6 ms·

UK firms 'near point of no return'

70 points by okket 8y ago

raverbashing 8y ago
Well, what did they expect? This is sounding ever more like the Quebec referendum, they didn't separate in the end, but the damage was done. I'm in favour of letting them eat their cake and enjoy a complete separation.
- yostrovs 8y ago
  If there wouldn't be the Northern Ireland/Ireland border, an intractable problem, this would be over long ago.
  - SideburnsOfDoom 8y ago
    Are you saying that the Irish border is the only intractable problem in brexit? I don't think that's actually true.
    - vidarh 8y ago
      But it's the only part of the problem where the "wrong" solution has a real risk of reigniting armed conflict.
    - nailer 8y ago
      I don't think they are, but it's obviously the biggest. EU want a sea border keeping RoI/NI open, UK won't accept the break up of their union.
      - Piskvorrr 8y ago
        In other words, UK wants to keep their union, EU wants to keep their union, nobody bothers to ask the Irish, as usual.
        dorchadas 8y ago
        Which is hilarious, as NI voted 'Remain'. However, I'm still not sure if it's time for a United Ireland. Still a lot of animosity between the sides.
        Piskvorrr 8y ago
        I don't think there's any good solution: even the current one took over a decade to negotiate. Any territorial changes are unlikely to remain nonviolent - united Ireland, hard border, independent NI, it's all very explosive.
        SideburnsOfDoom 8y ago
        > EU wants to keep their union, nobody bothers to ask the Irish I don't think so, no. The Republic of Ireland is the EU in this case. Or part of it, in agreement and solidarity with the other parts. There are plenty of statements from the ROI's political leaders to this effect.
    - jimnotgym 8y ago
      No, but it is a big issue that involves messing with an agreement (the Good Friday Agreement) put in place to stop a bloody conflict. An agreement that is co-guaranteed by the USA and... the EU!
    - Piskvorrr 8y ago
      There's plenty of hard problems to go around, but this one is definitely incompatible with any peaceful brexit. Brace yourselves, Troubles 2.0 are coming.
  - raverbashing 8y ago
    True, and it's much more complicated than it looks from the outside (or even from the rest of the UK)
  - pknight 8y ago
    Actually, no, companies still would be facing sudden & unwanted barriers and there would still be the unresolved issue of whether the UK would diverge from the Single Market or not. It would still have the potential to wreck several sectors, with companies being forced to trigger their contingency plans. Even just taking the IT industry, with the UK slated to leave the Digital version of the Single Market while repelling talent, it is a disaster by design.
    - yostrovs 8y ago
      Brexit would certainly be done by now without the border issue. Maybe painfully or imperfectly, but intractable problems don't even have painful solutions.
    - SideburnsOfDoom 8y ago
      Ireland isn't even the only border issue to Brexit. There's also Gibraltar.
- Lio 8y ago
  Who’s “they” in this scenario? I know it’s easy to pretend that Brexit got a massive majority but really it didn’t. It was just 52-48%. A large number of us didn’t vote for it and still don’t want Brrexit.
  - raverbashing 8y ago
    The leavers, who think untangling a web of commercial, legal and financial connections (which a lot of them depend on - I can't wait to see the face of the farmers when their EU subsidies stop coming) is as easy as unplugging their kettle.
    - BozeWolf 8y ago
      Do not be so so harsh on the people who wanted the brexit. They have made a mistake, probably. Some of them realize that. As a pro eu person from nl(if that even exists) i would prefer not to give uk a hard time to come back on their decision. And even íf they really quit: we still have to work together. It is in interest of all of us to have the uk with us. It is just impossible to negotiate for brexit and cherry pick all the good parts of the eu, while not doing something in return. They will end up with a eu type of deal, with a few minor things stripped off. Or a hard brexit, which may not even happen. It is a shitty situation, which starts to affect my life as well. I have some stocks on a company “degiro” which has its license in the uk. This is a problem because i am unsure what is going to happen. I moved my investments to a broker with dutch bank accounts and licenses.
      - raverbashing 8y ago
        Fair enough > They will end up with a eu, with a few minor things stripped off. Maybe. They had that already
      - matthewmacleod 8y ago
        That's the ideal outcome. The problem is that rhetoric in the UK has shifted away from "Leave the EU in a structured manner with most of the bits intact" to "full-scale immediate departure with no planning for the future". That's going to be a medium-term disaster. Honestly the problem isn't Brexit itself. I don't agree with that policy, but it's possible to see how it could be executed in a constructive and honest fashion. If we were able to accept that there are benefits to EU membership, but that we were willing to give those up in exchange for theoretically greater sovereignty, the situation would be better. If we were working towards a scenario that was minimally damaging, while importantly being honest about the tradeoffs, then the country would make some progress. Instead we have an absolute catastrophe of untruth circulating. Large parts of the party of government appear to be aiming for a no-deal, cliff-edge event, claiming that everything will be fine. A huge share of the population seem to think that "no deal" means "status quo" instead of "immediate large-scale problems". I don't know how we deal with that. We're genuinely in the time of post-facts, post-truth politics, and I don't know that we currently have the tools to fix that.
- frabbit 8y ago
  What damage was done to Quebec? Sure, a bunch of francophobic anglos fled to Ontario, but Quebec remains a vibrant society with a semi-functioning healthcare system and a decent univeristy system. Now, the election of the CAQ last mont: _that_ is likely to cause some damage if they succeed in enacting their stale neo-liberal policies and fail to react to the CLIMATE CHANGE CRISIS.
  - raverbashing 8y ago
    Toronto became the effective "capital" of Canada, in place of Montreal (Even the Bank of Montreal moved to Toronto) Not everyone who left QC is a francophobic, and while I do understand some of the French side's worries, things like Loi 101 are sometimes "too much" (like requiring board games to be in French)
    - JeanMarcS 8y ago
      As a French, it was strange to see Happy Meals called Joyeux festin in Montreal, and other stuff like that. In France, we also got a law (Loi Toubon) saying you must translate anything from another language to French, for exemple in ads (most propably for preventing misunderstanding). But you can still have slogan in english (or another language).
    - frabbit 8y ago
      Looking at the impact of the City of London on Greater London, or the finacial services sector on Dublin or Silicon Valley on Palo Alto it seems to me that the flight of major, centralized economic powers (with the ability to distort democracy) is a net win for most locations. Quebec continues to do well despite the relocation of a few businesses.
switch007 8y ago
The UK is an odd place at the moment. Brexit is almost too toxic to bring up in discussion: I think it's safer to discuss religion. I personally feel like a passenger on a train that has a 50/50 chance of derailing. I didn't choose to get on this train, and my time remaining to get off is running out very quickly. But I can't just get off because I have lots and lots of baggage. I can't hear the screaming in the driver's cab. Maybe there is no driver. All the posh people in 1st class keep going in to the cab to argue and decide my fate. All the other passengers are just drinking tea and enjoying the views of ye olde England.
- tvanantwerp 8y ago
  I'd say I'm riding a very similar train in America, if only we invested in such things.
  - awakeasleep 8y ago
    It can certainly feel like that, but after looking into Brexit, I think we (USA) have things MUCH better. As much as Trump is loose cannon, our trade was based on the USA being the 'importer of last resort' and many of the changes we're making are not THAT extreme compared to history, or compared to other developed nation's existing rules. Plus we are the ones choosing to make these changes. With Brexit, GB has failed to make any sort of deal or even seemingly understand their negotiating position. The 'deal' they're eventually going to receive is 'having EU non-member rules forced upon them'. Furthermore, even if the USA did the same thing and pulled out of all treaties instantaneously with no forethought or negotiation, we're a big enough economy that other countries would be forced to negotiate. Check out the comparison of US and UK economies. http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/compare/United-Kingdom/United-States/Economy http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/compare/United-King...
    - NeedMoreTea 8y ago
      The diplomats and Foreign Office well understood the negotiating position, and probable consequences. Which is why a selection of senior figures have resigned over the last two years. Just one example: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38498839 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38498839 Britain appears to have gone with the intent of negotiating by political dogma.
mmastrac 8y ago
Brexit always struck me as a frustrated response that would have been more valuable symbolically than something to actually follow through on. If they could just reframe it as "sure people are frustrated, let's try to address that" it would be far more valuable than attempting to leave. The whole last few years remind me of an 80s movie where a teen threatens to run away and the parents let them go through the motions before they realize how screwed they'll be on their own.
- vidanay 8y ago
  "Brexit", tonight on the Hallmark Channel.
- meguest 8y ago
  One of the issues is the federalisation of the European Union. I don't know what could be done to address that though, it's not something that can be undone I would have thought without huge political and economic consequences.
  - tomp 8y ago
    Although IMO it’s not possible to have a monetary union without some kind of federal law. In addition, EU isn’t poised to compete with other world’s superpowers unless it gets its shit together (e.g. EU countries competing amongst each other to offer lowest corporate tax etc.).
    - luch 8y ago
      Although tax "dumping" is infuriating, it's not the major problem within the EU (look at Delaware tax code vs the rest of the states, and USA is doing fine economically speaking). The real issue for the EU is the lack of financial and political solidarity. You can bankrupt a EU country and expect the others to pick up the tab, even if there nothing written down in the EU constitution saying so. The Syrian migration issue is a glaring example of a lack of political collaboration. EU countries needs to acknowledge the fact they are actually tightly bounded to the union and make changes in the way the EU works to reflect that situation.
jimnotgym 8y ago
I agree that this is crippling the UK and will for some time yet. However, I come to HN to get away from it.
- throwaway8689 8y ago
  This submission has been flagged. Perhaps because it's not really pertinent to HN?
claydavisss 8y ago
The Brits will be fine. Are we to believe that the loss of trade with economic titans like Italy are the lynchpins of Britain's demise? That this comes from the BBC is telling...the last gasp of the neoliberal media establishment trying to preserve its well-crafted model of trans-national feudalism. Your Twitter feed is not representative of the world. Working class people understand neoliberals are not liberals. Maybe the Stay plutocrats can team up with their friends on the coasts in the USA and buy themselves a nice island like Madagascar where everyone can finally be disarmed and forced to agree with their Barons. Teslas for everyone, but we'll be monitoring your Twitter feed.... keep downvoting, it's what your manager wants
- mattkevan 8y ago
  Is this satire?
  - claydavisss 8y ago
    As much a satire as the notion that SF is a liberal city, yes
  - coldtea 8y ago
    No, it's an opinion. But people in echo chambers usually can't tell between the two, after all everybody must agree with them, because they're the good people on the right side of history.
    - deleted 8y ago
      [deleted]
    - matthewmacleod 8y ago
      Sometimes, though, opinion is worthless enough to be indistinguishable from satire. I am personally strongly opposed to the idea of the UK leaving the EU. That doesn't mean that I'm incapable of reading, processing and disagreeing with constructive arguments in support of a viewpoint I don't hold. But when that conversation devolves to petty, objectively nonsensical catchphrases like "neoliberal media establishment" then it's reasonable to question whether or not it's even possible to engage in constructive discussion.
kmlx 8y ago
every crisis is an opportunity if you know how to exploit it.
DrNuke 8y ago
The hostile behaviour introjected by common, good-natured people towards outsiders of any sort is more frightening, though. It is actually self-preservation in this new dystopian environment but it seems mind poisoning or zombification to the receiving parties of that hostility.
interfixus 8y ago
The sky is falling! The UK may be headed for disaster status as seen in basket cases like Switzerland, Norway, Iceland. Except of course that's not going to happen. Nobody's going to leave anything after all, as per a well-known line from a well-known Eagles song, about the feasibility of check-out.
DanielBMarkham 8y ago
I have absolutely no opinion on Brexit. It would be amazing to me beyond rational belief if the first attempt at a European government wasn't severely flawed. Maybe it's great, maybe it's awful, but to nail the first time? Probably not. Having said that, I have no clue about when you should jump ship or hang on. Additionally, these are not the issues of my country. So even if I had an opinion, I'd just shut up about it. With that prefix, the Brexit discussion is about as whacked as any public discussion that I've witnessed online. You can see from the HN comments that there's a ton of emotion around this thing. I don't think it belongs on HN. And I've been deleting political leaders as fast as they appear in my Twitter feed telling me to feel one way or another about it. I love talking with fellow nerds about things that are contentious that we can reach some agreement on, even if it's just to agree to disagree. This doesn't look like one of those things. This looks like something that no matter what you say, people are going to be upset about it.
- DrNuke 8y ago
  Much appreciated, thanks, but point is we do not live in a bubble and I am not sure Nerdistan would be a nicer country to live.
  - DanielBMarkham 8y ago
    I agree. That's why it's important to talk about....the things we can talk about. A friend of mine is visiting Europe. As a yank, he also doesn't have a strong opinion. His first night there, he was asked about Brexit. He said something like "I don't know. Why not leave if you want to?" thinking that if people had voted for it, even the people against it would see how it looked from far away. They did not. Instead he lost some friends that night, and it completely blindsided him. Nobody wants to live in a bubble, but if the group is incapable of reasonable discussion, call it out. Let's move on. Just saying it's important isn't going to change the emotional dynamics. In fact, it'll probably just make them worse. The reason people can't discuss it reasonably is because they think it's so bloody important.
jf- 8y ago
The most likely outcome, in my opinion, is a no deal Brexit. That has been the most likely outcome for several months. There has only been the illusion of progress in the talks. Really things are in largely the same state they’ve been in since January. The Northern Ireland border issue has not been solved, because it is effectively impossible to solve. The EU wants Northern Ireland to remain in the customs union to prevent a border on the island of Ireland, however the UK conservative government depend on the DUP, who are opposed, for support and will not agree. The EU will not consider any deal that introduces a border. There is no compromise position here, either one side backs down or there is no deal. Also the conservatives have floated the idea of a “Canada+++” free trade deal, which to my knowledge has never been offered by the EU, as it would include services and thus be too close to the single market, rendering it meaningless. Even if the NI border issue were to disappear overnight, the substance of a deal still appears to be unagreed. The deadline of March next year is fast approaching and any extension to the current negotiation period will need to be passed by the EU. If it comes to that, some EU government will likely derail the extension process and it won’t happen. Then everyone will shout “But we couldn’t possibly have seen this coming!”, even though you could see it months ago, as the UK hurtles towards no deal Brexit with no means of stopping.
- mpweiher 8y ago
  > The EU wants Northern Ireland to remain in the customs union to prevent a border on the island of Ireland, Ireland and Northern Ireland desperately want to prevent a hard border in order to maintain the hard-won peace and prevent the return of the bloodshed that drenched the island (and the rest of the UK). Ireland being in the EU, the EU has put its weight behind Ireland. That's how amplification of international clout/power through shared institution works. In fact, the UK government also claims to want to prevent a hard border, yet has provided no way of actually doing so except "magically it won't be there", and the only practical solution (discounting magic) is for NI to remain in the CU and SM. That has been clear from the start.
  - dorchadas 8y ago
    The problem is the DUP. May requires their support in Parliament, and I'm not entirely sure what the DUP wants is what's best to avoid reigniting the Troubles. I know my friends in both Ireland and Northern Ireland (Protestant and Catholic) were very much of the opinion that May was making a deal with the devil, and that it wasn't going to be good for the Good Friday Agreement.
coldtea 8y ago
It's hard to make someone on HN understand why someone would ever want a Brexit. As the 10%-ers, their livelihood depends on them not understanding it - and their social circles can only consider the people who do unwashed masses and scum.
- emerged 8y ago
  It's a bizarre thing, this and the polarized US, as someone who's lived back and forth between the Midwest and California for decades. Both perspectives have genuine value, but both have this ridiculous sense that they hold the Truth.
  - dorchadas 8y ago
    And neither of them are likely to look at long term consequences. Well, one side is, but they often don't factor the other group into their long term consequence outlook, whereas I'm convinced the one side doesn't think of anything long-term. I'm a solidly progressive person teaching in solidly Trump country (like, my state was basically called before the election was even over), and that's just been my experience. But, I went to school in a very progressive school, and it was the same -- they never considered rural or Blue Collar America in their long-term consequence planning, apart from "oh, we can give them this to support them, etc." Wasn't much discussion on how it would affect them individually and, even if they were able to live comfortably, how it would affect them culturally (having a job and providing for your family is what makes you a man, etc)
    - coldtea 8y ago
      >they never considered rural or Blue Collar America in their long-term consequence planning Yes, from all I've read and seen it's a case of "millions out of jobs, devastated? tough luck, they need to embrace change, the future's is for those that adapt, etc..." -- all the while those saying it benefit from the current economy and so have no experience whatsoever with "adapting" themselves (and if they were on the other end would be crying like little babies).
bduerst 8y ago
Why was this flagged?
- lorenzhs 8y ago
  Probably because the comments are a dumpster fire and triggered the flame-war detector.
  - jf- 8y ago
    They don’t look like much of a dumpster fire to me.
  - dang 8y ago
    No, that mechanism is orthogonal to flagging.
- dang 8y ago
  Users clicked 'flag'.
joejerryronnie 8y ago
The day after Brexit will be like Neo waking up from the Matrix. Yes, there will be pain and things may not seem quite as bright as they did under the yoke of the EU - but they will finally be free of the oppressive regime of Germany, France, and the EU bureaucrats. The UK should have the chance to drive their own destiny. The EU was a great and prosperous (for some) experiment but it has outlived its usefulness for all but the elites desperately clinging to power. It's only a matter of time until another major country exits, then the balkans, then the south. The UK should rip the band-aid off now and focus on their core strengths of Finance and Tech, work to build out domestic manufacturing and agriculture capabilities, and establish trade agreements with key partners. The UK will come out stronger and more globally competitive in the end.
- twtw 8y ago
  > oppressive regime of Germany, France, and the EU bureaucrats. I'd like to understand what you are talking about. Could you give some more details on this "oppressive regime?"
  - joejerryronnie 8y ago
    It's pretty clear that Merkel and Macron essentially dictate EU policy to all other member nations and the EU Commissioners make broad, sweeping policies from on high that are driven as much by personal ambition as by the needs of the EU (e.g. Vestager's blatant attack on US tech).
- Piskvorrr 8y ago
  Perhaps w/o Scotland though. After all, if the British may leave the oppressive yoke of Brussels, doesn't the same hold true of Scottish leaving the oppressive yoke of London? "But...but...but...how would they DARE!!! Of course they mayn't!", I keep hearing from the English. "But isn't the situation symmetric? Of course we may!", I keep hearing from the Scots.
  - joejerryronnie 8y ago
    I support Scottish independence as well.

70 points by okket 8y ago

Well, what did they expect? This is sounding ever more like the Quebec referendum, they didn't separate in the end, but the damage was done. I'm in favour of letting them eat their cake and enjoy a complete separation.

yostrovs 8y ago
If there wouldn't be the Northern Ireland/Ireland border, an intractable problem, this would be over long ago.
- SideburnsOfDoom 8y ago
  Are you saying that the Irish border is the only intractable problem in brexit? I don't think that's actually true.
  - vidarh 8y ago
    But it's the only part of the problem where the "wrong" solution has a real risk of reigniting armed conflict.
  - nailer 8y ago
    I don't think they are, but it's obviously the biggest. EU want a sea border keeping RoI/NI open, UK won't accept the break up of their union.
    - Piskvorrr 8y ago
      In other words, UK wants to keep their union, EU wants to keep their union, nobody bothers to ask the Irish, as usual.
      - dorchadas 8y ago
        Which is hilarious, as NI voted 'Remain'. However, I'm still not sure if it's time for a United Ireland. Still a lot of animosity between the sides.
        Piskvorrr 8y ago
        I don't think there's any good solution: even the current one took over a decade to negotiate. Any territorial changes are unlikely to remain nonviolent - united Ireland, hard border, independent NI, it's all very explosive.
      - SideburnsOfDoom 8y ago
        > EU wants to keep their union, nobody bothers to ask the Irish I don't think so, no. The Republic of Ireland is the EU in this case. Or part of it, in agreement and solidarity with the other parts. There are plenty of statements from the ROI's political leaders to this effect.
  - jimnotgym 8y ago
    No, but it is a big issue that involves messing with an agreement (the Good Friday Agreement) put in place to stop a bloody conflict. An agreement that is co-guaranteed by the USA and... the EU!
  - Piskvorrr 8y ago
    There's plenty of hard problems to go around, but this one is definitely incompatible with any peaceful brexit. Brace yourselves, Troubles 2.0 are coming.
- raverbashing 8y ago
  True, and it's much more complicated than it looks from the outside (or even from the rest of the UK)
- pknight 8y ago
  Actually, no, companies still would be facing sudden & unwanted barriers and there would still be the unresolved issue of whether the UK would diverge from the Single Market or not. It would still have the potential to wreck several sectors, with companies being forced to trigger their contingency plans. Even just taking the IT industry, with the UK slated to leave the Digital version of the Single Market while repelling talent, it is a disaster by design.
  - yostrovs 8y ago
    Brexit would certainly be done by now without the border issue. Maybe painfully or imperfectly, but intractable problems don't even have painful solutions.
  - SideburnsOfDoom 8y ago
    Ireland isn't even the only border issue to Brexit. There's also Gibraltar.
Lio 8y ago
Who’s “they” in this scenario? I know it’s easy to pretend that Brexit got a massive majority but really it didn’t. It was just 52-48%. A large number of us didn’t vote for it and still don’t want Brrexit.
- raverbashing 8y ago
  The leavers, who think untangling a web of commercial, legal and financial connections (which a lot of them depend on - I can't wait to see the face of the farmers when their EU subsidies stop coming) is as easy as unplugging their kettle.
  - BozeWolf 8y ago
    Do not be so so harsh on the people who wanted the brexit. They have made a mistake, probably. Some of them realize that. As a pro eu person from nl(if that even exists) i would prefer not to give uk a hard time to come back on their decision. And even íf they really quit: we still have to work together. It is in interest of all of us to have the uk with us. It is just impossible to negotiate for brexit and cherry pick all the good parts of the eu, while not doing something in return. They will end up with a eu type of deal, with a few minor things stripped off. Or a hard brexit, which may not even happen. It is a shitty situation, which starts to affect my life as well. I have some stocks on a company “degiro” which has its license in the uk. This is a problem because i am unsure what is going to happen. I moved my investments to a broker with dutch bank accounts and licenses.
    - raverbashing 8y ago
      Fair enough > They will end up with a eu, with a few minor things stripped off. Maybe. They had that already
    - matthewmacleod 8y ago
      That's the ideal outcome. The problem is that rhetoric in the UK has shifted away from "Leave the EU in a structured manner with most of the bits intact" to "full-scale immediate departure with no planning for the future". That's going to be a medium-term disaster. Honestly the problem isn't Brexit itself. I don't agree with that policy, but it's possible to see how it could be executed in a constructive and honest fashion. If we were able to accept that there are benefits to EU membership, but that we were willing to give those up in exchange for theoretically greater sovereignty, the situation would be better. If we were working towards a scenario that was minimally damaging, while importantly being honest about the tradeoffs, then the country would make some progress. Instead we have an absolute catastrophe of untruth circulating. Large parts of the party of government appear to be aiming for a no-deal, cliff-edge event, claiming that everything will be fine. A huge share of the population seem to think that "no deal" means "status quo" instead of "immediate large-scale problems". I don't know how we deal with that. We're genuinely in the time of post-facts, post-truth politics, and I don't know that we currently have the tools to fix that.
frabbit 8y ago
What damage was done to Quebec? Sure, a bunch of francophobic anglos fled to Ontario, but Quebec remains a vibrant society with a semi-functioning healthcare system and a decent univeristy system. Now, the election of the CAQ last mont: _that_ is likely to cause some damage if they succeed in enacting their stale neo-liberal policies and fail to react to the CLIMATE CHANGE CRISIS.
- raverbashing 8y ago
  Toronto became the effective "capital" of Canada, in place of Montreal (Even the Bank of Montreal moved to Toronto) Not everyone who left QC is a francophobic, and while I do understand some of the French side's worries, things like Loi 101 are sometimes "too much" (like requiring board games to be in French)
  - JeanMarcS 8y ago
    As a French, it was strange to see Happy Meals called Joyeux festin in Montreal, and other stuff like that. In France, we also got a law (Loi Toubon) saying you must translate anything from another language to French, for exemple in ads (most propably for preventing misunderstanding). But you can still have slogan in english (or another language).
  - frabbit 8y ago
    Looking at the impact of the City of London on Greater London, or the finacial services sector on Dublin or Silicon Valley on Palo Alto it seems to me that the flight of major, centralized economic powers (with the ability to distort democracy) is a net win for most locations. Quebec continues to do well despite the relocation of a few businesses.

switch007 8y ago

The UK is an odd place at the moment. Brexit is almost too toxic to bring up in discussion: I think it's safer to discuss religion. I personally feel like a passenger on a train that has a 50/50 chance of derailing. I didn't choose to get on this train, and my time remaining to get off is running out very quickly. But I can't just get off because I have lots and lots of baggage. I can't hear the screaming in the driver's cab. Maybe there is no driver. All the posh people in 1st class keep going in to the cab to argue and decide my fate. All the other passengers are just drinking tea and enjoying the views of ye olde England.

tvanantwerp 8y ago
I'd say I'm riding a very similar train in America, if only we invested in such things.
- awakeasleep 8y ago
  It can certainly feel like that, but after looking into Brexit, I think we (USA) have things MUCH better. As much as Trump is loose cannon, our trade was based on the USA being the 'importer of last resort' and many of the changes we're making are not THAT extreme compared to history, or compared to other developed nation's existing rules. Plus we are the ones choosing to make these changes. With Brexit, GB has failed to make any sort of deal or even seemingly understand their negotiating position. The 'deal' they're eventually going to receive is 'having EU non-member rules forced upon them'. Furthermore, even if the USA did the same thing and pulled out of all treaties instantaneously with no forethought or negotiation, we're a big enough economy that other countries would be forced to negotiate. Check out the comparison of US and UK economies. http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/compare/United-Kingdom/United-States/Economy http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/compare/United-King...
  - NeedMoreTea 8y ago
    The diplomats and Foreign Office well understood the negotiating position, and probable consequences. Which is why a selection of senior figures have resigned over the last two years. Just one example: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38498839 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38498839 Britain appears to have gone with the intent of negotiating by political dogma.

mmastrac 8y ago

Brexit always struck me as a frustrated response that would have been more valuable symbolically than something to actually follow through on. If they could just reframe it as "sure people are frustrated, let's try to address that" it would be far more valuable than attempting to leave. The whole last few years remind me of an 80s movie where a teen threatens to run away and the parents let them go through the motions before they realize how screwed they'll be on their own.

vidanay 8y ago
"Brexit", tonight on the Hallmark Channel.
meguest 8y ago
One of the issues is the federalisation of the European Union. I don't know what could be done to address that though, it's not something that can be undone I would have thought without huge political and economic consequences.
- tomp 8y ago
  Although IMO it’s not possible to have a monetary union without some kind of federal law. In addition, EU isn’t poised to compete with other world’s superpowers unless it gets its shit together (e.g. EU countries competing amongst each other to offer lowest corporate tax etc.).
  - luch 8y ago
    Although tax "dumping" is infuriating, it's not the major problem within the EU (look at Delaware tax code vs the rest of the states, and USA is doing fine economically speaking). The real issue for the EU is the lack of financial and political solidarity. You can bankrupt a EU country and expect the others to pick up the tab, even if there nothing written down in the EU constitution saying so. The Syrian migration issue is a glaring example of a lack of political collaboration. EU countries needs to acknowledge the fact they are actually tightly bounded to the union and make changes in the way the EU works to reflect that situation.

jimnotgym 8y ago

I agree that this is crippling the UK and will for some time yet. However, I come to HN to get away from it.

throwaway8689 8y ago
This submission has been flagged. Perhaps because it's not really pertinent to HN?

claydavisss 8y ago

The Brits will be fine. Are we to believe that the loss of trade with economic titans like Italy are the lynchpins of Britain's demise? That this comes from the BBC is telling...the last gasp of the neoliberal media establishment trying to preserve its well-crafted model of trans-national feudalism. Your Twitter feed is not representative of the world. Working class people understand neoliberals are not liberals. Maybe the Stay plutocrats can team up with their friends on the coasts in the USA and buy themselves a nice island like Madagascar where everyone can finally be disarmed and forced to agree with their Barons. Teslas for everyone, but we'll be monitoring your Twitter feed.... keep downvoting, it's what your manager wants

mattkevan 8y ago
Is this satire?
- claydavisss 8y ago
  As much a satire as the notion that SF is a liberal city, yes
- coldtea 8y ago
  No, it's an opinion. But people in echo chambers usually can't tell between the two, after all everybody must agree with them, because they're the good people on the right side of history.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
  - matthewmacleod 8y ago
    Sometimes, though, opinion is worthless enough to be indistinguishable from satire. I am personally strongly opposed to the idea of the UK leaving the EU. That doesn't mean that I'm incapable of reading, processing and disagreeing with constructive arguments in support of a viewpoint I don't hold. But when that conversation devolves to petty, objectively nonsensical catchphrases like "neoliberal media establishment" then it's reasonable to question whether or not it's even possible to engage in constructive discussion.

kmlx 8y ago

every crisis is an opportunity if you know how to exploit it.

DrNuke 8y ago

The hostile behaviour introjected by common, good-natured people towards outsiders of any sort is more frightening, though. It is actually self-preservation in this new dystopian environment but it seems mind poisoning or zombification to the receiving parties of that hostility.

interfixus 8y ago

The sky is falling! The UK may be headed for disaster status as seen in basket cases like Switzerland, Norway, Iceland. Except of course that's not going to happen. Nobody's going to leave anything after all, as per a well-known line from a well-known Eagles song, about the feasibility of check-out.

DanielBMarkham 8y ago

I have absolutely no opinion on Brexit. It would be amazing to me beyond rational belief if the first attempt at a European government wasn't severely flawed. Maybe it's great, maybe it's awful, but to nail the first time? Probably not. Having said that, I have no clue about when you should jump ship or hang on. Additionally, these are not the issues of my country. So even if I had an opinion, I'd just shut up about it. With that prefix, the Brexit discussion is about as whacked as any public discussion that I've witnessed online. You can see from the HN comments that there's a ton of emotion around this thing. I don't think it belongs on HN. And I've been deleting political leaders as fast as they appear in my Twitter feed telling me to feel one way or another about it. I love talking with fellow nerds about things that are contentious that we can reach some agreement on, even if it's just to agree to disagree. This doesn't look like one of those things. This looks like something that no matter what you say, people are going to be upset about it.

DrNuke 8y ago
Much appreciated, thanks, but point is we do not live in a bubble and I am not sure Nerdistan would be a nicer country to live.
- DanielBMarkham 8y ago
  I agree. That's why it's important to talk about....the things we can talk about. A friend of mine is visiting Europe. As a yank, he also doesn't have a strong opinion. His first night there, he was asked about Brexit. He said something like "I don't know. Why not leave if you want to?" thinking that if people had voted for it, even the people against it would see how it looked from far away. They did not. Instead he lost some friends that night, and it completely blindsided him. Nobody wants to live in a bubble, but if the group is incapable of reasonable discussion, call it out. Let's move on. Just saying it's important isn't going to change the emotional dynamics. In fact, it'll probably just make them worse. The reason people can't discuss it reasonably is because they think it's so bloody important.

jf- 8y ago

The most likely outcome, in my opinion, is a no deal Brexit. That has been the most likely outcome for several months. There has only been the illusion of progress in the talks. Really things are in largely the same state they’ve been in since January. The Northern Ireland border issue has not been solved, because it is effectively impossible to solve. The EU wants Northern Ireland to remain in the customs union to prevent a border on the island of Ireland, however the UK conservative government depend on the DUP, who are opposed, for support and will not agree. The EU will not consider any deal that introduces a border. There is no compromise position here, either one side backs down or there is no deal. Also the conservatives have floated the idea of a “Canada+++” free trade deal, which to my knowledge has never been offered by the EU, as it would include services and thus be too close to the single market, rendering it meaningless. Even if the NI border issue were to disappear overnight, the substance of a deal still appears to be unagreed. The deadline of March next year is fast approaching and any extension to the current negotiation period will need to be passed by the EU. If it comes to that, some EU government will likely derail the extension process and it won’t happen. Then everyone will shout “But we couldn’t possibly have seen this coming!”, even though you could see it months ago, as the UK hurtles towards no deal Brexit with no means of stopping.

mpweiher 8y ago
> The EU wants Northern Ireland to remain in the customs union to prevent a border on the island of Ireland, Ireland and Northern Ireland desperately want to prevent a hard border in order to maintain the hard-won peace and prevent the return of the bloodshed that drenched the island (and the rest of the UK). Ireland being in the EU, the EU has put its weight behind Ireland. That's how amplification of international clout/power through shared institution works. In fact, the UK government also claims to want to prevent a hard border, yet has provided no way of actually doing so except "magically it won't be there", and the only practical solution (discounting magic) is for NI to remain in the CU and SM. That has been clear from the start.
- dorchadas 8y ago
  The problem is the DUP. May requires their support in Parliament, and I'm not entirely sure what the DUP wants is what's best to avoid reigniting the Troubles. I know my friends in both Ireland and Northern Ireland (Protestant and Catholic) were very much of the opinion that May was making a deal with the devil, and that it wasn't going to be good for the Good Friday Agreement.

coldtea 8y ago

It's hard to make someone on HN understand why someone would ever want a Brexit. As the 10%-ers, their livelihood depends on them not understanding it - and their social circles can only consider the people who do unwashed masses and scum.

emerged 8y ago
It's a bizarre thing, this and the polarized US, as someone who's lived back and forth between the Midwest and California for decades. Both perspectives have genuine value, but both have this ridiculous sense that they hold the Truth.
- dorchadas 8y ago
  And neither of them are likely to look at long term consequences. Well, one side is, but they often don't factor the other group into their long term consequence outlook, whereas I'm convinced the one side doesn't think of anything long-term. I'm a solidly progressive person teaching in solidly Trump country (like, my state was basically called before the election was even over), and that's just been my experience. But, I went to school in a very progressive school, and it was the same -- they never considered rural or Blue Collar America in their long-term consequence planning, apart from "oh, we can give them this to support them, etc." Wasn't much discussion on how it would affect them individually and, even if they were able to live comfortably, how it would affect them culturally (having a job and providing for your family is what makes you a man, etc)
  - coldtea 8y ago
    >they never considered rural or Blue Collar America in their long-term consequence planning Yes, from all I've read and seen it's a case of "millions out of jobs, devastated? tough luck, they need to embrace change, the future's is for those that adapt, etc..." -- all the while those saying it benefit from the current economy and so have no experience whatsoever with "adapting" themselves (and if they were on the other end would be crying like little babies).

bduerst 8y ago

Why was this flagged?

lorenzhs 8y ago
Probably because the comments are a dumpster fire and triggered the flame-war detector.
- jf- 8y ago
  They don’t look like much of a dumpster fire to me.
- dang 8y ago
  No, that mechanism is orthogonal to flagging.
dang 8y ago
Users clicked 'flag'.

joejerryronnie 8y ago

The day after Brexit will be like Neo waking up from the Matrix. Yes, there will be pain and things may not seem quite as bright as they did under the yoke of the EU - but they will finally be free of the oppressive regime of Germany, France, and the EU bureaucrats. The UK should have the chance to drive their own destiny. The EU was a great and prosperous (for some) experiment but it has outlived its usefulness for all but the elites desperately clinging to power. It's only a matter of time until another major country exits, then the balkans, then the south. The UK should rip the band-aid off now and focus on their core strengths of Finance and Tech, work to build out domestic manufacturing and agriculture capabilities, and establish trade agreements with key partners. The UK will come out stronger and more globally competitive in the end.

twtw 8y ago
> oppressive regime of Germany, France, and the EU bureaucrats. I'd like to understand what you are talking about. Could you give some more details on this "oppressive regime?"
- joejerryronnie 8y ago
  It's pretty clear that Merkel and Macron essentially dictate EU policy to all other member nations and the EU Commissioners make broad, sweeping policies from on high that are driven as much by personal ambition as by the needs of the EU (e.g. Vestager's blatant attack on US tech).
Piskvorrr 8y ago
Perhaps w/o Scotland though. After all, if the British may leave the oppressive yoke of Brussels, doesn't the same hold true of Scottish leaving the oppressive yoke of London? "But...but...but...how would they DARE!!! Of course they mayn't!", I keep hearing from the English. "But isn't the situation symmetric? Of course we may!", I keep hearing from the Scots.
- joejerryronnie 8y ago
  I support Scottish independence as well.