5 ms·

I don't think that Trump style Republicans will be in power long, so in addition to worrying about the short term consequences of gutting the EPA, I that the bl

I don't think that Trump style Republicans will be in power long, so in addition to worrying about the short term consequences of gutting the EPA, I that the blowback when they aren't in power will be so extreme that we'll go to far in the other direction.

deleted 8y ago
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poulsbohemian 8y ago
Until Gen X and younger are in political power, things will continue as they are. I'm sure there are outliers, and admit it is difficult to make generalizations about an entire generation, but it's pretty evident that Baby Boomers are in support of anything that keeps their taxes low, yet ironically supports their Medicare, Social Security, and defense industry spending. https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2016/11/09/the-2016-elections-generation-gap-infographic/#6240672e497b https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2016/11/09/the-20... https://theweek.com/articles/627505/how-baby-boomer-psychodrama-infected-2016-election https://theweek.com/articles/627505/how-baby-boomer-psychodr...
- learc83 8y ago
  Trump won by around 80k votes in 3 states. Very small changes would have produced a dramatically different outcome. For example, if you'd had the same election with the projected demographics of 2020 (remove all of the people who died between 2016 and 2020, add in voters who were [14,18) in 2016, naturalized citizens, greater proportion of gen x and millennials etc..), its likely he would have lost (note this isn't the same thing as saying he's guaranteed to lose in 2020). If you had the 2016 election with the demographics of 2024, he definitely would have lost. As it stands, Trump has absolutely abysmal approval ratings for such a strong economy. If we have a recession sometime before he leaves office, I think a complete Democratic takeover of the House Senate, and Presidency is very likely. Right now 538 is showing around an 80% chance that Republicans lose the House next month.
  - mikeyouse 8y ago
    Another way to visualize how close the last election was; If the sparsely populated Upper Peninsula of Michigan were part of Wisconsin and if the Florida Panhandle were part of Alabama, Clinton would've won. These odd little geographic quirks have an enormous impact on our national politics.

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

poulsbohemian 8y ago

Until Gen X and younger are in political power, things will continue as they are. I'm sure there are outliers, and admit it is difficult to make generalizations about an entire generation, but it's pretty evident that Baby Boomers are in support of anything that keeps their taxes low, yet ironically supports their Medicare, Social Security, and defense industry spending. https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2016/11/09/the-2016-elections-generation-gap-infographic/#6240672e497b https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2016/11/09/the-20... https://theweek.com/articles/627505/how-baby-boomer-psychodrama-infected-2016-election https://theweek.com/articles/627505/how-baby-boomer-psychodr...

learc83 8y ago
Trump won by around 80k votes in 3 states. Very small changes would have produced a dramatically different outcome. For example, if you'd had the same election with the projected demographics of 2020 (remove all of the people who died between 2016 and 2020, add in voters who were [14,18) in 2016, naturalized citizens, greater proportion of gen x and millennials etc..), its likely he would have lost (note this isn't the same thing as saying he's guaranteed to lose in 2020). If you had the 2016 election with the demographics of 2024, he definitely would have lost. As it stands, Trump has absolutely abysmal approval ratings for such a strong economy. If we have a recession sometime before he leaves office, I think a complete Democratic takeover of the House Senate, and Presidency is very likely. Right now 538 is showing around an 80% chance that Republicans lose the House next month.
- mikeyouse 8y ago
  Another way to visualize how close the last election was; If the sparsely populated Upper Peninsula of Michigan were part of Wisconsin and if the Florida Panhandle were part of Alabama, Clinton would've won. These odd little geographic quirks have an enormous impact on our national politics.