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I don't agree that $200/bbl oil would be useless: there's plenty of room at that price point for aviation and industrial chemistry. But it doesn't matter, becau
by quotemstr 8y ago
I don't agree that $200/bbl oil would be useless: there's plenty of room at that price point for aviation and industrial chemistry. But it doesn't matter, because there are trillions of barrels of unconventional oil available at between $80-$100/bbl. That's expensive, but not infeasibly so. Short-lived supply shocks notwithstanding, there's no reason oil should rise above that price for a good long time.
- njarboe 8y agoWhat hopefully will happen is that electricity from non-fossil fuels will become cheap enough and technology will become advanced enough that humans can create hydrocarbons from the air and water (CO2 and H2O) at a price that keeps those trillions of barrels in the ground. Or at least lets us stop burning them.
- quotemstr 8y agoSure. The simultaneous trends toward cheaper low-emission sources and more expensive fossil fuels will force a switch at some point. We'll also need negative emissions (i.e., atmospheric carbon removal) at some point too. Now, will it be more expensive to keep drilling and remove the emissions than it will be to cook long-chain hydrocarbons? It's not clear. And it doesn't really matter, since either way you can hit a carbon target.
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]