7 ms·

On Thursday a rocket failed. Three humans remain on the ISS. What’s next?

68 points by okket 8y ago

varshithr 8y ago
The upcoming Crew Dragon and Starliner are more important now than ever.
- rbanffy 8y ago
  They continue to be as important as they were on Monday. None will be flight-ready before this incident is fully evaluated, corrections in process/design applied and the system is cleared to fly again. All safety mechanisms worked as designed and the crew landed safely. The astronauts on the ISS still have their Soyuz if they really need to come down. Nothing changed. Soyuz is still incredibly reliable. It's a bit old, a bit expensive (Crew Dragon, flying on reused Falcon 9's, will be much cheaper) and very cramped for 3 astronauts, but it does the job and has been doing it for what, 40 years?
jon889 8y ago
I feel like too big deal is being made of this, as if people are about to suggest that we should shut down all human space flight on the Soyuz for good. The emergency systems worked exactly as they were meant to. There is risk in going to space but it's worth it, the astronauts know what they're doing and what could happen. Everyone needs to calm down, wait for the investigation and then almost certainly get back to putting people in space.
- User23 8y ago
  Agreed. Every Astronaut and Cosmonaut is well aware of the safety (danger?) statistics and yet there is still a wait list.
- eps 8y ago
  > Everyone needs to calm down That's just Arstechnica and Eric Berger. His space flight coverage including the Rocket Report is generally very good, but it always had this rather noticeable anti-Russian slant - every failure is yet another complete disaster, Russian space industry is a company of hacks, rockets are held together by sheer luck, etc.
  - warp_factor 8y ago
    it is a shame though because the soyuz rocket is probably the most reliable rocket ever so far. The huge amount of launches provides also a statistical significance on the failure rate. Yes, some parts of it date back to the soviet union, but it is a very reliable rocket http://www.starsem.com/soyuz/log.htm http://www.starsem.com/soyuz/log.htm
    - toyg 8y ago
      The fact alone that it’s still used so much, more than 30 years from design, is testament to its quality. The much-celebrated Shuttle, in the meantime, is dead.
      - iamthirsty 8y ago
        The Space Shuttle is the most advanced and capable flying machine ever created by humans — it’s just too expensive and overqualified to send up to the ISS for routine missions, compared to what service the Russians can provide for relatively cheap.
        sbradford26 8y ago
        One of the comments on the article actually covered that the space shuttle was not qualified to shuttle crew to the ISS. It ran off of fuel cells that could not be fully shut off. So the shuttle had a maximum mission length even if connected to the space station of 17 days. Whereas the soyuz capsule is qualified for 200 days. Which means that even if the shuttle took a crew member up, they had to have a spot on a soyuz capsule to get back.
        acqq 8y ago
        > it’s just too expensive It never reached the point in being worth using it, compared to the alternatives. At least in the use scenarios publicly known.
        deelowe 8y ago
- mikejb 8y ago
  I agree. Luckily, Soyuz will likely fly again. The issue will be identified, and procedures will be out in place to avoid it in the future. Accidents happened in the past, accidents will happen again. Best we can do is make sure we don't repeat mistakes and prepare for things we don't know can go wrong. I'm just hoping that it's a unknown failure mode. Worst case would (in my opinion) be human error during manufacturing (again).
- grecy 8y ago
  Agree. Even here in Africa it's a headline story on the BBC World Service. The fact this is the first time ever that system has been used on the Soyuz speaks volumes for it's reliability. They'll figure out what happened, and the entire system will get safer as a result.
  - foxyv 8y ago
    It's been used before during a pad fire. I think this is the second time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soyuz_7K-ST_No._16L https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soyuz_7K-ST_No._16L
netsharc 8y ago
To be off-topic, news of the Soyuz feels like the news we should be reading in 2018: space travel instead of news of all the stupid politics and destruction of the planet. Where we can worry about the spacefarers instead of what next stupid thing will come out of the White House. It feels like it's news from a parallel universe.
- RodericDay 8y ago
  Spoken like someone who assumes nobody in this forum is affected by border separations, global warming, Brasil elections, Saudi influence in politics, nazis crashing their cars into anti-nazi protesters, abortion legislation, grandparents brainwashed with memes, etc.
- rimunroe 8y ago
  It’s certainly less upsetting, but I don’t think we should just try to avoid reading about the very real & very bad things that are happening when we have some power to address them.
  - simion314 8y ago
    The only power citizens have is in the election day, all the others days what can you do? Maybe go on the streets and protests but that almost never works. IMO, we should read less political news, maybe once a week, if something major happens we will hear about it.
    - AnarchoYeasty 8y ago
      Protests where you stand peacefully on the sidewalk chanting how upset you are doesn't work. Protests designed to shut cities and the economy down do. You have to make it hurt for the elite otherwise they don't care what you do chanting on the weekend.
    - icebraining 8y ago
      You can also donate time and/or money to those running - see for example: https://techsolidarity.org/resources/great_slate.html https://techsolidarity.org/resources/great_slate.html
Dowwie 8y ago
A well-trained crew and ground control navigated a rapidly evolving, very dangerous situation enough to try again another day. This launch failed its mission yet successfully navigated a scenario that human beings are ill-equipped to handle on their own. Aborting mission and returning the crew to safety was a great accomplishment.
pimmen 8y ago
The Soyuz has an exemplary track record. Sure, there were a few accidents 50 years ago during the Soviet space program that were very bad, but it has transported people to and form the ISS for such a long time astronauts swear by it. This is almost like making a big fuzz about whether or not it's safe to drive after hearing about a highway crash. Yes, there are risks, but even more so than with driving the crew knew what they were doing. And they are even more aware of historical space related accidents than most people are.
- warp_factor 8y ago
  I agree completely with you. But you are picking on the medias that use it to "clickbait" and sell a narrative. Facts and reliability don't mater. It has been transformed into sensationalism and into a "USA vs Russia" narrative.
netsec_burn 8y ago
This comment is meta, i.e. not strictly related to the content.. but looking over the HN comments, I find a majority is pro-Russian with the exception of one downvoted comment noting accurately that the US equivalent of cheap spaceflight (Crew Dragon) is important for these missions to the ISS. This is just speculation, but I wonder if the issues that Reddit identified with the campaigns by Russian entities may be as far reaching as YC. The content of the comments is interesting too, attacking the reputation of journalist.
- jchb 8y ago
  Ok, but if this was part of a campaign by a Russian entity, then you would probably find some proof of that in the comment histories of the people that posted these "pro-Russian" comments? Looking at those accounts, most of them are registered several years ago, and this is their first comment that is Russia-related. Sure, this could be a very sophisticated campaign and these accounts could have been cultivated for multiple years for this purpose. But isn't it more likely these people are just normal Russians (or non-Russians tired of the anti-Russian angle in western media) that want to defend the reputation of the Soyuz? Disclaimer: I am not particularly pro-Russian, but I have a Putin calendar on my office wall. Mostly because it ticks people off ;)
  - netsec_burn 8y ago
    Some accounts are multiple years old and difficult to discern content-wise https://www.reddit.com/wiki/suspiciousaccounts https://www.reddit.com/wiki/suspiciousaccounts I'm also indifferent one way or the other, both the Falcon and Soyuz are impressive vehicles.
- baldfat 8y ago
  Well I took the time to read and you could also read them as Pro-Human Space Flight? There has always been competing views on HN on the value of human space flight vs unmanned space travel. Personally I am pro-human space flights mainly due to how it captures the world. Space-X's stated goal of turning rocket launches into common events like a airplane taking off has pretty much happened. You have two humans also die and it is headline news around the world. I can't wait till we get someone back on the moon personally.
sajithdilshan 8y ago
Correct me if I'm wrong. As humans even though we are technologically far advanced than we were 10 years ago, I suppose rocket technology and space exploration areas have not been caught up with the latest technological advancements. This is the perfect time for another space race. But the only problem is that I can only think of China as a contender.
- sbradford26 8y ago
  Launch vehicles are similar to commercial aviation. They are very risk averse, they do not adopt new technologies nearly as quickly. There is a good reason for this, they let other industries vet technologies so it is known to be reliable by the time aerospace uses it. Also another consideration is the additional radiation concerns in space. Newer processors are more susceptible to single event upsets. So more processing power needs to be devoted to error checking or additional weight is necessary to rad harden the component.
- SECProto 8y ago
  Not to sound like a fanboy, but I think SpaceX would be a strong contender in any space race. Non-governmental, but very much pushing boundaries. edit: Hm, I've never been downvoted on HN before. Care to explain why? I think my comment is adding to the discussion, in that OP was speculating only China could possibly be a contender in a space race. Certainly, SpaceX developing propulsive landing and reuse of the first stage is pretty game changing - liquid flyback boosters had only been proposed before, never actually created & used. SpaceX's ongoing experiments with fairing return leave me optimistic that it will work out fairly soon, too.

68 points by okket 8y ago

varshithr 8y ago

The upcoming Crew Dragon and Starliner are more important now than ever.

rbanffy 8y ago
They continue to be as important as they were on Monday. None will be flight-ready before this incident is fully evaluated, corrections in process/design applied and the system is cleared to fly again. All safety mechanisms worked as designed and the crew landed safely. The astronauts on the ISS still have their Soyuz if they really need to come down. Nothing changed. Soyuz is still incredibly reliable. It's a bit old, a bit expensive (Crew Dragon, flying on reused Falcon 9's, will be much cheaper) and very cramped for 3 astronauts, but it does the job and has been doing it for what, 40 years?

jon889 8y ago

I feel like too big deal is being made of this, as if people are about to suggest that we should shut down all human space flight on the Soyuz for good. The emergency systems worked exactly as they were meant to. There is risk in going to space but it's worth it, the astronauts know what they're doing and what could happen. Everyone needs to calm down, wait for the investigation and then almost certainly get back to putting people in space.

User23 8y ago
Agreed. Every Astronaut and Cosmonaut is well aware of the safety (danger?) statistics and yet there is still a wait list.
eps 8y ago
> Everyone needs to calm down That's just Arstechnica and Eric Berger. His space flight coverage including the Rocket Report is generally very good, but it always had this rather noticeable anti-Russian slant - every failure is yet another complete disaster, Russian space industry is a company of hacks, rockets are held together by sheer luck, etc.
- warp_factor 8y ago
  it is a shame though because the soyuz rocket is probably the most reliable rocket ever so far. The huge amount of launches provides also a statistical significance on the failure rate. Yes, some parts of it date back to the soviet union, but it is a very reliable rocket http://www.starsem.com/soyuz/log.htm http://www.starsem.com/soyuz/log.htm
  - toyg 8y ago
    The fact alone that it’s still used so much, more than 30 years from design, is testament to its quality. The much-celebrated Shuttle, in the meantime, is dead.
    - iamthirsty 8y ago
      The Space Shuttle is the most advanced and capable flying machine ever created by humans — it’s just too expensive and overqualified to send up to the ISS for routine missions, compared to what service the Russians can provide for relatively cheap.
      - sbradford26 8y ago
        One of the comments on the article actually covered that the space shuttle was not qualified to shuttle crew to the ISS. It ran off of fuel cells that could not be fully shut off. So the shuttle had a maximum mission length even if connected to the space station of 17 days. Whereas the soyuz capsule is qualified for 200 days. Which means that even if the shuttle took a crew member up, they had to have a spot on a soyuz capsule to get back.
      - acqq 8y ago
        > it’s just too expensive It never reached the point in being worth using it, compared to the alternatives. At least in the use scenarios publicly known.
        deelowe 8y ago
mikejb 8y ago
I agree. Luckily, Soyuz will likely fly again. The issue will be identified, and procedures will be out in place to avoid it in the future. Accidents happened in the past, accidents will happen again. Best we can do is make sure we don't repeat mistakes and prepare for things we don't know can go wrong. I'm just hoping that it's a unknown failure mode. Worst case would (in my opinion) be human error during manufacturing (again).
grecy 8y ago
Agree. Even here in Africa it's a headline story on the BBC World Service. The fact this is the first time ever that system has been used on the Soyuz speaks volumes for it's reliability. They'll figure out what happened, and the entire system will get safer as a result.
- foxyv 8y ago
  It's been used before during a pad fire. I think this is the second time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soyuz_7K-ST_No._16L https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soyuz_7K-ST_No._16L

netsharc 8y ago

To be off-topic, news of the Soyuz feels like the news we should be reading in 2018: space travel instead of news of all the stupid politics and destruction of the planet. Where we can worry about the spacefarers instead of what next stupid thing will come out of the White House. It feels like it's news from a parallel universe.

RodericDay 8y ago
Spoken like someone who assumes nobody in this forum is affected by border separations, global warming, Brasil elections, Saudi influence in politics, nazis crashing their cars into anti-nazi protesters, abortion legislation, grandparents brainwashed with memes, etc.
rimunroe 8y ago
It’s certainly less upsetting, but I don’t think we should just try to avoid reading about the very real & very bad things that are happening when we have some power to address them.
- simion314 8y ago
  The only power citizens have is in the election day, all the others days what can you do? Maybe go on the streets and protests but that almost never works. IMO, we should read less political news, maybe once a week, if something major happens we will hear about it.
  - AnarchoYeasty 8y ago
    Protests where you stand peacefully on the sidewalk chanting how upset you are doesn't work. Protests designed to shut cities and the economy down do. You have to make it hurt for the elite otherwise they don't care what you do chanting on the weekend.
  - icebraining 8y ago
    You can also donate time and/or money to those running - see for example: https://techsolidarity.org/resources/great_slate.html https://techsolidarity.org/resources/great_slate.html

Dowwie 8y ago

A well-trained crew and ground control navigated a rapidly evolving, very dangerous situation enough to try again another day. This launch failed its mission yet successfully navigated a scenario that human beings are ill-equipped to handle on their own. Aborting mission and returning the crew to safety was a great accomplishment.

pimmen 8y ago

The Soyuz has an exemplary track record. Sure, there were a few accidents 50 years ago during the Soviet space program that were very bad, but it has transported people to and form the ISS for such a long time astronauts swear by it. This is almost like making a big fuzz about whether or not it's safe to drive after hearing about a highway crash. Yes, there are risks, but even more so than with driving the crew knew what they were doing. And they are even more aware of historical space related accidents than most people are.

warp_factor 8y ago
I agree completely with you. But you are picking on the medias that use it to "clickbait" and sell a narrative. Facts and reliability don't mater. It has been transformed into sensationalism and into a "USA vs Russia" narrative.

netsec_burn 8y ago

This comment is meta, i.e. not strictly related to the content.. but looking over the HN comments, I find a majority is pro-Russian with the exception of one downvoted comment noting accurately that the US equivalent of cheap spaceflight (Crew Dragon) is important for these missions to the ISS. This is just speculation, but I wonder if the issues that Reddit identified with the campaigns by Russian entities may be as far reaching as YC. The content of the comments is interesting too, attacking the reputation of journalist.

jchb 8y ago
Ok, but if this was part of a campaign by a Russian entity, then you would probably find some proof of that in the comment histories of the people that posted these "pro-Russian" comments? Looking at those accounts, most of them are registered several years ago, and this is their first comment that is Russia-related. Sure, this could be a very sophisticated campaign and these accounts could have been cultivated for multiple years for this purpose. But isn't it more likely these people are just normal Russians (or non-Russians tired of the anti-Russian angle in western media) that want to defend the reputation of the Soyuz? Disclaimer: I am not particularly pro-Russian, but I have a Putin calendar on my office wall. Mostly because it ticks people off ;)
- netsec_burn 8y ago
  Some accounts are multiple years old and difficult to discern content-wise https://www.reddit.com/wiki/suspiciousaccounts https://www.reddit.com/wiki/suspiciousaccounts I'm also indifferent one way or the other, both the Falcon and Soyuz are impressive vehicles.
baldfat 8y ago
Well I took the time to read and you could also read them as Pro-Human Space Flight? There has always been competing views on HN on the value of human space flight vs unmanned space travel. Personally I am pro-human space flights mainly due to how it captures the world. Space-X's stated goal of turning rocket launches into common events like a airplane taking off has pretty much happened. You have two humans also die and it is headline news around the world. I can't wait till we get someone back on the moon personally.

sajithdilshan 8y ago

Correct me if I'm wrong. As humans even though we are technologically far advanced than we were 10 years ago, I suppose rocket technology and space exploration areas have not been caught up with the latest technological advancements. This is the perfect time for another space race. But the only problem is that I can only think of China as a contender.

sbradford26 8y ago
Launch vehicles are similar to commercial aviation. They are very risk averse, they do not adopt new technologies nearly as quickly. There is a good reason for this, they let other industries vet technologies so it is known to be reliable by the time aerospace uses it. Also another consideration is the additional radiation concerns in space. Newer processors are more susceptible to single event upsets. So more processing power needs to be devoted to error checking or additional weight is necessary to rad harden the component.
SECProto 8y ago
Not to sound like a fanboy, but I think SpaceX would be a strong contender in any space race. Non-governmental, but very much pushing boundaries. edit: Hm, I've never been downvoted on HN before. Care to explain why? I think my comment is adding to the discussion, in that OP was speculating only China could possibly be a contender in a space race. Certainly, SpaceX developing propulsive landing and reuse of the first stage is pretty game changing - liquid flyback boosters had only been proposed before, never actually created & used. SpaceX's ongoing experiments with fairing return leave me optimistic that it will work out fairly soon, too.