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I am not an economist but I think we’re just measuring inflation wrong: anecdotal, but I have noticed for my peers housing and education is now expensive to the

I am not an economist but I think we’re just measuring inflation wrong: anecdotal, but I have noticed for my peers housing and education is now expensive to the point where there aren’t many dollars left to participate in other economic activity.

virmundi 8y ago
I’m waiting for housing to drop in price over the next few years. The boomers are dying. Their houses, and I mean all those investment properties as well as their private homes, will hit the market when their kids don’t want them. The price of education will only decrease when more people take up manual labor jobs. You can get paid 24$ here in Florida if you’re willing to work on a ladder.
- fiter 8y ago
  It looks like the US population is expected to increase [0]. If the boomers are dying, it looks like we're going to have people to replace them. [0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/183481/united-states-population-projection/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/183481/united-states-pop...
  - toasterlovin 8y ago
    In theory housing prices could still go down if the people replacing dying boomers have less money to spend on housing.
    - toasterlovin 8y ago
      Just to follow up on this thought: in theory this would not be a departure from the historical norm unless boomers are more wealthy in comparison to incoming people than previous generations of older folks were.
- codebook 8y ago
  It won't happen within a few years. Boomers are still relatively healthy thanks to improved health care. If you count on that, then you should expect at least decades more.
- sharkweek 8y ago
  Friend skipped college and joined the electricians union during the 2007-8 crash. Started his own business three years ago and is already charging essentially whatever he wants as most electricians are old and retiring. He barely knows any electricians our age.
  - kryogen1c 8y ago
    I knew a man that joined the Navy because he advanced so fast as an electrician that in his early 20s he had people working for him that had been in the industry for 30 years and he was tired of being hassled by them. I knew another man that started working at a shipyard out of high school as a rigger (guy that lifts stuff, doesn't get much more blue collar), and in a couple years was supervising the assembly of Warships making thousands of dollars a week - SV eat your heart out. This is something Mike Rowe has been advocating for years. Not only is college not cheap, even if it was free it's a worse option in every way for a lot of people. https://www.forbes.com/sites/kathycaprino/2018/08/30/dirtiest-man-on-tv-mike-rowe-takes-on-americas-skills-gap-problem/#7c2432ba6da5 https://www.forbes.com/sites/kathycaprino/2018/08/30/dirties...
    - hkmurakami 8y ago
      Unfortunately it’s not just about the money. In many circles of our society, non white collar work is seen as inferior and lower class. This stigma needs to be lifted before we can expect more people to enter these trades.
      - lotsofpulp 8y ago
        The stigma will automatically be lifted once people see non white collar workers living in the nice parts of town sending children to the nice schools and generally having a nicer quality of life.
        repolfx 8y ago
        Maybe. Or maybe it'll just cause frustration, resentment and denial when people realise the expensive degrees that were supposed to confer on them a superior intellect and lifestyle don't seem to have worked.
pmiller2 8y ago
Let’s not forget medical care.
- pas 8y ago
  Included in inflation measurement ( https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09132018.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09132018.htm ), but alas it's not perfect, because employer paid portion is increasing, but it's not counted. (A methodology change can be easily argued for, the BEA had a healthcare expeditures price index, but it stopped updating it in 2014.)
tjr225 8y ago
I'm a systems engineer in Seattle. Thanks to my student loans I can't afford a house, I can't afford to have a child with my wife - thankfully my employer is kind enough to provide health insurance or else I'd probably be screwed there, too. Anyone who thinks this economy is booming is kidding themselves.
- saosebastiao 8y ago
  It's booming for some people. You and I are not those people.
  - ataturk 8y ago
    Uh, that also sounds kind of entitled. I think people talk themselves out of easy solutions. If you really want to have children, there are plenty of ways to go about affording that decision. It's called "making a sacrifice" which I watch a lot of narcissistic types having problems with. Maybe learn some Zen? Take your ego out of the equation and see where it takes you.
- cylinder 8y ago
  We think the economy is booming because these costs are increasing (inflation). Stupid. Same with GDP. A 50 car pileup will increase GDP!
  - ibeckermayer 8y ago
    Can you please explain this to me in more detail? Costs inflating causes economists to think the economy is booming, how? Is it based on how they measure “economic boom”? Why would a 50 car pile up “increase GDP”? I’ve heard similar criticism of how we measure GDP, but don’t understand precisely what the problem is.
    - daxorid 8y ago
      1. Most central bank economists have abandoned the standard of price stability, and now target a specific CPI number. The Fed targets 2%, for example. 2. A 50 car pileup will employ EMS personnel, hospital staff, tow truck drivers, road cleanup crews, etc. Then later, new car assembly, transportation, DMV workers, and car salesmen. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window
patfla 8y ago
There's been plenty of inflation in sectors like education and healthcare except the government, conveniently, doesn't count that as 'core.'
- pas 8y ago
  Inflation is pretty well measured (and "core" - which is a term not used by BLS - includes healthcare, education but does not include food and energy: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09132018.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09132018.htm ), but there are a lot of crackpots out there, for example read this detailed rebuttal of one such: https://moneymaven.io/economonitor/emerging-markets/deconstructing-shadowstats-why-is-it-so-loved-by-its-followers-but-scorned-by-economists-DWhA0PwhhkOHkzTLLeCvpQ/ https://moneymaven.io/economonitor/emerging-markets/deconstr...

virmundi 8y ago

I’m waiting for housing to drop in price over the next few years. The boomers are dying. Their houses, and I mean all those investment properties as well as their private homes, will hit the market when their kids don’t want them. The price of education will only decrease when more people take up manual labor jobs. You can get paid 24$ here in Florida if you’re willing to work on a ladder.

fiter 8y ago
It looks like the US population is expected to increase [0]. If the boomers are dying, it looks like we're going to have people to replace them. [0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/183481/united-states-population-projection/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/183481/united-states-pop...
- toasterlovin 8y ago
  In theory housing prices could still go down if the people replacing dying boomers have less money to spend on housing.
  - toasterlovin 8y ago
    Just to follow up on this thought: in theory this would not be a departure from the historical norm unless boomers are more wealthy in comparison to incoming people than previous generations of older folks were.
codebook 8y ago
It won't happen within a few years. Boomers are still relatively healthy thanks to improved health care. If you count on that, then you should expect at least decades more.
sharkweek 8y ago
Friend skipped college and joined the electricians union during the 2007-8 crash. Started his own business three years ago and is already charging essentially whatever he wants as most electricians are old and retiring. He barely knows any electricians our age.
- kryogen1c 8y ago
  I knew a man that joined the Navy because he advanced so fast as an electrician that in his early 20s he had people working for him that had been in the industry for 30 years and he was tired of being hassled by them. I knew another man that started working at a shipyard out of high school as a rigger (guy that lifts stuff, doesn't get much more blue collar), and in a couple years was supervising the assembly of Warships making thousands of dollars a week - SV eat your heart out. This is something Mike Rowe has been advocating for years. Not only is college not cheap, even if it was free it's a worse option in every way for a lot of people. https://www.forbes.com/sites/kathycaprino/2018/08/30/dirtiest-man-on-tv-mike-rowe-takes-on-americas-skills-gap-problem/#7c2432ba6da5 https://www.forbes.com/sites/kathycaprino/2018/08/30/dirties...
  - hkmurakami 8y ago
    Unfortunately it’s not just about the money. In many circles of our society, non white collar work is seen as inferior and lower class. This stigma needs to be lifted before we can expect more people to enter these trades.
    - lotsofpulp 8y ago
      The stigma will automatically be lifted once people see non white collar workers living in the nice parts of town sending children to the nice schools and generally having a nicer quality of life.
      - repolfx 8y ago
        Maybe. Or maybe it'll just cause frustration, resentment and denial when people realise the expensive degrees that were supposed to confer on them a superior intellect and lifestyle don't seem to have worked.

pmiller2 8y ago

Let’s not forget medical care.

pas 8y ago
Included in inflation measurement ( https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09132018.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09132018.htm ), but alas it's not perfect, because employer paid portion is increasing, but it's not counted. (A methodology change can be easily argued for, the BEA had a healthcare expeditures price index, but it stopped updating it in 2014.)

tjr225 8y ago

I'm a systems engineer in Seattle. Thanks to my student loans I can't afford a house, I can't afford to have a child with my wife - thankfully my employer is kind enough to provide health insurance or else I'd probably be screwed there, too. Anyone who thinks this economy is booming is kidding themselves.

saosebastiao 8y ago
It's booming for some people. You and I are not those people.
- ataturk 8y ago
  Uh, that also sounds kind of entitled. I think people talk themselves out of easy solutions. If you really want to have children, there are plenty of ways to go about affording that decision. It's called "making a sacrifice" which I watch a lot of narcissistic types having problems with. Maybe learn some Zen? Take your ego out of the equation and see where it takes you.
cylinder 8y ago
We think the economy is booming because these costs are increasing (inflation). Stupid. Same with GDP. A 50 car pileup will increase GDP!
- ibeckermayer 8y ago
  Can you please explain this to me in more detail? Costs inflating causes economists to think the economy is booming, how? Is it based on how they measure “economic boom”? Why would a 50 car pile up “increase GDP”? I’ve heard similar criticism of how we measure GDP, but don’t understand precisely what the problem is.
  - daxorid 8y ago
    1. Most central bank economists have abandoned the standard of price stability, and now target a specific CPI number. The Fed targets 2%, for example. 2. A 50 car pileup will employ EMS personnel, hospital staff, tow truck drivers, road cleanup crews, etc. Then later, new car assembly, transportation, DMV workers, and car salesmen. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window

patfla 8y ago

There's been plenty of inflation in sectors like education and healthcare except the government, conveniently, doesn't count that as 'core.'

pas 8y ago
Inflation is pretty well measured (and "core" - which is a term not used by BLS - includes healthcare, education but does not include food and energy: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09132018.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09132018.htm ), but there are a lot of crackpots out there, for example read this detailed rebuttal of one such: https://moneymaven.io/economonitor/emerging-markets/deconstructing-shadowstats-why-is-it-so-loved-by-its-followers-but-scorned-by-economists-DWhA0PwhhkOHkzTLLeCvpQ/ https://moneymaven.io/economonitor/emerging-markets/deconstr...