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I parsed Taleb differently to you, I think part of his point is most behavioural economics is only looking at whether behaviour is rational or not and the indiv
by pongogogo 8y ago
I parsed Taleb differently to you, I think part of his point is most behavioural economics is only looking at whether behaviour is rational or not and the individual level, but they are missing the fact that we're a herd species and behaviour has meaning as well in aggregate - there's second order effects. His point about nudges etc is that it is dangerous, as we focus on first order effects but ignore second order effects. This is what creates large risks, for example, defaulting everyone into one type of pension plan which is itself defaulted into one style of index investing, most of the indexes use the same tracking algorithm creates second order risks that we don't understand where there were none previously.