Trump won by around 80k votes in 3 states. Very small changes would have produced a dramatically different outcome. For example, if you'd had the same election

Trump won by around 80k votes in 3 states. Very small changes would have produced a dramatically different outcome. For example, if you'd had the same election with the projected demographics of 2020 (remove all of the people who died between 2016 and 2020, add in voters who were [14,18) in 2016, naturalized citizens, greater proportion of gen x and millennials etc..), its likely he would have lost (note this isn't the same thing as saying he's guaranteed to lose in 2020). If you had the 2016 election with the demographics of 2024, he definitely would have lost. As it stands, Trump has absolutely abysmal approval ratings for such a strong economy. If we have a recession sometime before he leaves office, I think a complete Democratic takeover of the House Senate, and Presidency is very likely. Right now 538 is showing around an 80% chance that Republicans lose the House next month.