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> (In reality, most people will get out more than they put in.) Up until it runs out, at which point nobody gets anything. And for whichever generation gets sh

> (In reality, most people will get out more than they put in.) Up until it runs out, at which point nobody gets anything. And for whichever generation gets shafted (guess), they will be looking at a big negative when they see they get nothing for all the taxes they put in.

asdfasgasdgasdg 8y ago
In all likelihood, that generation will simply raise taxes to the point where they can pay for the benefits. The odds that old people are going to be like, "Welp, I guess we have to just die now," are basically zero. They, whoever they are, will simply vote for whichever party promises most sincerely to fix the situation by taxing everyone else to pay.
- miscreanity 8y ago
  People are already moving from high tax states to ones with no income tax. They won't stick around to simply die, so where will the taxes come from when the population is dwindling and there's no incentive to stay with rising tax rates? There's a reason places with little to no taxation are flush with funds.
  - quxbar 8y ago
    That's funny, I moved from TX to NY, I remember my public high school couldn't afford enough books. Somehow the lack of taxation didn't help with that.
    - miscreanity 8y ago
      No other factors are provided: were you in an affluent area? What other demographics influenced your school? Is there a high ratio of homeschooling or private schools to public schooling? Your anecdote is one data point, nowhere near enough to draw conclusions about the entire state.
  - asdfasgasdgasdg 8y ago
    > There's a reason places with little to no taxation are flush with funds. Places with little to no taxation are not flush with funds. https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/state-and-local-tax-revenue-capita https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/state-and-local-t... The generally red, generally low tax southeast and southwest states have about half the revenue per capita of the generally blue, generally high tax states in the northeast and far west. Where did you get this funny idea that collecting few taxes leads to collecting lots of taxes?
    - miscreanity 8y ago
      It seems you assume I was taking about tax collection and government being highly funded - I'm referring to the economy as a whole, of which government is only one component; preferably a shrinking one. Investment is accelerating in low and no-tax countries or regions while it is waning in high-tax locations. There is a growing realization that silicon valley is not all it's cracked up to be. Simple incentive structures explain a great deal of capital movement.
      - asdfasgasdgasdg 8y ago
        Even that is not true. Texas is doing well, sure enough, but so are New York and California.
        miscreanity 8y ago
        I will not do business in California or NY due to excessive costs. Many others are either already moved out or are scaling back in high tax areas; Florida, Puerto Rico and Texas seem to be the top tax-friendly destinations currently. There is still plenty of activity in CA & NY on a sheer volume basis but the barriers are high, the types of businesses are shifting[1] in a detrimental manner and the overall trend is declining. Don't get stuck in a purely domestic perspective. Absentee ownership is rising in many major cities due to international capital seeking safe havens for preservation of wealth - empty dwellings purchased at high rates results in elevated prices for working individuals, ensnaring them in a life-long debt cycle. If CA & NY continue resorting to taxation as the primary method for increasing revenue, they will end up like Detroit. Rome's final collapse occurred over the span of approximately a decade and offers a glimpse at what is likely to occur: taxes became oppressive and property owners simply walked away because it no longer made financial sense - the benefits are outweighed by the costs. How much more revenue loss can be endured by property owners in NYC before capitulation? They can hold out for a while and everything will appear to be doing alright, then the stampede begins and collapse takes place so fast you'll wonder what happened. [1] https://www.citylab.com/life/2018/10/how-manhattan-became-rich-ghost-town/573025/ https://www.citylab.com/life/2018/10/how-manhattan-became-ri...
derekp7 8y ago
Social Security will never "run out", due to the nature of it. The taxes from people currently working are what directly pays those who are currently retired and drawing on it. Now what could happen is one of two things. Either the benefits get cut to match the tax revenue at that time (estimates I've seen is that SS can drop to about 70% of what it is now), or that payroll taxes will increase, and the cap raised or eliminated.
- miscreanity 8y ago
  You could also eat less to save money on a declining income but eventually you'll be eating so little that you won't have the energy to get up and eat. Such actions have been attempted by empires throughout history - Julius Caesar attempted to do something very similar and was assassinated for it.

asdfasgasdgasdg 8y ago

In all likelihood, that generation will simply raise taxes to the point where they can pay for the benefits. The odds that old people are going to be like, "Welp, I guess we have to just die now," are basically zero. They, whoever they are, will simply vote for whichever party promises most sincerely to fix the situation by taxing everyone else to pay.

miscreanity 8y ago
People are already moving from high tax states to ones with no income tax. They won't stick around to simply die, so where will the taxes come from when the population is dwindling and there's no incentive to stay with rising tax rates? There's a reason places with little to no taxation are flush with funds.
- quxbar 8y ago
  That's funny, I moved from TX to NY, I remember my public high school couldn't afford enough books. Somehow the lack of taxation didn't help with that.
  - miscreanity 8y ago
    No other factors are provided: were you in an affluent area? What other demographics influenced your school? Is there a high ratio of homeschooling or private schools to public schooling? Your anecdote is one data point, nowhere near enough to draw conclusions about the entire state.
- asdfasgasdgasdg 8y ago
  > There's a reason places with little to no taxation are flush with funds. Places with little to no taxation are not flush with funds. https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/state-and-local-tax-revenue-capita https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/state-and-local-t... The generally red, generally low tax southeast and southwest states have about half the revenue per capita of the generally blue, generally high tax states in the northeast and far west. Where did you get this funny idea that collecting few taxes leads to collecting lots of taxes?
  - miscreanity 8y ago
    It seems you assume I was taking about tax collection and government being highly funded - I'm referring to the economy as a whole, of which government is only one component; preferably a shrinking one. Investment is accelerating in low and no-tax countries or regions while it is waning in high-tax locations. There is a growing realization that silicon valley is not all it's cracked up to be. Simple incentive structures explain a great deal of capital movement.
    - asdfasgasdgasdg 8y ago
      Even that is not true. Texas is doing well, sure enough, but so are New York and California.
      - miscreanity 8y ago
        I will not do business in California or NY due to excessive costs. Many others are either already moved out or are scaling back in high tax areas; Florida, Puerto Rico and Texas seem to be the top tax-friendly destinations currently. There is still plenty of activity in CA & NY on a sheer volume basis but the barriers are high, the types of businesses are shifting[1] in a detrimental manner and the overall trend is declining. Don't get stuck in a purely domestic perspective. Absentee ownership is rising in many major cities due to international capital seeking safe havens for preservation of wealth - empty dwellings purchased at high rates results in elevated prices for working individuals, ensnaring them in a life-long debt cycle. If CA & NY continue resorting to taxation as the primary method for increasing revenue, they will end up like Detroit. Rome's final collapse occurred over the span of approximately a decade and offers a glimpse at what is likely to occur: taxes became oppressive and property owners simply walked away because it no longer made financial sense - the benefits are outweighed by the costs. How much more revenue loss can be endured by property owners in NYC before capitulation? They can hold out for a while and everything will appear to be doing alright, then the stampede begins and collapse takes place so fast you'll wonder what happened. [1] https://www.citylab.com/life/2018/10/how-manhattan-became-rich-ghost-town/573025/ https://www.citylab.com/life/2018/10/how-manhattan-became-ri...

derekp7 8y ago

Social Security will never "run out", due to the nature of it. The taxes from people currently working are what directly pays those who are currently retired and drawing on it. Now what could happen is one of two things. Either the benefits get cut to match the tax revenue at that time (estimates I've seen is that SS can drop to about 70% of what it is now), or that payroll taxes will increase, and the cap raised or eliminated.

miscreanity 8y ago
You could also eat less to save money on a declining income but eventually you'll be eating so little that you won't have the energy to get up and eat. Such actions have been attempted by empires throughout history - Julius Caesar attempted to do something very similar and was assassinated for it.