3 ms·

> Maybe the field just needs another 50 years to mature. This thought is pretty obvious from my humble POV. Do we know of any field this extensive that matured

> Maybe the field just needs another 50 years to mature. This thought is pretty obvious from my humble POV. Do we know of any field this extensive that matured (by any reasonable definition of "mature") in less than 100 years? Civil engineering took thousands of years to get to a point where it's not taken for granted anymore that the construction of a large building will cost the life of some construction workers.

kough 8y ago
I'd love to read a short sci-fi story about what it's like programming in a mature field. what problems will go away? which do we want to go away? (will people still use emacs?)
- ken 8y ago
  The classic is https://www.fastcompany.com/28121/they-write-right-stuff https://www.fastcompany.com/28121/they-write-right-stuff and it's sci but not fi.
ken 8y ago
Sure. Powered flight went from "not invented yet" to "fastest and safest way to travel" in less than 100 years. Nuclear power has had a couple significant disasters but is otherwise mature. Antibiotics. Rockets and satellites (like GPS). Filmmaking. For the most part, I think major new inventions of the 20th century have taken much less than 100 years to mature. We have science and engineering now, so being able to apply them to new fields is generally feasible. I'd flip it around: what fields still have not matured yet? In what fields, since the dawn of science and modern engineering, is the median project still a failure? I'm hard pressed to think of any outside of software.
- majewsky 8y ago
  > In what fields, since the dawn of science and modern engineering, is the median project still a failure? Social sciences (the replication crisis).
  - ken 8y ago
    True, but social sciences (at least many of them) definitely predate the scientific method. Also, observing that software engineering is not really doing much worse than social sciences at producing results certainly doesn't make me feel very good about software engineering.

kough 8y ago

I'd love to read a short sci-fi story about what it's like programming in a mature field. what problems will go away? which do we want to go away? (will people still use emacs?)

ken 8y ago
The classic is https://www.fastcompany.com/28121/they-write-right-stuff https://www.fastcompany.com/28121/they-write-right-stuff and it's sci but not fi.

ken 8y ago

Sure. Powered flight went from "not invented yet" to "fastest and safest way to travel" in less than 100 years. Nuclear power has had a couple significant disasters but is otherwise mature. Antibiotics. Rockets and satellites (like GPS). Filmmaking. For the most part, I think major new inventions of the 20th century have taken much less than 100 years to mature. We have science and engineering now, so being able to apply them to new fields is generally feasible. I'd flip it around: what fields still have not matured yet? In what fields, since the dawn of science and modern engineering, is the median project still a failure? I'm hard pressed to think of any outside of software.

majewsky 8y ago
> In what fields, since the dawn of science and modern engineering, is the median project still a failure? Social sciences (the replication crisis).
- ken 8y ago
  True, but social sciences (at least many of them) definitely predate the scientific method. Also, observing that software engineering is not really doing much worse than social sciences at producing results certainly doesn't make me feel very good about software engineering.