4 ms·
Ponzi Scheme = the top takes the cream and leaves others to deal with the rotting milk. A potential bad scenario example is...Uber. Stratospheric valuations tha
by dunnodonna 8y ago
Ponzi Scheme = the top takes the cream and leaves others to deal with the rotting milk. A potential bad scenario example is...Uber. Stratospheric valuations that will offer excellent payoffs to most investors at IPO but by the time public markets come in, the top value has already been actualized and the narrative "it's a giant market" collapses once the reality that it has been achieved through high CACs and unsustainable cash flow levels.
Howard Marks - a bond investor - puts it well. If you are a professional investor you cannot afford to buy into overpriced stocks because by definition they have already topped. The basic unit here is the "buy low sell high" concept. This is why seed and Series A has been most attractive to VCs - equity is cheapest, if you invest in the right companies.
Tech stock and private tech is overvalued as far as the public buy side is concerned. This has been absorbed because the market is doing well. Private tech isn't going public for this exact reason: the public demand isn't meeting the private valuations. This is bound to crash at some point, most likely when the leading companies (uber, air bnb) are put under the microscope.
I don't know what will happen to all these companies flush with cash. They could be in business for years, even decades.