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> People can’t seem to figure out why inflation is so low with employment so high. Because "inflation" only exists in the sense that someone has arbitrarily de
by saosebastiao 8y ago
> People can’t seem to figure out why inflation is so low with employment so high.
Because "inflation" only exists in the sense that someone has arbitrarily decided what to measure, how to measure it, how to add or remove items from lists, and how to weight everything...and the cranky codger economists that decided to create the index as it is are obviously not experiencing price inflation.
It is not uncommon for an older person who is 30 years into his career and 25 years into a mortgage to be paying less than 5% of his income in housing costs. Recent college grads in this economy have faced what could probably be called hyperinflation...my own rent prices have increased 3x from less than a decade ago, and while I'm relatively well off, rent is still 30% of my income. For some of my peers, it's closer to 50%. If rent goes up 4 percent again, some of those people will have outpaced the CPI on just their housing alone!
Young people have seen their health care expenses skyrocket as well. Old people, thanks to various legislative ways to spread costs around, haven't. Same goes for education: older people don't need it anymore, young people are breaking their backs trying to get it.
I think it would be fair to say that in terms of what the working population is experiencing, our official inflation figures are severely understated. Inflation is legitimately hard to measure. The fact that we take a handful of metrics that only a few people can barely understand, and we base our entire monetary policy off of it should be alarming to everyone. But it's not, and it won't change until long after it has broken an entire generation of voters.
- repolfx 8y agoHedonic adjustment as it's called and the weird games governments play over housing is a part of it, but not as impactful as you'd think (I looked into this some time ago). There's unfortunately a simple reason why costs like housing and education can explode without triggering inflation - if everyone reallocates their spending to these two areas, they are buying less in other areas. Less demand = lower prices. That is, a rise in prices in some areas does not imply inflation goes up even if those areas are very important. That said I do think the "mystery" of where the inflation went is easier explained in other ways. It's not housing or education necessarily. It's debt and stocks. The bulk of the money poured into investment assets that aren't counted in inflation stats at all.