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I read somewhere, and sorry I don’t remember the source, that Kodak knew the digital future was coming, but they didn’t believe the speed with which it arrived.

I read somewhere, and sorry I don’t remember the source, that Kodak knew the digital future was coming, but they didn’t believe the speed with which it arrived. Kodak was one of the first companies with digital cameras.

kemiller 8y ago
They were addicted to fat film profits and couldn’t read an exponential curve.
- ghaff 8y ago
  That's probably true but good luck when your primary revenue source falls off an utter cliff which is basically what happened with film sales. You basically have to build a new $20 billion company within a few years.
  - kemiller 8y ago
    Oh yeah I get it. They were in a tough spot. But they still almost went out of their way, it felt like, to screw with the parts of their business that were trying to save them.
- throwaway2048 8y ago
  Kodak was larger than the entire digital camera industry currently is, by almost 3x, $31 billion[1] in 1993 dollars which is 31 billion in 54 billion in 2018 dollars[2]. The entire digital camera industry was worth about 18 billion in 2017[3] Even if they captured 100% of the market (which would have been basically completely impossible), it would have been a massive disaster for them as a company, and to the hundreds of thousands of people they employed in photo processing. [1] https://www.photosecrets.com/the-rise-and-fall-of-kodak https://www.photosecrets.com/the-rise-and-fall-of-kodak [2] http://www.in2013dollars.com/1993-dollars-in-2018?amount=31000000000 http://www.in2013dollars.com/1993-dollars-in-2018?amount=310... [3] https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/4514578/digital-camera-market-global-industry-trends https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/4514578/digital-c...
  - jl6 8y ago
    Does that 18 billion include the smartphone industry? I think phones are the real successor of the mass-market element of Kodak’s business.
    - vkou 8y ago
      Pivoting from making film and cameras to making cellphones would have been like McDonalds pivoting into becoming a laptop manufacturer. Yes, cellphones contain a camera, but the similarities end there.
      - simias 8y ago
        You're talking from an industrial perspective and the parent is talking from a user perspective. You're both right. Smartphones replaced compact cameras for a huge portion of casual photographers but as you point out it's not like camera makers could easily pivot into making smartphones (some of them probably could have if they had anticipated the trend enough, but by the time the iphone came out it was probably already too late to catch up).
      - pdpi 8y ago
        The point is that, if that $18B number includes phones, Kodak wouldn’t even be able to address that part of the market (as you pointed out), rendering the addressable market even smaller in comparison to their previous position.
shmageggy 8y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Sasson https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Sasson > Steven Sasson invented the first self-contained digital camera at Eastman Kodak in 1975.
- simonh 8y ago
  Yep, but the CCD was made by Fairchild. The only significant value add that Kodak had to bring to the table - film - was absent. It's not as if CCDs weren't being used to capture digital images before Kodak. They didn't even invent the digital imaging technology in the device. All they did was package it in a portable system. I'm not trying to trash the achievement of constructing that device, it was a marvel of engineering, but I think it must have created a misconception in the company that they had a special competence in this area that they really didn't have. I remember Kodak supporters constantly turning to this as the reason why Kodak would succeed, while it was visibly failing. They did develop a CCD sensor business, but they divested themselves of it in 2011 as part of a strategy that "it would sell assets that are not central to its transformation to a profitable, sustainable digital company". https://www.dpreview.com/articles/4182673881/kodaknews https://www.dpreview.com/articles/4182673881/kodaknews
  - smileysteve 8y ago
    > They did develop a CCD sensor business, but they divested themselves of it in 2011 as part of a strategy that "it would sell assets that are not central to its transformation to a profitable, sustainable digital company". If they hadn't made market strides with a CCD by 2011; I'm pretty sure that means they missed the mark entirely. If they had beat Sony's digitization of Minolta; or figured out mirrorless first would have been there best out prior to 2011.

kemiller 8y ago

They were addicted to fat film profits and couldn’t read an exponential curve.

ghaff 8y ago
That's probably true but good luck when your primary revenue source falls off an utter cliff which is basically what happened with film sales. You basically have to build a new $20 billion company within a few years.
- kemiller 8y ago
  Oh yeah I get it. They were in a tough spot. But they still almost went out of their way, it felt like, to screw with the parts of their business that were trying to save them.
throwaway2048 8y ago
Kodak was larger than the entire digital camera industry currently is, by almost 3x, $31 billion[1] in 1993 dollars which is 31 billion in 54 billion in 2018 dollars[2]. The entire digital camera industry was worth about 18 billion in 2017[3] Even if they captured 100% of the market (which would have been basically completely impossible), it would have been a massive disaster for them as a company, and to the hundreds of thousands of people they employed in photo processing. [1] https://www.photosecrets.com/the-rise-and-fall-of-kodak https://www.photosecrets.com/the-rise-and-fall-of-kodak [2] http://www.in2013dollars.com/1993-dollars-in-2018?amount=31000000000 http://www.in2013dollars.com/1993-dollars-in-2018?amount=310... [3] https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/4514578/digital-camera-market-global-industry-trends https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/4514578/digital-c...
- jl6 8y ago
  Does that 18 billion include the smartphone industry? I think phones are the real successor of the mass-market element of Kodak’s business.
  - vkou 8y ago
    Pivoting from making film and cameras to making cellphones would have been like McDonalds pivoting into becoming a laptop manufacturer. Yes, cellphones contain a camera, but the similarities end there.
    - simias 8y ago
      You're talking from an industrial perspective and the parent is talking from a user perspective. You're both right. Smartphones replaced compact cameras for a huge portion of casual photographers but as you point out it's not like camera makers could easily pivot into making smartphones (some of them probably could have if they had anticipated the trend enough, but by the time the iphone came out it was probably already too late to catch up).
    - pdpi 8y ago
      The point is that, if that $18B number includes phones, Kodak wouldn’t even be able to address that part of the market (as you pointed out), rendering the addressable market even smaller in comparison to their previous position.

shmageggy 8y ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Sasson https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Sasson > Steven Sasson invented the first self-contained digital camera at Eastman Kodak in 1975.

simonh 8y ago
Yep, but the CCD was made by Fairchild. The only significant value add that Kodak had to bring to the table - film - was absent. It's not as if CCDs weren't being used to capture digital images before Kodak. They didn't even invent the digital imaging technology in the device. All they did was package it in a portable system. I'm not trying to trash the achievement of constructing that device, it was a marvel of engineering, but I think it must have created a misconception in the company that they had a special competence in this area that they really didn't have. I remember Kodak supporters constantly turning to this as the reason why Kodak would succeed, while it was visibly failing. They did develop a CCD sensor business, but they divested themselves of it in 2011 as part of a strategy that "it would sell assets that are not central to its transformation to a profitable, sustainable digital company". https://www.dpreview.com/articles/4182673881/kodaknews https://www.dpreview.com/articles/4182673881/kodaknews
- smileysteve 8y ago
  > They did develop a CCD sensor business, but they divested themselves of it in 2011 as part of a strategy that "it would sell assets that are not central to its transformation to a profitable, sustainable digital company". If they hadn't made market strides with a CCD by 2011; I'm pretty sure that means they missed the mark entirely. If they had beat Sony's digitization of Minolta; or figured out mirrorless first would have been there best out prior to 2011.