4 ms·
I apologize for repeating myself, I don't think I'm being clear on what I'm trying to say. Let me give an illustrative example: Let's say I've got an 100% fair
by gweinberg 8y ago
I apologize for repeating myself, I don't think I'm being clear on what I'm trying to say. Let me give an illustrative example:
Let's say I've got an 100% fair coin, but I want to trick you into thinking it comes up heads more often than tails. The way I do this is wit a meta-experiment: I will have 1000 trials with up to 1000 flips each, but I stop the experiment whenever I have a majority of heads.
What we expect to find at the end is, I get about the same number of heads and tails in the whole meta-experiment. About 95% of the runs will have more heads than tails, but each of those runs will only have one extra head. The few runs where I did all 1000 flips will be ones where heads never had a majority, so they'll probably have lots of extra tails. Same number of heads and tails over all is the relevant result, 95% of runs had majority heads is bullshit intended to baffle you.
Nobody would be fooled by such nonsense, right?