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Why do you believe none of the nation states in this region will "make it?"

analognoise 8y ago
I think the general perception is that the region doesn't have anything valuable to export once the oil is gone. They're trying to import scientists and engineers to kick off an economic transition, but those types of people will have zero interest in being in the region once the oil runs out, and the more educated amongst the local populace would leave too. It is already widely held (again, I don't have numbers for this) that the rich/powerful/educated have already secured real estate in other places should instability arise, meaning those people with means or skills would leave once the oil runs out, meaning they don't see a bright future in the region as well. With the recent news articles about the journalist being killed, all of the "modernization" thoughts people had are totally gone. There has been a lot of money thrown into architecting a modern image - all of which was completely undone in one single news cycle. I am no expert on the region though, just fielding some thoughts.
- Nasrudith 8y ago
  They have tried some moves but they can't break from the fundamentalism making their efforts pretty moot despite all of the money they throw at it. Mystifyingly they were clearly involved with getting a Sex and the City movie set there. They could have reformed to be a productive post petrol economy but I suspect it was too late even before they decided acting like mob hitmen against journalists was a good idea. You can influence media with money but murdering journalists gives them self preservation reasons to refuse to deal with you at all. Apparently there is a pessimism / old joke there paraphrased as grandfather rode a camel, they drove a jeep, their children drove ferraris and their grandchildren will ride camels.
golergka 8y ago
Arab petro-states are not the only nation states in the region.
- barry-cotter 8y ago
  > Arab petro-states are not the only nation states in the region. They’re the only ones I expressed an opinion on though. In the Arabian peninsula they’re a majority by population and in numbers. There are no non-Arab states on the peninsula at all. Which of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait and Oman do you see having a bright future?
- bloak 8y ago
  I don't think the term "nation state" is appropriate here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation_state https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation_state I can't work out whether the recent fashion for misusing (or at least generalising) the term "nation state" is just people trying to sound clever (and failing badly), or whether there's something more sinister behind it, perhaps some kind of neo-racism, something along the lines of: if you're an X-ian then you are automatically responsible for anything that an X-ian government agency does, even if the X-ian parliament was never told about it, let alone the general population of X-ia. It's probably just people trying to sound clever but when terminology is changed I'm curious about the reasons.
  - someguydave 8y ago
    This way of thinking folds neatly into modern identity politics that considers people as groups and not as individuals.
    - wallace_f 8y ago
      Jesus christ, I never thought when I asked this question the word nation state would be psychoanalyzed in order to call me a nazi. Wtf? Also, on reddit I was recently called an "anti-white racist." ok. For the record ai agree with your civil libertarian principle of treating people as equals, and not as part of groups.
      - someguydave 8y ago
        I don't think you are a nazi. I do find it amusing that there are many here who often push the idea that "group of people X's behavior must be collectively honored and respected" yet also push "group of people Y's behavior must be collectively punished". Also, real Nazis would definitely consider people as members of a group and not as individuals.

I think the general perception is that the region doesn't have anything valuable to export once the oil is gone. They're trying to import scientists and engineers to kick off an economic transition, but those types of people will have zero interest in being in the region once the oil runs out, and the more educated amongst the local populace would leave too. It is already widely held (again, I don't have numbers for this) that the rich/powerful/educated have already secured real estate in other places should instability arise, meaning those people with means or skills would leave once the oil runs out, meaning they don't see a bright future in the region as well. With the recent news articles about the journalist being killed, all of the "modernization" thoughts people had are totally gone. There has been a lot of money thrown into architecting a modern image - all of which was completely undone in one single news cycle. I am no expert on the region though, just fielding some thoughts.

Nasrudith 8y ago
They have tried some moves but they can't break from the fundamentalism making their efforts pretty moot despite all of the money they throw at it. Mystifyingly they were clearly involved with getting a Sex and the City movie set there. They could have reformed to be a productive post petrol economy but I suspect it was too late even before they decided acting like mob hitmen against journalists was a good idea. You can influence media with money but murdering journalists gives them self preservation reasons to refuse to deal with you at all. Apparently there is a pessimism / old joke there paraphrased as grandfather rode a camel, they drove a jeep, their children drove ferraris and their grandchildren will ride camels.

golergka 8y ago

Arab petro-states are not the only nation states in the region.

barry-cotter 8y ago
> Arab petro-states are not the only nation states in the region. They’re the only ones I expressed an opinion on though. In the Arabian peninsula they’re a majority by population and in numbers. There are no non-Arab states on the peninsula at all. Which of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait and Oman do you see having a bright future?
bloak 8y ago
I don't think the term "nation state" is appropriate here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation_state https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation_state I can't work out whether the recent fashion for misusing (or at least generalising) the term "nation state" is just people trying to sound clever (and failing badly), or whether there's something more sinister behind it, perhaps some kind of neo-racism, something along the lines of: if you're an X-ian then you are automatically responsible for anything that an X-ian government agency does, even if the X-ian parliament was never told about it, let alone the general population of X-ia. It's probably just people trying to sound clever but when terminology is changed I'm curious about the reasons.
- someguydave 8y ago
  This way of thinking folds neatly into modern identity politics that considers people as groups and not as individuals.
  - wallace_f 8y ago
    Jesus christ, I never thought when I asked this question the word nation state would be psychoanalyzed in order to call me a nazi. Wtf? Also, on reddit I was recently called an "anti-white racist." ok. For the record ai agree with your civil libertarian principle of treating people as equals, and not as part of groups.
    - someguydave 8y ago
      I don't think you are a nazi. I do find it amusing that there are many here who often push the idea that "group of people X's behavior must be collectively honored and respected" yet also push "group of people Y's behavior must be collectively punished". Also, real Nazis would definitely consider people as members of a group and not as individuals.