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Maybe this incident will open up the ISS schedule to allow SpaceX to do their DM-1 test flight sooner.

Klathmon 8y ago
NASA doesn't normally push timelines up like that. They aren't "holding back" SpaceX, the validation, testing, and scheduling mostly has little to do with others, and more to do with validating SpaceX alone.
- azernik 8y ago
  The latest messaging was actually exactly this - that they had a milestone of readiness for DM-1 set for December, but that launch couldn't happen until January because of ISS docking schedule availability. It's not a big difference, but it could shave off a few weeks on the margins.
  - Klathmon 8y ago
    Thats fair! I just keep seeing a lot of comments whenever something happens about how "SpaceX might get to launch sooner", and it kinda annoys me because there's a pretty well set schedule and they aren't going to cut corners just because an opportunity arose. You are right though that scheduling might let this move up a bit.
    - azernik 8y ago
      Yeah, poking around this thread I'm also seeing people underestimating the lead time required for any changes to the CCP timeline.
- PopeDotNinja 8y ago
  What about the Chinese? They've launched people into space.
  - jpatokal 8y ago
    The Chinese are excluded from the ISS. Their Tianzhou spacecraft is a direct Soyuz descendant, so it might be possible to dock it to the ISS, but this was not a part of the plan so it hasn't been designed for it, much less tested. Plus I also don't see the Trump administration asking China for help anytime soon...
    - mikejb 8y ago
      The US would collaborate with China on this if it would make financial sense. It could even be an opportunity to straight things out a bit. That being said, I agree that it's not going to happen. First, Tianzhou is currently cargo-only, for which there are enough alternatives. Second, the US is close to getting back their own human access to space (through Boeing and SpaceX), and that would probably be ready before sufficient restructuring & testing on Tianzhou is completed. Edit: Shenzhou is the human rated version of Tianzhou, so the main question would be whether it can dock with the ISS. (There's not just the dock itself that has to fit, but there's additional limitation on what kind of maneuverability system can be used close to the ISS). Also, the next Shenzhou flight was originally scheduled for 2018 and got delayed to 2020 - so this is highly unlikely going to be an option (No Mark-Watney-style rescue is required unless the docked Soyuz modules are 'grounded' as well)

NASA doesn't normally push timelines up like that. They aren't "holding back" SpaceX, the validation, testing, and scheduling mostly has little to do with others, and more to do with validating SpaceX alone.

azernik 8y ago
The latest messaging was actually exactly this - that they had a milestone of readiness for DM-1 set for December, but that launch couldn't happen until January because of ISS docking schedule availability. It's not a big difference, but it could shave off a few weeks on the margins.
- Klathmon 8y ago
  Thats fair! I just keep seeing a lot of comments whenever something happens about how "SpaceX might get to launch sooner", and it kinda annoys me because there's a pretty well set schedule and they aren't going to cut corners just because an opportunity arose. You are right though that scheduling might let this move up a bit.
  - azernik 8y ago
    Yeah, poking around this thread I'm also seeing people underestimating the lead time required for any changes to the CCP timeline.
PopeDotNinja 8y ago
What about the Chinese? They've launched people into space.
- jpatokal 8y ago
  The Chinese are excluded from the ISS. Their Tianzhou spacecraft is a direct Soyuz descendant, so it might be possible to dock it to the ISS, but this was not a part of the plan so it hasn't been designed for it, much less tested. Plus I also don't see the Trump administration asking China for help anytime soon...
  - mikejb 8y ago
    The US would collaborate with China on this if it would make financial sense. It could even be an opportunity to straight things out a bit. That being said, I agree that it's not going to happen. First, Tianzhou is currently cargo-only, for which there are enough alternatives. Second, the US is close to getting back their own human access to space (through Boeing and SpaceX), and that would probably be ready before sufficient restructuring & testing on Tianzhou is completed. Edit: Shenzhou is the human rated version of Tianzhou, so the main question would be whether it can dock with the ISS. (There's not just the dock itself that has to fit, but there's additional limitation on what kind of maneuverability system can be used close to the ISS). Also, the next Shenzhou flight was originally scheduled for 2018 and got delayed to 2020 - so this is highly unlikely going to be an option (No Mark-Watney-style rescue is required unless the docked Soyuz modules are 'grounded' as well)