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If you have a competition where everyone flips coins, and you are eliminated as soon as you flip a tail, and you win, it's likely that you will also win the nex
by CamTin 8y ago
If you have a competition where everyone flips coins, and you are eliminated as soon as you flip a tail, and you win, it's likely that you will also win the next time. This is not because the events are not independent, but because you are always unlikely to win.
Likewise, if you get a royal flush in a hand of poker, you probably won't get as good a hand next time. Again, this is not because the deals aren't independent events, but because it is always unlikely to get a royal flush.
- astroalex 8y agoGood points. > Likewise, if you get a royal flush in a hand of poker, you probably won't get as good a hand next time. I understand what you mean, but I think that most people who haven't taken a probability class would misinterpret this. A sentence of the form "if [this] then [that]" is usually meant to express dependence. Don't you think that most people would interpret your sentence as: "Because I got a royal flush this time, I probably won't get one next time."? I think the average pop-sci article reader will get confused by this.
- leetcrew 8y agoit's really hard to map subtle statements about probability to natural English sentences. pretty much any non-awkward formulation of that sentence is going to admit misinterpretations.
- antidesitter 8y ago> it's likely that you will also win the next time. This is... because you are always unlikely to win. Did you mean to write “it’s not likely that you will also win next time”?
- CamTin 8y agoI did. Unfortunately the editing window is closed. Thank you.