4 ms·
The most likely outcome, in my opinion, is a no deal Brexit. That has been the most likely outcome for several months. There has only been the illusion of prog
by jf- 8y ago
The most likely outcome, in my opinion, is a no deal Brexit. That has been the most likely outcome for several months.
There has only been the illusion of progress in the talks. Really things are in largely the same state they’ve been in since January.
The Northern Ireland border issue has not been solved, because it is effectively impossible to solve. The EU wants Northern Ireland to remain in the customs union to prevent a border on the island of Ireland, however the UK conservative government depend on the DUP, who are opposed, for support and will not agree. The EU will not consider any deal that introduces a border. There is no compromise position here, either one side backs down or there is no deal.
Also the conservatives have floated the idea of a “Canada+++” free trade deal, which to my knowledge has never been offered by the EU, as it would include services and thus be too close to the single market, rendering it meaningless. Even if the NI border issue were to disappear overnight, the substance of a deal still appears to be unagreed.
The deadline of March next year is fast approaching and any extension to the current negotiation period will need to be passed by the EU. If it comes to that, some EU government will likely derail the extension process and it won’t happen. Then everyone will shout “But we couldn’t possibly have seen this coming!”, even though you could see it months ago, as the UK hurtles towards no deal Brexit with no means of stopping.
- mpweiher 8y ago> The EU wants Northern Ireland to remain in the customs union to prevent a border on the island of Ireland, Ireland and Northern Ireland desperately want to prevent a hard border in order to maintain the hard-won peace and prevent the return of the bloodshed that drenched the island (and the rest of the UK). Ireland being in the EU, the EU has put its weight behind Ireland. That's how amplification of international clout/power through shared institution works. In fact, the UK government also claims to want to prevent a hard border, yet has provided no way of actually doing so except "magically it won't be there", and the only practical solution (discounting magic) is for NI to remain in the CU and SM. That has been clear from the start.
- dorchadas 8y agoThe problem is the DUP. May requires their support in Parliament, and I'm not entirely sure what the DUP wants is what's best to avoid reigniting the Troubles. I know my friends in both Ireland and Northern Ireland (Protestant and Catholic) were very much of the opinion that May was making a deal with the devil, and that it wasn't going to be good for the Good Friday Agreement.
- Piskvorrr 8y agoGiven the religious connotations, my hat is off to you for an excellent pun! (Even though the actual circumstances are dire.)
- empath75 8y agoI don’t understand why they don’t just have a second referendum on brexit as it’s actually occurring rather than the load of bullshit that was sold to the electorate.