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The author identifies the key appeal of concentrated solar thermal generation vs. photovoltaics, but remains a bit too optimistic about how competitive this rac
by philipkglass 8y ago
The author identifies the key appeal of concentrated solar thermal generation vs. photovoltaics, but remains a bit too optimistic about how competitive this race still is:
While a big boost in efficiency is great, concentrated solar is far enough behind photovoltaics on price that it's not going to make a big enough difference in a direct competition. But the real competition here isn't directly with photovoltaics; instead there are two separate competitions. One is against photovoltaics plus batteries, since only that provides the possibility of around-the-clock energy access. Here, the costs are changing fast enough that it's difficult to figure out where things stand.
I would say that it is not particularly difficult to figure out where things stand; absent a surprising catch-up from solar thermal power, photovoltaics-plus-batteries is going to win. For one thing, CSP only works where there is very high direct normal irradiance. Partially cloudy conditions cause its performance to drop much faster than the actual intensity of illumination drops. PV works fine with direct and indirect illumination. For that reason CSP performance declines in wintertime in temperate regions worse than PV does. You can see the effect by looking at performance-by-month for American solar PV and solar thermal here:
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_6_07_b https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.ph...
In June 2017, solar thermal plants had a capacity factor of 37.9% while PV plants reached 35.7%. But in December 2017, thermal plants reached only a 9% capacity factor while PV plants reached 17.4%.
This new material might be one way for thermal to compete better with PV. But to do so it will need to enter commercial use soon. Commercial battery storage projects are ramping up around the world. For stationary battery storage applications, technical breakthroughs for higher energy density aren't necessary; "last year's chemistry, but manufactured bigger and cheaper" is just fine. Further, the whole-project cost of PV + batteries declines when either batteries or PV decline in price.
Even if solar thermal power doesn't pan out, this material might be useful in future energy systems. I have been reading for many years about how Generation IV nuclear reactors could run at high temperatures with supercritical CO2 turbines for compact, more efficient heat-to-electricity production. It's nice to have some of the supporting technology developed ahead of time. Even if such reactors never become competitive for terrestrial use, there is also the rest of the solar system to consider.
- mchannon 8y agoTotal agreement. Although zirconium and tungsten aren't exactly the most expensive metals, they are extremely hard and dense and processing them in this manner would appear to be a big minus against this technology. I can picture a factory warehouse putting out 40' containers of PV's, racking, and backup batteries daily, while a far more massive smelter and mill next door struggles to manufacture the equivalent for CPV. I'm glad they addressed the thermolysis of CO2, because that was a major concern. Having explored thermolysis as a method for reversing carbon dioxide buildup in Earth's air, I realized quickly that breaking CO2 down into CO is not challenging at all, but getting the CO to go to C is the highest temperature reaction known. Just because I don't think this breakthrough is going to win doesn't mean I'm not thrilled they made it. Never know what other breakthroughs may leverage this technology.
- ars 8y ago> but getting the CO to go to C is the highest temperature reaction known. Even higher than H2 + O ? (I'm sure it's not higher than H + H, but that one probably doesn't count.) And won't atomic carbon react with other carbon? So you don't actually need to supply as much energy as it may appear.
- vondur 8y agoI’d imagine the thermodynamics are not favorable for the reduction of CO to elemental carbon. Burning H2 in oxygen is very thermodynamically favored.
- ars 8y agoObviously I meant thermolysis of water when I wrote that. It only takes place at extremely high temperatures, and I'd like to see data that carbon monoxide is at a higher temperature.
- mchannon 8y agoFrom chapter 211 of my book: None have proposed then taking the CO through a final step and ending up with simple C and O. This is not without good reason: out of all substances known to thermally decompose, none does it at a higher temperature than carbon monoxide. If you thought 2,000° was hard, try 3,870° C. That’s hot enough to melt any known metal. That’s hot enough to melt any rock! The few substances known to man that can be counted on to stay solid at that temperature can be counted on one hand.