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Ben Hunt pointedly said in his recent article [0]: "With Saudi Arabia, the ubiquitous private information was that Saudi Arabia is a thug state and their Crown

Ben Hunt pointedly said in his recent article [0]: "With Saudi Arabia, the ubiquitous private information was that Saudi Arabia is a thug state and their Crown Prince MBS is a wannabe Bond villain. But no one acted AS IF they knew this until a Missionary event – in this case Turkey’s very public denunciations of the Saudi government’s murder of Jamal Khashoggi – turned that private information into common knowledge, something that now everyone knows that everyone knows." He coined the term >common knowledge game< [1] as the "information, public or private, that everyone believes is shared by everyone else". In the case of MBS, or Saudi Arabia specifically, everybody (privately) already had the information that this is a brutal regime. But they acted as if no one knew this. Until the tragic and brutal death of an exiled journalist in a consulate and the public denunciation by Turkey. Now it has become common knowledge and actions must be taken accordingly. [0] https://www.epsilontheory.com/saudi-arabia-and-the-common-knowledge-game/ https://www.epsilontheory.com/saudi-arabia-and-the-common-kn... [1] https://www.epsilontheory.com/sheep-logic/ https://www.epsilontheory.com/sheep-logic/

barrkel 8y ago
It was ubiquitous information, but it lacked relatability, strategy and focus. Erdogan has been playing this one very well. The chap is relatable - an American resident, writing for a US newspaper, critiquing a government, just the kind of thing westerners like to venerate in their cultural products. Erdogan has drip-fed the media with information. Since it's so lurid, each extra dose gets more headlines - it's concentrated, potent stuff. And he's kept Saudi guessing - threatening that if they don't come out with the truth, he'll release the details. He'd lose all leverage if he actually did release everything, but the strategy works very well. Everybody knows MBS almost certainly ordered this clumsy attack in a very naive way. But Erdogan has used the unknowns of the information, and gradual disclosure, as a lever to make Saudi replace their lies repeatedly over time, eating away at their credibility. By keeping western media on the boil, he encourages western politicians to say that Saudi isn't explaining enough. It's been very interesting to watch, a master class. (It's not the common knowledge, or the crystalized idea that everybody knows that everybody knows. That's not right at all. It's political pressure being maintained by someone with leverage, a steady hand on that leverage, and a strategy to move things. The lever is joined up: leaks -> western media -> western politicians -> Saudi. Without the continuous pressure, this would all blow over because democratic citizens have pretty short memories most of the time.)
kilotaras 8y ago
> He coined the term >common knowledge game< as the "information, public or private, that everyone believes is shared by everyone else". Nitpicking here, but "common knowledge" with such definition goes back to late 60s at least [1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_knowledge_(logic) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_knowledge_(logic)
buboard 8y ago
I don' t think "everyone had that information". I assumed that Saudis would kill political enemies who at least committed certain acts with consequences beforehand, not that they would kill and wrap the body of a prominent person into pieces within hours. I thought the russians had monopoly on remotely killing political enemies like that. What was plausible as a hypothesis, but unproven, is now very real, and it has now placed saudi in the same bucket as putin's russia in the mind of "public opinion".

barrkel 8y ago

It was ubiquitous information, but it lacked relatability, strategy and focus. Erdogan has been playing this one very well. The chap is relatable - an American resident, writing for a US newspaper, critiquing a government, just the kind of thing westerners like to venerate in their cultural products. Erdogan has drip-fed the media with information. Since it's so lurid, each extra dose gets more headlines - it's concentrated, potent stuff. And he's kept Saudi guessing - threatening that if they don't come out with the truth, he'll release the details. He'd lose all leverage if he actually did release everything, but the strategy works very well. Everybody knows MBS almost certainly ordered this clumsy attack in a very naive way. But Erdogan has used the unknowns of the information, and gradual disclosure, as a lever to make Saudi replace their lies repeatedly over time, eating away at their credibility. By keeping western media on the boil, he encourages western politicians to say that Saudi isn't explaining enough. It's been very interesting to watch, a master class. (It's not the common knowledge, or the crystalized idea that everybody knows that everybody knows. That's not right at all. It's political pressure being maintained by someone with leverage, a steady hand on that leverage, and a strategy to move things. The lever is joined up: leaks -> western media -> western politicians -> Saudi. Without the continuous pressure, this would all blow over because democratic citizens have pretty short memories most of the time.)

kilotaras 8y ago

> He coined the term >common knowledge game< as the "information, public or private, that everyone believes is shared by everyone else". Nitpicking here, but "common knowledge" with such definition goes back to late 60s at least [1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_knowledge_(logic) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_knowledge_(logic)

buboard 8y ago

I don' t think "everyone had that information". I assumed that Saudis would kill political enemies who at least committed certain acts with consequences beforehand, not that they would kill and wrap the body of a prominent person into pieces within hours. I thought the russians had monopoly on remotely killing political enemies like that. What was plausible as a hypothesis, but unproven, is now very real, and it has now placed saudi in the same bucket as putin's russia in the mind of "public opinion".