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A quick attempt to find costs for 4 degrees C found ~7% of GDP, which would be inline with the figures from my original post. Source (first result for "gdp glo
by kauffj 8y ago
A quick attempt to find costs for 4 degrees C found ~7% of GDP, which would be inline with the figures from my original post.
Source (first result for "gdp global warming 4 degree celsius"): https://phys.org/news/2018-08-trillion-lost-temperatures-degrees.html https://phys.org/news/2018-08-trillion-lost-temperatures-deg...
Do you have alternative numbers? 7% of GDP is a big hit, but it's not "end of civilization".
- thatcat 8y agoIs GDP a good metric of the planets net worth? I'd say biodiversity is a better one. If you include the opportunity cost of losing all the value bound in the genes of organisms that will go extinct before we can use it, for example, things look much worse. If you insist on GDP, then what will be the effect on the distribution of wealth? And decades of stagnant GDP's effect on investment in technology? Without constant growth many things will fall apart in our society.
- graeme 8y agoI don't think any economic models are reliable in the event of 4 degrees of warming. The system is far too complex to forecast with any precision. We can conclusively say it would be bad, but "how bad" can't be stated quantitatively. Only qualitatively, in terms of "X percent of land would be rendered uninhabitable" or "X% increase in crop failures". Those are numbers, of course and can be estimated better. I'm saying they can't be combined to a global gdp total. The system is too large, and there will be cascading effects. Some sort of war is also a likely result, and then all bets are off.