3 ms·
A Fatal Flip
- nabla9 8y agoTemporal preference and temporal discounting helps to solve this problem. The reward from flipping the coin id delayed. For a average person, the probability of living healthy life at least 10-20 years is very high. The reward from flipping coin is delayed but the death is instant. The value from for flipping the coin as a function compared to not flipping starts from 0 and grows very gradually over time. Alter the game a little: You don't need to flip the coin instantly. You can choose any moment of your remaining healthy life to flip the coin. Once you lose your health you can't flip the coin anymore.
- jeffreyrogers 8y agoYour altered game does seem more desirable. But it's still interesting that the expected value calculation is correct yet most people would decline the game as initially proposed.
- nabla9 8y agoAs I said. Temporal discounting explains it well. For normal working age adult the choice in the 10-20 year time horizon is 50% percent change of dying now versus 99% change of living healthy life when not flipping the coin. Living forever healthy forever does not change the near future.