8 ms·

It seems to me like in big cities, as this article describes what eventually will happen is the rich will buy up the property because nobody else can afford it,

It seems to me like in big cities, as this article describes what eventually will happen is the rich will buy up the property because nobody else can afford it, service workers won't be able to actually live within a reasonable distance in order to work there, and the city will exist mainly for 1) wealthy professionals, 2) people who use real estate to park their money, and 3) tourists. Regular working-class folk disappear. When one visits the city in the daytime, it seems like it has activity because of the tourists, but it has no real indigenous activity. Perhaps that's the steady state, because there are enough tourists to keep the city going economically.

buf 8y ago
Completely agree.
wgerard 8y ago
Anecdotally, that doesn't really seem to be the problem with New York and definitely not the problem the article is talking about. Ground-level stores don't seem to be suffering from staffing issues, largely because in New York it's not uncommon to work in Manhattan but live in Staten Island or Jersey. Instead, ground-level stores seem to be disappearing because commercial lease agreements are just insanely expensive and onerous. Landlords refuse to reduce rents (for several purported reasons) in an increasingly buyer-friendly real estate market.
- Nav_Panel 8y ago
  Yep. Walk down Bleecker St where my parents used to hang out in the 80s and it's a ghost town. Apparently the historic neighborhood designation means it takes over 10 months for any lease application to close, as it needs to be approved by the historic neighborhood board. Once approved, it often requires a significant amount of capital to build the proposed establishment in a compliant way. Businesses don't even bother trying.
- Wowfunhappy 8y ago
  And, this feels like an issue that will naturally fix itself over time, as landlords realize what they're asking for isn't reasonable.
  - neuromantik8086 8y ago
    > And, this feels like an issue that will naturally fix itself over time, as landlords realize what they're asking for isn't reasonable. Except it won't, exactly because landlords are rational actors. Let's say the upkeep for a space is $400/mo, and the rental for that same space is 3000/mo. A storefront could be vacant for 2 years and a landlord would still turn a hefty profit if they were able to get someone to sign a one-year lease after the 2 years of vacancy. NYC is a big place- for every 30000 people that think that the rent is unreasonable, there's 1 person who thinks that it is, and landlords only need that 1 person. Renters have no leverage here.
    - naravara 8y ago
      This is why property and land taxes are good. Land is, as they say, the only thing they're not making any more of. If you're owning it and not putting it towards any productive use you ought to pay back into the commons for the lost utility.
      - kenmicklas 8y ago
        In this case property tax (the non-land component of it) only exacerbates the problem though.
    - notatcomputer68 8y ago
      But what about the landlords mortgage?
    - charlesdm 8y ago
      "Hefty profit"? I don't see how that is good investing -- properties sell based on yield. If someone buys a prime property and it generates 3 or 4% per year.. then they're not going to let it sit empty for two years. Renters do have leverage here. You're not going to get it for $1000, but you might for $2500 or $2200.
adrianN 8y ago
Those have to be really big cities, because in cities with reasonable public transport you can hop on a train or a bus from basically anywhere within city limits and reach the expensive center in less than half an hour.
- naravara 8y ago
  >cities with reasonable public transport Does NYC qualify? I think you can still hit theoretical under-half hour times if you manage to get the subway right as your train comes in and don't have to walk too far from the stations to the doors. But if you live in New York the psychological barrier of dealing with that crap is big enough that people tend not to do it outside of commuting. It's a chore to get someone in Brooklyn to come into the city to hang out unless it's right after work. And vice versa.
  - ascagnel_ 8y ago
    NYC has some of the best, if not the best, public transport in the US. > It's a chore to get someone in Brooklyn to come into the city to hang out unless it's right after work. And vice versa. The issue, I think, is that young professionals have largely been priced out of Manhattan, and the East River acts as a psychological boundary. Even if it's just a short trip, you're still leaving/entering "the city". As a side anecdote, the club Maxwell's in Hoboken closed a few years ago; the reason given was that most of the bands that played there were willing to cross one river to play a gig, but only a small fraction were willing to cross both, even though the trip wasn't substantially longer.
    - naravara 8y ago
      >NYC has some of the best, if not the best, public transport in the US. This seems like damning with faint praise to anyone whose been to a developed city in East Asia or Western Europe.
aylmao 8y ago
A look at the financial district in NYC reveals this. During the day the place is very active, but during the night the whole thing dies out.
- johnmyleswhite 8y ago
  But the Financial District was much emptier at night historically than it is now, so I'm not sure this is closely linked to the article's claims.
- vivism 8y ago
  It is still recovering from 9/11.
samstave 8y ago
See my comment ITT regarding Lake Tahoe - this has already happened there.
lumberjack 8y ago
This is exactly what happens to the historic centres of some European cities. But the life of the city just moves to the outskirts for the most part.
asauce 8y ago
This is exactly what is happening in Vancouver. The rich have parked their money in downtown real estate, so the working class is being pushed further and further out of the downtown district.

buf 8y ago

Completely agree.

wgerard 8y ago

Anecdotally, that doesn't really seem to be the problem with New York and definitely not the problem the article is talking about. Ground-level stores don't seem to be suffering from staffing issues, largely because in New York it's not uncommon to work in Manhattan but live in Staten Island or Jersey. Instead, ground-level stores seem to be disappearing because commercial lease agreements are just insanely expensive and onerous. Landlords refuse to reduce rents (for several purported reasons) in an increasingly buyer-friendly real estate market.

Nav_Panel 8y ago
Yep. Walk down Bleecker St where my parents used to hang out in the 80s and it's a ghost town. Apparently the historic neighborhood designation means it takes over 10 months for any lease application to close, as it needs to be approved by the historic neighborhood board. Once approved, it often requires a significant amount of capital to build the proposed establishment in a compliant way. Businesses don't even bother trying.
Wowfunhappy 8y ago
And, this feels like an issue that will naturally fix itself over time, as landlords realize what they're asking for isn't reasonable.
- neuromantik8086 8y ago
  > And, this feels like an issue that will naturally fix itself over time, as landlords realize what they're asking for isn't reasonable. Except it won't, exactly because landlords are rational actors. Let's say the upkeep for a space is $400/mo, and the rental for that same space is 3000/mo. A storefront could be vacant for 2 years and a landlord would still turn a hefty profit if they were able to get someone to sign a one-year lease after the 2 years of vacancy. NYC is a big place- for every 30000 people that think that the rent is unreasonable, there's 1 person who thinks that it is, and landlords only need that 1 person. Renters have no leverage here.
  - naravara 8y ago
    This is why property and land taxes are good. Land is, as they say, the only thing they're not making any more of. If you're owning it and not putting it towards any productive use you ought to pay back into the commons for the lost utility.
    - kenmicklas 8y ago
      In this case property tax (the non-land component of it) only exacerbates the problem though.
  - notatcomputer68 8y ago
    But what about the landlords mortgage?
  - charlesdm 8y ago
    "Hefty profit"? I don't see how that is good investing -- properties sell based on yield. If someone buys a prime property and it generates 3 or 4% per year.. then they're not going to let it sit empty for two years. Renters do have leverage here. You're not going to get it for $1000, but you might for $2500 or $2200.

adrianN 8y ago

Those have to be really big cities, because in cities with reasonable public transport you can hop on a train or a bus from basically anywhere within city limits and reach the expensive center in less than half an hour.

naravara 8y ago
>cities with reasonable public transport Does NYC qualify? I think you can still hit theoretical under-half hour times if you manage to get the subway right as your train comes in and don't have to walk too far from the stations to the doors. But if you live in New York the psychological barrier of dealing with that crap is big enough that people tend not to do it outside of commuting. It's a chore to get someone in Brooklyn to come into the city to hang out unless it's right after work. And vice versa.
- ascagnel_ 8y ago
  NYC has some of the best, if not the best, public transport in the US. > It's a chore to get someone in Brooklyn to come into the city to hang out unless it's right after work. And vice versa. The issue, I think, is that young professionals have largely been priced out of Manhattan, and the East River acts as a psychological boundary. Even if it's just a short trip, you're still leaving/entering "the city". As a side anecdote, the club Maxwell's in Hoboken closed a few years ago; the reason given was that most of the bands that played there were willing to cross one river to play a gig, but only a small fraction were willing to cross both, even though the trip wasn't substantially longer.
  - naravara 8y ago
    >NYC has some of the best, if not the best, public transport in the US. This seems like damning with faint praise to anyone whose been to a developed city in East Asia or Western Europe.

aylmao 8y ago

A look at the financial district in NYC reveals this. During the day the place is very active, but during the night the whole thing dies out.

johnmyleswhite 8y ago
But the Financial District was much emptier at night historically than it is now, so I'm not sure this is closely linked to the article's claims.
vivism 8y ago
It is still recovering from 9/11.

samstave 8y ago

See my comment ITT regarding Lake Tahoe - this has already happened there.

lumberjack 8y ago

This is exactly what happens to the historic centres of some European cities. But the life of the city just moves to the outskirts for the most part.

asauce 8y ago

This is exactly what is happening in Vancouver. The rich have parked their money in downtown real estate, so the working class is being pushed further and further out of the downtown district.