I agree, but entirely ignoring subsidies also won't inform you when renewables have reached the magical point when they become the "obvious" thing to do regardl

I agree, but entirely ignoring subsidies also won't inform you when renewables have reached the magical point when they become the "obvious" thing to do regardless of global climate change. When they become cheaper than oil/gas without a penny of government discount, then no matter how you slice it renewables have "won." Game over. They will be the future. Environmental benefits, unfortunately, haven't been enough for them to win. The financial battle is really the thing that will tip the scales.