this journalist to the kill list probably didn't seem like such a big deal. He was apparently surprised by the reaction to the whole affair. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/10/22/saudi-khashoggi-claims-fall-flat-riyadh-blindsided-bolton-in-moscow/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/10/22/saudi-khashoggi-claims-...

_cs2017_ 8y ago
According to that article, MBS "[...] was really shocked that there was such a big reaction to it. He feels betrayed by the West. He said he would look elsewhere and he will never forget how people turned against him before evidence was produced". Indeed at this point the evidence against MBS is only circumstantial, so that would be a reasonable point to make in a court of law. But in the world of politics, there's no presumption of innocence because common folk don't much care for that, and politicians and activists need to build upon popular emotions while the issue is hot. Is MBS so naive as to genuinely expect the population of the West to ignore the very strong circumstantial evidence? Or for the politicians to ignore the popular opinion and wait for hard evidence (which may take months, years, or decades for all we know)? Or is he just leaking this message to create an impression of innocence? Also, the two parts of the statement are somewhat in conflict. Is he shocked by reaction or is he shocked of being accused without evidence? If he is shocked by reaction, it suggests he thinks the killing isn't a big deal, which implicates him even more. If MBS wasn't involved. I can imagine two scenarios. 1. There was a general guideline to reduce regime criticism by any means necessary. Some officials decided to follow that guideline by demonstrating to the critics that can be killed at any time (note that they didn't just secretly assassinate Khashoggi making it look like an accident; they did in a way as to set an example). Wouldn't be the first time nor the last. But if that was the case, why didn't Saudi authorities quickly identify those responsible, and try and execute them? They can explain to the world they punished them because of their horrible acts. Internally, to their loyal followers, they can explain that they were executed for being total idiots who acted in a way that caused SKA irreparable harm and undermined MBS reputation in the world. 2. The powerful enemies of MBS did that to undermine MBS, and MBS cannot do anything about it because his power is limited. That would be consistent with MBS being outside the palace, and the King giving him more authority over the ingelligence services. However, if that's the case, why wouldn't MBS just say precisely that? The only downside is that he would admit weakness, but it seems like he has nothing to lose at this point, if people in his inner cirlce are basically trying to destroy him.

claytonjy 8y ago

The Saudis aren't stupid; they knew this would become an international news story, and they also knew the long-term impacts to them would be minimal. Killing a dissident this publicly is primarily a deterrent to future dissidents; if they can dismember a well-known critic this publicly with no recourse, lesser-known critics get the message.

crunchyfrog 8y ago

The latest report is that they sent out a body double in Khashoggi's clothes: https://www.apnews.com/2e7cc6f821a14c90bec0253fe9ae9527 https://www.apnews.com/2e7cc6f821a14c90bec0253fe9ae9527 It seems like they expected to throw up enough distractions that their denials would hold at least among those who wanted to believe them. I think they failed to anticipate how closely Turkey was watching their consulate or that his fiancée would be waiting outside.

_cs2017_ 8y ago
Hmm that is beyond understanding. I thought they wanted to make it look like a demonstration of power to all would-be critics. If they wanted to make it look like they weren't involved, aren't there much less risky ways to assassinate someone than to do it while they are visiting your consulate?