4 ms·

"Catastrophic climate change" is no longer my primary concern here. I don't think we're going to avoid that. My big concern now is Peak Oil. If major producers

• gpm 8y ago
  Why do you believe that we are that near peak oil?
  • beat 8y ago
    Because I can read.
• rootusrootus 8y ago
  > What happens to the world if the price of gasoline spikes 50-100% in a mere year or two? An uptick in EV sales, I'd guess. Gasoline was about 55% more expensive less than a decade ago, recall. We survived. I don't think it would get all that interesting until gasoline gets around $10 or more per gallon in today's prices.
  • noir_lord 8y ago
    It's around $7 per gallon in the UK already. The net result is on average we drive smaller cars with more efficient engines.
    • beat 8y ago
      There are serious limits to the scalability of that solution. We can't all just sell the cars we have and buy something 25% better every year. And frankly, we've squeezed most of the efficiency we're going to get out of internal combustion already.
      • noir_lord 8y ago
        > And frankly, we've squeezed most of the efficiency we're going to get out of internal combustion already. If we stick to large engines we need to push honking great SUV's around maybe, modern 3 door's (like the Citigo) are pushing 60+ mpg average in the is something like 25.
        • rootusrootus 8y ago
          We're already there for anyone who wants it. A Prius gets essentially the same gas mileage as the Citigo while also being more appropriately sized for American tasets.
        • beat 8y ago
          To my point, your solution is not better cars, but rather smaller cars. That's incrementalism, and it won't go far. Feel-good snark about the American love of big cars won't solve the problem at all.
• daxfohl 8y ago
  We are forced to drive and consume less, avoiding climate change extinction? Sounds like a thing to hope for rather than a concern.
• theandrewbailey 8y ago
  I'm highly skeptical that peak oil will happen from lack of supply. I'm betting it will happen from lack of demand. Petroleum extracting technology gets better, and is always increasing viable reserves of existing oil fields.
  • brixon 8y ago
    There are still very large oil fields up north, but they are a bit too expensive to extract right now. If gas prices go up enough then they can start getting oil from there.
  • beat 8y ago
    That's what I'm hoping will happen - that EVs will lead to a big drop in demand before Peak Oil leads to a drop in supply. But hope is not a strategy.
• gwbas1c 8y ago
  It won't, because at that price point it's cost-effective to manufacture gasoline using algae or other biological techniques. the only reason why we pump oil out of the ground is because it's the cheapest way to manufacture gasoline and diesel fuel.
• noobermin 8y ago
  >"Catastrophic climate change" is no longer my primary concern here. I don't think we're going to avoid that. I don't know about you, but I will live to see a destroyed climate. We should do everything in our power to soften its blow when it comes.
  • vpribish 8y ago
    yeah - I mean no matter how bad is is, it can always be worse! There's a sort of nihilistic worldview implied by these statements from usually-smart, usually-young folks that I don't think they actually believe. it's just an intellectual tantrum, i think.
• vpribish 8y ago
  peak oil is not worth worrying about. I've studied this for investment projects and the whole idea is just a perpetual, simplistic, political meme that has existed since the oil industry started a century and a half ago. Oil might get more expensive than it is now, but that will lead rapidly to renewed investment in exploration and extraction. There are centuries-worth of reasonably-extractable oil - supply will literally never be a problem because we will have to leave that oil, and the coal, unburned for atmospheric chemistry reasons. peak oil consumption is a policy choice, peak oil supply is a myth.