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It is a big deal - committing violence against your own citizens in diplomatic havens on foreign soil is as dark as it gets. However, there are good things goi

It is a big deal - committing violence against your own citizens in diplomatic havens on foreign soil is as dark as it gets. However, there are good things going on in Saudi Arabia right now and the West would be futile to derail this. The Saudis need to answer for their actions, but not at the price of stopping the modernization they are undergoing.

dudul 8y ago
I'm not an expert but I've read/seen here and there that even the whole "modernization" thing is overblown. The "women can drive!" thing was mostly for show, and is barely applied in practice. It seems to even be the opposite : while former rulers were sharing power with their counselors, MBS looks like he wants to rule alone and unopposed.
- flyinglizard 8y ago
  MBS wants to turn Saudi Arabia into something like a Gulf state. Therefore they are investing in tech (directly and indirectly e.g Softbank), building a new tech city with relaxed rules, etc. They know the oil run won't last for another 50 years.
Kaveren 8y ago
Why are you so eager to buy into the modernization narrative? Killing an innocent journalist is not very modernizing, and I can't pretend to believe even for a second that MBS didn't know about this. It's clearly only for PR so they can make more money and continue to commit atrocities. There won't be real progress. When I hear "anti-corruption purge" I think "get rid of my political enemies".
- flyinglizard 8y ago
  I'm sure MBS knew about this. Many people will find it offensive, but the Middle East has its own rules. Saudi Arabia is nothing like a Western state in terms of its power structure and population. Things that we find barbaric are contributing to long term stability. In this area, when you lose control over the population you get things like the Syrian civil war. But that's not at odds with modernization. Singapore is a very modern nation, as is China in parts and you could count some Gulf states on some aspects. Modernization does not have to include democracy and human rights in the way they are perceived in the West. Whatever happens, it's a long process and has inertia. Put hard limits on MBS and his ilk, but be wary of turning SA into a pariah state over this. They are turning their back to Whabbism and radical Islam, it won't be good for anyone if things are rolled back.
  - Kaveren 8y ago
    You're looking at Saudi Arabia from the point of view of a strategic ally. They're a threat, and what they do is not something we need to support. I'm not usually the person to bring up past comments, but I do think your opinion on what I extrapolate to be cancelling the arms deal: "> and when countries can’t rely on Western political, technological and military support, it is very likely they will attempt to pursue WMDs to make up for it (as done by all three)" It's a commonly brought up argument, but North Korea never pursued WMDs because of fear of a Western threat, or to defend themselves from anyone. They did it because they want to use it as leverage to get the US to pull out of South Korea (which is also why they want the peace treaty declared so badly). This is working quite well so far. Again, I only bring that comment up because I think it's relevant here, and the North Korea statement as a counter-example. I'm more concerned by what Saudi Arabia is going to do with those arms we sell them. It's possible that a moderate Western democracy could eventually work if you didn't kill members of a free press, which would be the first step.
yourapostasy 8y ago
> However, there are good things going on in Saudi Arabia right now... What is not given prominent coverage at the moment is MbS is the latest in the House of Saud attempting to prune back the Wahhabist power base [1]. There are whispers that Jamal Kashoggi might possibly be nefariously related to 9/11, and is at the least a "person of interest" [2]. It is extremely unlikely we will ever know the realpolitik behind-the-scenes story now, and going back to status quo ante becomes increasingly possible for the KSA the more days this drags on (it would be interesting to find out if the KSA has procured crisis management and/or PR expertise for this incident). [1] https://www.albawaba.com/news/saudi-arabia-turning-against-wahhabism-1114788 https://www.albawaba.com/news/saudi-arabia-turning-against-w... [2] https://washingtonsblog.com/2018/10/jamal-khashoggi-where-the-road-to-damascus-the-path-to-9-11-converge.html https://washingtonsblog.com/2018/10/jamal-khashoggi-where-th...

dudul 8y ago

I'm not an expert but I've read/seen here and there that even the whole "modernization" thing is overblown. The "women can drive!" thing was mostly for show, and is barely applied in practice. It seems to even be the opposite : while former rulers were sharing power with their counselors, MBS looks like he wants to rule alone and unopposed.

flyinglizard 8y ago
MBS wants to turn Saudi Arabia into something like a Gulf state. Therefore they are investing in tech (directly and indirectly e.g Softbank), building a new tech city with relaxed rules, etc. They know the oil run won't last for another 50 years.

Kaveren 8y ago

Why are you so eager to buy into the modernization narrative? Killing an innocent journalist is not very modernizing, and I can't pretend to believe even for a second that MBS didn't know about this. It's clearly only for PR so they can make more money and continue to commit atrocities. There won't be real progress. When I hear "anti-corruption purge" I think "get rid of my political enemies".

flyinglizard 8y ago
I'm sure MBS knew about this. Many people will find it offensive, but the Middle East has its own rules. Saudi Arabia is nothing like a Western state in terms of its power structure and population. Things that we find barbaric are contributing to long term stability. In this area, when you lose control over the population you get things like the Syrian civil war. But that's not at odds with modernization. Singapore is a very modern nation, as is China in parts and you could count some Gulf states on some aspects. Modernization does not have to include democracy and human rights in the way they are perceived in the West. Whatever happens, it's a long process and has inertia. Put hard limits on MBS and his ilk, but be wary of turning SA into a pariah state over this. They are turning their back to Whabbism and radical Islam, it won't be good for anyone if things are rolled back.
- Kaveren 8y ago
  You're looking at Saudi Arabia from the point of view of a strategic ally. They're a threat, and what they do is not something we need to support. I'm not usually the person to bring up past comments, but I do think your opinion on what I extrapolate to be cancelling the arms deal: "> and when countries can’t rely on Western political, technological and military support, it is very likely they will attempt to pursue WMDs to make up for it (as done by all three)" It's a commonly brought up argument, but North Korea never pursued WMDs because of fear of a Western threat, or to defend themselves from anyone. They did it because they want to use it as leverage to get the US to pull out of South Korea (which is also why they want the peace treaty declared so badly). This is working quite well so far. Again, I only bring that comment up because I think it's relevant here, and the North Korea statement as a counter-example. I'm more concerned by what Saudi Arabia is going to do with those arms we sell them. It's possible that a moderate Western democracy could eventually work if you didn't kill members of a free press, which would be the first step.

yourapostasy 8y ago

> However, there are good things going on in Saudi Arabia right now... What is not given prominent coverage at the moment is MbS is the latest in the House of Saud attempting to prune back the Wahhabist power base [1]. There are whispers that Jamal Kashoggi might possibly be nefariously related to 9/11, and is at the least a "person of interest" [2]. It is extremely unlikely we will ever know the realpolitik behind-the-scenes story now, and going back to status quo ante becomes increasingly possible for the KSA the more days this drags on (it would be interesting to find out if the KSA has procured crisis management and/or PR expertise for this incident). [1] https://www.albawaba.com/news/saudi-arabia-turning-against-wahhabism-1114788 https://www.albawaba.com/news/saudi-arabia-turning-against-w... [2] https://washingtonsblog.com/2018/10/jamal-khashoggi-where-the-road-to-damascus-the-path-to-9-11-converge.html https://washingtonsblog.com/2018/10/jamal-khashoggi-where-th...