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Here's the thing: this sounds bad, but partly because of the massive, massive scale. However, everything in China sounds ridiculously big to me; the environmen
by rossdavidh 8y ago
Here's the thing: this sounds bad, but partly because of the massive, massive scale. However, everything in China sounds ridiculously big to me; the environmental problems, the amount of stuff being built, everything. So, my intuition for when "that's too big" turns into "that's so big it will go BANG pretty soon" is no good, when it comes to China. Thus, the question is, how big is this, on a China-everything-is-big kind of scale? What will be the thing that would make this stop? How do we know it's not just an early 90's S&L crisis kind of thing, that is, big but not catastrophic?
I'm not saying it's not a crisis, I'm just saying I can't tell if it's a crisis because it's China, everything seems way too big to me, and lots of it just continues that way for many years.
- crdoconnor 8y agoThe difference between debts and environmental disasters is that debts can always be canceled or watered down. Indeed China's MO is usually to do that indirectly every time, which is why articles like this have popped up like clockwork for the last decade in spite of China not facing a recession in that time. Counter cyclical fiscal stimulus always headed it off.