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That's my point. The auto companies had spectacularly poor management for decades (2 out of 3 of the American big auto companies went bankrupt during the crash
by blihp 8y ago
That's my point. The auto companies had spectacularly poor management for decades (2 out of 3 of the American big auto companies went bankrupt during the crash... the crash didn't do them in, the 30 years prior to the crash did.) I'm skeptical that they are really that much better managed now. And Kodak was very well positioned (as you say, they were in quite early), the auto companies aren't (they're playing catch-up on all fronts: ride-sharing, driverless, electric.)
I'm not saying that good management and execution won't work, merely that their future isn't likely to be one of growth. If they think it is, they run the risk of ending up in the same situation as Kodak. If they plan today to be much smaller enterprises 10 and 20 years out, they could come out the other side in good shape.
- ghaff 8y agoI don't really disagree with any of that. Even if you don't think that vehicle sales will fall off a cliff and even if you have confidence that the big automakers and their suppliers can get to self-driving and electric by the time there's a sizable market for them, it's hard to see a scenario where the market for consumer vehicles increases or even stays flat. I actually dumped my auto stocks fairly recently. It's a lot easier to imagine downsides than upsides for the industry as a whole, much less individual companies that, as you say, don't have a great track record in recent decades.
- blihp 8y agoExactly. I'm not suggesting that it's all going to come crashing down or even happen overnight, just that the trend line for them isn't up and to the right. I sincerely hope the auto companies realize this and plan accordingly even if they won't say it publicly.