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You've pretty much got the gist. Pre-Lampert, the SHLD bull thesis centered on its real estate assets... huge quantity of long-term leases way below current ma
by trepanne 8y ago
You've pretty much got the gist. Pre-Lampert, the SHLD bull thesis centered on its real estate assets... huge quantity of long-term leases way below current market prices. Other hidden assets included intangibles such as brands.
Lampert came in and started running the financial engineering playbook, most crucially the various spinoffs, of which the most important one was the spinoff of Seritage, which is the embodiment of the "RE asset value backstop" strategy. What Seritage does is to partner with the mall landlords (operators like Simon Property Group) to redevelop the former Sears footprint into something more in line with current market preferences (think subdividing into Dave & Buster's, Pandora, etc.) and re-rent the space at a big markup. This is the shell that holds the pea.
None of this benefits from the decline of Sears' core retail operations. Plan A was always to return Sears to profitability, which would have made a killing for ESL. He has struggled mightily to do so, and failed just as mightily. A large amount of effort, capital, brain damage, and reputational has been incurred without a commensurate reward.
But again, Lampert's a very sharp guy; downside protection is in place. Besides the spinoffs (which ring-fenced a bunch of capital), he's migrated a bunch of ESL's investment up the ladder to a creditor position, including big holdings of "fulcrum" securities (unsecured bonds) that will give him a big voice in BK.
A+ for financial engineering; F for business ops. Overall grade: C-.
Not a zero-sum conspiracy working as designed, just desperate wriggling off the hook of a failing workout. Turns out you can't cost-cut Sears to profitability, and competing with Amazon is harder than one might think (?)
- mrfredward 8y agoI think that's as good an explanation of Lampert's plans for Sears as anything I've read. One thing I'll add--with how much malls are struggling, Lampert's play for real estate isn't going to work out anywhere near as well as he might have hoped. Sears's, as an anchor for many malls, used to have extremely valuable real estate. Now, with the so-called "retail apocalypse" happening, the market for that space isn't what it used to be.
- trepanne 8y agoYou might be surprised. Seritage is a public company (stock ticker is SRG); check out their SEC filings and investor presentations. They list several names of new tenants who've been taking up their redeveloped floor space. I think the desirability of the former Sears stores varies dramatically by location; some of them are hopeless ghost towns, but many of them apparently have bright hopes for non-department store tenants. Check it out. There's a reason Warren Buffett bought into SRG. This part of the strategy is working well.