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I’m awaiting the public disclosure of evidence of Khoshoggi’s murder. At the macro human level this is simply disgusting what the Saudis have done. At the mac

I’m awaiting the public disclosure of evidence of Khoshoggi’s murder. At the macro human level this is simply disgusting what the Saudis have done. At the macro geopolitical level this is a truly cringeworthy embarrassment for the Saudis. However, this is what happens when control of trillions of dollars of essential natural resources is at stake. I would remind Hacker News readers that millions were slaughtered in the 70’s by the Khmer Rouge for control with none of the massive cashflow and geopolitical influence stemming from it. In other words, the blood will flow to ensure continuity of control & flow of oil. Period. Just look at Saudi actions in Yemen slaughtering everyone with reckless abandon(mostly via proxy) as it represents a possible beachhead at bringing down the Saudi regime. Kind of like the Saudis in the role of the Germans at D-Day. Military sales to Saudi serve 2 purposes: 1) Saudi/GCC military contracts are padded heavily to act as platforms for massive kickbacks to GCC royal families and connected insiders. Military sales are cashflow for corrupt GCC royals and insiders. 2) Military sales to the GCC represent petro-dollar recycling to balance trade between GCC countries and their petro customers. Check out the Al Yamamah arms deal between UK/Saudi that started in the 1980’s. Journalists found proof of corruption but further publication was halted as a matter of national security due to pressure from the Saudis that would have cancelled deals and led to the layoffs of tens of thousands of high paying jobs. Realpolitik is not an easy issue. Selling military equipment to Saudi/GCC is a bad idea, but may be a less bad idea as they do have options waiting in the wings(Russia/China). Ultimately, I think Saudi Arabia will attempt to avoid becoming like the Shah/Iran post 1979 much as China has avoided becoming like Russia post 1991. Regardless of the volume of bloodletting, The Mossad/Israel was publicly embarrassed with an assassination it conducted in Dubai in 2010. I doubt the Saudis care as much about their international reputation as the Israelis.

Mediterraneo10 8y ago
> The Mossad/Israel was publicly embarrassed with an assassination it conducted in Dubai in 2010. Was it? So much of the news coverage of the Dubai assassination seemed to focus on how intricate the operation was and how it worked like clockwork, all very impressive. A team of spies spread out across Dubai, wearing disguises and even successfully dealing with unforeseen obstacles, seemed pretty romantic somehow, definitely more than a dissident just walking into his own country’s embassy and being killed there. And Israel was probably well aware of its agents being caught on CCTV, so the revelation of the operation was no embarrassment for the Mossad. On the other hand, I’m sure the Saudis wish that this whole episode could have passed unnoticed and that people would just believe Khashoggi left the embassy of his own accord.
- chriselles 8y ago
  I believe Israel was embarrassed. But Israel also has had a longstanding Donald Trump-esque view of not caring what other countries think. For example, Israel has done some really dodgy things with NZ passports, got caught with its hand in the proverbial cookie jar and was embarrassed politically. A few years later it did something similar again. So I think embarrassment is a question of personal/national perspective. From an operational standpoint, Israel may have permanently burned up to 2 dozen shooters and operational support personnel/facilitators from ever conducting external operations again. Those people take many years to vet, train, and trust. That's a lot of expensive chess pieces to remove one bishop or rook.
Natsu 8y ago
> I’m awaiting the public disclosure of evidence of Khoshoggi’s murder. Am I the only one who feels it's odd to so loudly declare that they have all this evidence... and then not let us see it? Maybe I'm just paranoid, but I have this feeling that means we'll never see it and the fact that we didn't will get memory holed later. I honestly don't know what to make of this whole situation. I obviously don't like the idea that someone has been murdered and dismembered, but I get the feeling that a lot more is in play here than I can even pretend to understand because there are a lot of people who want to take over the area and resources, so I don't know what information we can even trust.
- chriselles 8y ago
  If I had to guess, the Turks and/or US have signals intelligence of the murder in audio/video/sensor form that incriminates the Saudis. Sometimes hard to tell with diplomatic incidents like this whether its publicly disclosed or not. It was disclosed publicly and very very quickly in Dubai 2010. In that case I think the speed, comprehensiveness, and thoroughness of the surveillance disclosure was a shock to casual security observers.
  - Natsu 8y ago
    > If I had to guess That's the thing though, we have to guess. We don't have the evidence and many of us might not be able to understand it if we did. This wouldn't be such a problem, except these incidents tend to end up being used as justification for military actions to murder more people. And on that point, I sincerely hope to be proven completely and utterly wrong by future events.
    - chriselles 8y ago
      What makes it more than just a guess is both Turkey and the US disclosing that they possess evidence of the murder. Possibly a geopolitical poker bluff, but unlikely something two countries would openly state(not just leak) if untrue.
      - 8y ago

Mediterraneo10 8y ago

> The Mossad/Israel was publicly embarrassed with an assassination it conducted in Dubai in 2010. Was it? So much of the news coverage of the Dubai assassination seemed to focus on how intricate the operation was and how it worked like clockwork, all very impressive. A team of spies spread out across Dubai, wearing disguises and even successfully dealing with unforeseen obstacles, seemed pretty romantic somehow, definitely more than a dissident just walking into his own country’s embassy and being killed there. And Israel was probably well aware of its agents being caught on CCTV, so the revelation of the operation was no embarrassment for the Mossad. On the other hand, I’m sure the Saudis wish that this whole episode could have passed unnoticed and that people would just believe Khashoggi left the embassy of his own accord.

chriselles 8y ago
I believe Israel was embarrassed. But Israel also has had a longstanding Donald Trump-esque view of not caring what other countries think. For example, Israel has done some really dodgy things with NZ passports, got caught with its hand in the proverbial cookie jar and was embarrassed politically. A few years later it did something similar again. So I think embarrassment is a question of personal/national perspective. From an operational standpoint, Israel may have permanently burned up to 2 dozen shooters and operational support personnel/facilitators from ever conducting external operations again. Those people take many years to vet, train, and trust. That's a lot of expensive chess pieces to remove one bishop or rook.

Natsu 8y ago

> I’m awaiting the public disclosure of evidence of Khoshoggi’s murder. Am I the only one who feels it's odd to so loudly declare that they have all this evidence... and then not let us see it? Maybe I'm just paranoid, but I have this feeling that means we'll never see it and the fact that we didn't will get memory holed later. I honestly don't know what to make of this whole situation. I obviously don't like the idea that someone has been murdered and dismembered, but I get the feeling that a lot more is in play here than I can even pretend to understand because there are a lot of people who want to take over the area and resources, so I don't know what information we can even trust.

chriselles 8y ago
If I had to guess, the Turks and/or US have signals intelligence of the murder in audio/video/sensor form that incriminates the Saudis. Sometimes hard to tell with diplomatic incidents like this whether its publicly disclosed or not. It was disclosed publicly and very very quickly in Dubai 2010. In that case I think the speed, comprehensiveness, and thoroughness of the surveillance disclosure was a shock to casual security observers.
- Natsu 8y ago
  > If I had to guess That's the thing though, we have to guess. We don't have the evidence and many of us might not be able to understand it if we did. This wouldn't be such a problem, except these incidents tend to end up being used as justification for military actions to murder more people. And on that point, I sincerely hope to be proven completely and utterly wrong by future events.
  - chriselles 8y ago
    What makes it more than just a guess is both Turkey and the US disclosing that they possess evidence of the murder. Possibly a geopolitical poker bluff, but unlikely something two countries would openly state(not just leak) if untrue.
    - 8y ago