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A truth table doesn't necessarily get you to the right answer. There are 3 doors I could pick, 3 doors Monty could pick, and 3 doors the prize could be behind.
by daveFNbuck 8y ago
A truth table doesn't necessarily get you to the right answer. There are 3 doors I could pick, 3 doors Monty could pick, and 3 doors the prize could be behind. If I make a truth table of all 27 possible combinations, there are 12 combinations where Monty doesn't choose the same door as the contestant or the prize. Of these 12 options, exactly 6 have the contestant choosing the right door and 6 have the contestant choosing the wrong door.
You can certainly create a different truth table that arrives at the correct answer, but the truth table approach does not help ensure you get to the right answer like the Bayesian approach does.
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- 13415 8y agoNo method on earth necessarily gives you the right answer to a problem. You first have to represent the problem correctly, of course. Check out Scenario 2 here https://medium.com/@ProfessorF/visualizing-the-solution-to-the-monty-hall-problem-bf4a08c8ed8f https://medium.com/@ProfessorF/visualizing-the-solution-to-t... for a correct tree.
- daveFNbuck 8y agoNeither method guarantees the right answer, but it's a lot easier to get it wrong with a truth table.
- 13415 8y agoMaybe you're right, I'm not fully convinced. I mentioned a full truth table/decision tree because a long time ago these gave me the insight why switching is the right solution in the standard formulation of the problem, and they also illustrate why the problem is a purely deductive/logical problem whose solution does not require any inductive inference. Then, to me it was a valuable lesson to learn that the Monty Hall problem does not reveal any perceived or real fundamental problem of probability theory.