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> China would not be where it is without the great effort (though hamfistedly implemented) it put into controlling growth I would not advocate this authoritari

> China would not be where it is without the great effort (though hamfistedly implemented) it put into controlling growth I would not advocate this authoritarian approach (I'm not saying you are). Part of the solution is what you said earlier, education. But population stabilizes on it's own as a country goes through the Demographic Transition. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition Or for something more light-hearted: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QsBT5EQt348 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QsBT5EQt348

im3w1l 8y ago
The demographic transition is just a theory. UN have already had to adjust population projection upwards as the curves have not followed the theory as close as predicted.
- SCHiM 8y ago
  Do you have a reference to this?
  - barry-cotter 8y ago
    https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2013/08/demographic-transition-stalled-sub-saharan-africa/ https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2013/08/demographic-transiti... > fertility decline in Africa has generally proceeded more slowly than in other parts of the world, with several cases of “stalls” and even small fertility increases over time https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/22036/AfrDemographicTransitionOVERVIEW.pdf https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/2... > While this study looks at lessons from East Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa currently exhibits two unique demographic characteristics. First, it is the only region in the world that is still at a very early stage of the demographic transition. As such, it can learn from other regions that have gone through the same journey to ensure that demographic change paves the way to deeper and more sustainable prosperity. As this book points out, this path is neither easy nor automatic. Success requires actions in differ- ent policy realms that are time-coordinated, adapted to the current level of the demographic transition, and results-driven. The second unique characteristic of the region’s demographic picture is its heterogeneity. While a small number of countries are far along the transition, with fertility rates that are below replacement levels, many others are exhibit- ing surprising delays in the transition in the last 10 years. Some countries are showing very little movement along the natural transition and are stuck at very high fertility rates. These large differences argue for differentiated policies that target different sectors and processes. They also argue for country to country learning and knowledge sharing.
ElBarto 8y ago
What China did was their only option. We need to realise that sometimes the "authoritarian approach" is the only option available. There is no other way to put the brakes on steep population growth especially as this is usually linked to culture and education. But education may work 20 years down the line, which is too late for such an issue. The demographic transition is also besides the point as the issue is to stabilise population at a lower level that it would have done 'naturally'.
adrianN 8y ago
The question is whether the population will naturally level out before or after the last old growth rain forests are gone. We need to empower women in those countries and enable people to make a living in other ways than selling timber and slash-and-burn agriculture. Breeding and selling rare butterflies[1] is one option that I've heard of, but obviously that doesn't scale. I don't find it unreasonable to just pay people for not cutting down rain forests. First world countries have a responsibility here. After all we cut down all our old growth forests and now demand that developing countries don't do the same. [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kenya-butterflies/kenyans-sell-butterflies-to-save-rainforest-idUSL0378588120070803 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kenya-butterflies/kenyans...
- Jedi72 8y ago
  People always throw these concepts around as though 'First world countries' is 4 or 5 individual people. I didn't cut down any forest, neither did my family. Perhaps my family trade was training birds in those forests, so I was personally very disadvantaged by cutting them down. So should I have to pay other countries not to cut theirs down now? My point is, these high-level thoughts are theoretically sound but can never be applied to the real world.
  - adrianN 8y ago
    If you value intact ecosystems and diversity you should definitely pay for them. You can't just tell poor countries not to exploit the resources that they have and hope they comply. Especially when your country's wealth is build on clear cutting, strip mining, and pollution. Even if you think that the past has nothing to do with you, the simple argument that you have money and like Orangutans and they have nothing but a forest should be enough.

im3w1l 8y ago

The demographic transition is just a theory. UN have already had to adjust population projection upwards as the curves have not followed the theory as close as predicted.

SCHiM 8y ago
Do you have a reference to this?
- barry-cotter 8y ago
  https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2013/08/demographic-transition-stalled-sub-saharan-africa/ https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2013/08/demographic-transiti... > fertility decline in Africa has generally proceeded more slowly than in other parts of the world, with several cases of “stalls” and even small fertility increases over time https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/22036/AfrDemographicTransitionOVERVIEW.pdf https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/2... > While this study looks at lessons from East Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa currently exhibits two unique demographic characteristics. First, it is the only region in the world that is still at a very early stage of the demographic transition. As such, it can learn from other regions that have gone through the same journey to ensure that demographic change paves the way to deeper and more sustainable prosperity. As this book points out, this path is neither easy nor automatic. Success requires actions in differ- ent policy realms that are time-coordinated, adapted to the current level of the demographic transition, and results-driven. The second unique characteristic of the region’s demographic picture is its heterogeneity. While a small number of countries are far along the transition, with fertility rates that are below replacement levels, many others are exhibit- ing surprising delays in the transition in the last 10 years. Some countries are showing very little movement along the natural transition and are stuck at very high fertility rates. These large differences argue for differentiated policies that target different sectors and processes. They also argue for country to country learning and knowledge sharing.

ElBarto 8y ago

What China did was their only option. We need to realise that sometimes the "authoritarian approach" is the only option available. There is no other way to put the brakes on steep population growth especially as this is usually linked to culture and education. But education may work 20 years down the line, which is too late for such an issue. The demographic transition is also besides the point as the issue is to stabilise population at a lower level that it would have done 'naturally'.

adrianN 8y ago

The question is whether the population will naturally level out before or after the last old growth rain forests are gone. We need to empower women in those countries and enable people to make a living in other ways than selling timber and slash-and-burn agriculture. Breeding and selling rare butterflies[1] is one option that I've heard of, but obviously that doesn't scale. I don't find it unreasonable to just pay people for not cutting down rain forests. First world countries have a responsibility here. After all we cut down all our old growth forests and now demand that developing countries don't do the same. [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kenya-butterflies/kenyans-sell-butterflies-to-save-rainforest-idUSL0378588120070803 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kenya-butterflies/kenyans...

Jedi72 8y ago
People always throw these concepts around as though 'First world countries' is 4 or 5 individual people. I didn't cut down any forest, neither did my family. Perhaps my family trade was training birds in those forests, so I was personally very disadvantaged by cutting them down. So should I have to pay other countries not to cut theirs down now? My point is, these high-level thoughts are theoretically sound but can never be applied to the real world.
- adrianN 8y ago
  If you value intact ecosystems and diversity you should definitely pay for them. You can't just tell poor countries not to exploit the resources that they have and hope they comply. Especially when your country's wealth is build on clear cutting, strip mining, and pollution. Even if you think that the past has nothing to do with you, the simple argument that you have money and like Orangutans and they have nothing but a forest should be enough.