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My perspective is that the problem of deciding the "correct" prior is a human problem because the human brain is a messy machine. An artificial intelligence whi
by abdullahkhalids 8y ago
My perspective is that the problem of deciding the "correct" prior is a human problem because the human brain is a messy machine. An artificial intelligence which has full access to its own code and its memory in perfect detail will know precisely what it knows about a certain situation, and therefore can estimate a prior that accurately reflects this knowledge.
In the windmill example, the AI can quickly collect all it has in its memory about blade speeds, and maybe spend a self-imposed X min computational time to make a best guess for the prior speed distribution.
Humans can't do this, so we have gone down a philosophical rabbit hole of figuring out this "prior problem", when the real problem is that we are just messy informal thinkers.
> How do we tell who is right?
You are fundamentally conceptually mistaken here. There is nothing right or wrong with two agents disagreeing on the prior. The different prior reflects the before experiment knowledge of the two agents. I am a windmill engineer, so my priors will be much more narrow than yours, who has never seen a windmill outside of a hollywood movie.