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There is an element of chance in getting into any top school, but only among the applicants who meet all the other qualifications. That is, between two student

There is an element of chance in getting into any top school, but only among the applicants who meet all the other qualifications. That is, between two students with 4.0 GPA, great SAT scores, and a wide selection of extracurricular activities and community service, it's a toss up. But a student with poor grades has no chance. It doesn't matter how many times the student with bad grades sends his application, he isn't getting in just by random chance. When it comes to Harvard, I would guess that 80-90% of applicants can be dropped immediately due to grades, SAT scores or lack of activities. Out of the remaining pool, for those without extenuating circumstances such as athleticism or family connections, is where such as race and "personality" might become a factor, and who ends up getting picked has an element of randomness.

Balgair 8y ago
Fair! I did look only at the 'non-legacy/athletic' Harvard acceptance rates (hard to find and piece together, btw), so we're looking at a bit more apples to apples comparison, though, as you say, not totally. Lets say that only 10% of the applicants that enter can win. If you think that you are a possible winner in terms of scores, grades, etc. then what should you pay to enter the lotto? Please correct my math if I am wrong (probability is always a mind warp). The further reduction in probability to win makes the nominal acceptance rate not 3%, but 0.3%. That means that the price of the hypothetical lotto ticket should be $8,980. You just move the decimal over. Still, compared to the $75 application fee, this is a steal. The acceptance rate would need to be ~0.003% to get the lotto ticket price to be about what the application fee is. That means Harvard would need to be ~1000x more picky than they currently are to get the lotto priced correctly. Harvard had ~40k applications last year. At 1:1000 odds being considered 'worthwhile' due to the hypothetical lotto ticket cost, then you should apply if you think you are better than the bottom 40 applicants. You can play with the probabilities and make up a lot of hypothetical curves yourself. Nonetheless, the math seems to indicate that the $75 application fee is really low if you think you have nearly any chance of getting in and the process has nearly any randomness to it.

Balgair 8y ago

Fair! I did look only at the 'non-legacy/athletic' Harvard acceptance rates (hard to find and piece together, btw), so we're looking at a bit more apples to apples comparison, though, as you say, not totally. Lets say that only 10% of the applicants that enter can win. If you think that you are a possible winner in terms of scores, grades, etc. then what should you pay to enter the lotto? Please correct my math if I am wrong (probability is always a mind warp). The further reduction in probability to win makes the nominal acceptance rate not 3%, but 0.3%. That means that the price of the hypothetical lotto ticket should be $8,980. You just move the decimal over. Still, compared to the $75 application fee, this is a steal. The acceptance rate would need to be ~0.003% to get the lotto ticket price to be about what the application fee is. That means Harvard would need to be ~1000x more picky than they currently are to get the lotto priced correctly. Harvard had ~40k applications last year. At 1:1000 odds being considered 'worthwhile' due to the hypothetical lotto ticket cost, then you should apply if you think you are better than the bottom 40 applicants. You can play with the probabilities and make up a lot of hypothetical curves yourself. Nonetheless, the math seems to indicate that the $75 application fee is really low if you think you have nearly any chance of getting in and the process has nearly any randomness to it.